This map shows how Lake Huron’s shoreline is expected to change due to climate change | 24CA News

Shoreline change is an issue plaguing many communities on the Great Lakes, as locals watch sections of it slip into the water.

Now, the Maitland Valley Conservation Authority in southwestern Ontario has created urgently wanted maps displaying the large affect of those shifts in temperatures and climate — massive swaths of Lake Huron’s shoreline might be beneath water in 100 years, together with cottages, waterfronts and a marina. 

“It’s really, to me, the most jarring thing to see,” mentioned Patrick Huber-Kidby about land that is already gone. 

Huber-Kidby is supervisor of planning and laws with the conservation authority, positioned alongside the southeastern fringe of Lake Huron north of London. 

The maps are for municipalities and the county to have higher data for future planning, and so they’re additionally sharing them with the general public

Huber-Kidby mentioned owners, cottagers and others residing on the lake have “seen how much land has disappeared: 10, 20 metres in some areas. It’s an area of land as deep as some people’s subdivision lots that’s gone now, that’s in the lake.” 

See the map right here.

To construct the map, the authority spent three years consulting with geoscientists and engineers, gathering detailed elevation data and wave modelling.

Putting a value on shoreline hazard

Reaction from individuals on the shoreline is combined, mentioned Huber-Kidby. 

Some landowners and cottagers are on the lookout for methods to gradual the erosion, asking, “What can I plant, how can I build, what can I do to not have this be an issue for me in the future?”

Others are “quite passive,” he mentioned, recognizing it is a dynamic shoreline that is shifting inland. 

“They just say, ‘Well, it looks like based on the mapping, I’ve got another 20 years, 30 years, maybe another 50 years with my cottage. That’s it.

“The neatest thing, actually, is to maneuver exterior the hazard,” he said. “In a super situation, there’s room for these cottages to easily transfer again. As the land disappears into the lake, there may be room to actually decide the cottage up and transfer it again, exterior that hazard.” 

Researchers are trying to capture the dollar value of what’s at risk. They’re gathering property values for lands, buildings and infrastructure to get a picture of the anticipated tens of millions of dollars inside the erosion hazard line. 

Water levels up, lake ice down

The bluffs found along southeastern Lake Huron — one of the areas that will be hardest hit by rapid erosion — were laid down by glaciers thousands of years ago and are slowly being eroded by waves, said Chris Houser, vice-president for research and innovation at the University of Windsor. 

“We’re simply on this level the place we have developed on them. As they speed up, we’ll see that harm.” 

Those waves have more opportunity to pummel the shoreline for two reasons:

• Rising water brings waves in closer to land, leading to flooding and property damage. As water levels rise, Huber-Kidby said, “Every expectation is that new data will likely be set sooner or later.” 
• Lake ice: “Every 12 months, we’re seeing much less and fewer lake ice that normally protects the shoreline from winter storms,” said Houser. 

Huber-Kidby agrees.

“If for much less of the 12 months they’ve that pure safety within the winter, they’re getting hit with extra waves. They getting hit with extra vitality — and so they’re eroding extra as a consequence,” he said. 

Bringing new voices to the table

With an improved map and updated data, Huber-Kidby hopes the region will be better equipped to make good decisions.

While municipalities and cottage associations have historically been considered stakeholders, he said the conservation authority is trying to bring new voices to the table, reaching out to Indigenous communities, educators, researchers, engineers and other groups.

“A variety of households have been on the market for a number of generations,” so could have valuable input, Huber-Kidby said.

“They’re on these shorelines. They’ve seen these storms. They’re actually on the forefront of seeing these impacts.”

Getting a snapshot of possible rapid bluff retreat is a priority, with other conservation authorities reaching out to Maitland Valley to replicate their modelling. 

Huber-Kidby said the difference was using climate change forecasting. 

“It’s an precise aspect of the mapping; it impacts the place traces are on the map, Historically, local weather change was in there, however a paragraph at the tip of a report — it isn’t adequate anymore.”

For now, a map in hand can help with the path forward. 

“These techniques are dynamic,” said Houser, who is researching changes to Lake Erie’s north shore to get a snapshot of how sediment is moving. 

“So we will harden the shoreline,we will plant dune grass, we will do nature-based options. But it is nonetheless going to be altering. 

“Are the lakes going to increase because there’s going to be more precipitation? Are the lakes going to decrease because we’re going to go into greater and greater drought? We don’t know,” he mentioned.

“What we need to be able to do is say, ‘This is a very dynamic coast. It’s going to change into the future.’ We need to make sure that we are … working on that coast, that we are living on that coast, in a way that recognizes that change.”