With pressure on Niger mounting, armed intervention unlikely: expert – National | 24CA News
Pressure is mounting on the Niger coup leaders.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, talking on Thursday, mentioned he holds the junta chargeable for the welfare of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, whom the army is holding prisoner.
And ECOWAS, the West African regional energy bloc, mentioned it’s activating its standby power in case negotiations fail and armed intervention is important.
Even as tensions rise in a really unstable area, an skilled in African battle says army motion isn’t doubtless – however the consequence is way from clear.
“It is difficult to predict whether peace will prevail,” Evelyn Namakula Mayanja instructed Global News.
Mayanja, a professor at Carleton University, mentioned the standby power first requires ECOWAS international locations to contribute troops and provides. Côte d’Ivoire has promised a battalion however the nationwide meeting of Nigeria, which has the most important army and would want to produce a lot of the troops, hasn’t authorized any deployments but.
Second, the United Nations Security Council must approve ECOWAS’ deployment.
Mayanja mentioned the UN — at the least, the international locations that help the elected president — doesn’t appear involved with Niger.
“The U.S. the U.K., France, etc., they are now focusing on what is happening in Ukraine,” she mentioned.
“And of course, they are all struggling to ensure that they counteract Russia’s intervention globally.”
Chris Roberts, a political scientist on the University of Calgary, mentioned the Nigerien junta seems to be following the sample set by different power-seizing militaries within the area by entrenching itself and appointing its personal authorities.
ECOWAS and the United States have known as for the army to step apart and reinstate Bazoum, although Roberts says that seems extra unlikely.
Roberts mentioned it’s doubtless the army leaders try to power Bazoum to signal a doc saying he’s resigning, which might give their very own implanted politicians extra legitimacy.
“Unless (there are) some real dynamic shifts here, it’s going to be tough in the short run to get the military government, the key members of that military government, to actually just say, ‘OK, yeah, we’re just done.’”
If the junta can’t maintain on to energy it may threat armed battle, Mayanja mentioned – particularly in an space wracked by Islamist insurgents and excessive poverty,
And the implications, she mentioned, could possibly be devastating as a result of ladies and youngsters are affected most.
“Wars are fought on women’s bodies. They are sexually violated most of the time,” she mentioned.
“I think it is high time that even the UN Security Council and all politicians put their human person human dignity at the centre of their negotiations.”
— with a file from Reuters
© 2023 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
