Could Niger’s turmoil echo Syria — and give extremists a new foothold? – National | 24CA News
Two weeks in the past, West African leaders threatened to invade Niger if the army junta didn’t step down and reinstate the ousted president Mohamed Bazoum.
But these backing the ouster ignored it. And the tanks and troops by no means rolled in.
In the times since, 1000’s of Nigeriens have rallied in assist of their camo-clad leaders whereas the army regimes in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Mali promised to defend Niger’s new military rulers.
And as a substitute of a democracy-restoring invasion, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is now planning a summit on Thursday — and regional specialists say any resolution should be diplomatic, not armed.
But they warn one thing must be executed quickly to stabilize a area already wracked by Islamist insurgency and excessive poverty.
“We all saw what happened in Syria when Syria was under attack and the conflict there and how this led to the formation and expansion of ISIS,” mentioned Olayinka Ajala, a lecturer on the University of Leeds Beckett within the United Kingdom.
“This same thing could actually happen in the Sahel.”
Niger is likely one of the largest international locations within the area. And after final yr’s coup in Mali, Niger has stepped in to grow to be a bulwark in opposition to terrorism, internet hosting an American drone base and French troops.
But the brand new army leaders, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tiani, have minimize ties with these international locations.
And younger Nigeriens attacked the French embassy, the outpost of the nation’s former colonizer.
Ajala, who specializes within the politics of the area, mentioned any additional co-operation is probably going unattainable and that Islamist insurgents stand to realize territory, particularly in a rustic that’s twice the scale of France.
“You can imagine now with limited resources, limited allies, it will be very difficult for the military to continue to police or govern these countries without some of these organizations,” he mentioned.
That would finish years of efforts to struggle the insurgency, which has killed 1000’s and displaced hundreds of thousands.
Fidelis Allen, a professor on the University of Port Harcourt in Nigeria, mentioned the coup – considered one of a number of lately within the Sahel – additionally poses a risk to democratization.
“Where citizens no longer feel that the institutions of democracy will respond to their needs, then they would begin to prefer coups,” he instructed Global News.
With the challenges so extreme and the scenario so precarious, each mentioned the most effective resolution is for the bloc and junta leaders to barter.
“ECOWAS should negotiate and listen to what the people are saying, listen to what the junta is also saying and try to strike a balance,” Allen mentioned.
He added it’s necessary to acknowledge the native “spirit of resistance” amongst younger individuals to push out former colonizers, with whom Bazoum was accused of working intently.
Ajala mentioned ECOWAS ought to push the junta to a brand new chief after new elections are held.
“The most likely outcome is to try and persuade the military … to hand over power as soon as possible … (and to) agree on a transition period,” Ajala instructed Global News, talking from Glasgow, U.Ok.
Allen mentioned there’s a rush to achieve an settlement not simply because regional stability is at stake, but in addition as a result of Niger is extraordinarily poor.
And the sanctions ECOWAS imposed will damage those that already wrestle to search out sustenance.
“The sanctions against a country as poor as Niger is like sentencing someone to death,” he mentioned.
with recordsdata from Reuters’ Boureima Balima and Abdel-Kader Mazou
© 2023 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
