El Niño is back. Here’s what it means for Canada | 24CA News
It was lengthy anticipated, and now it is right here.
The world climate sample El Niño has returned for the primary time in seven years, in line with the World Meteorological Organization, setting the stage for additional excessive climate and hovering temperatures.
The UN company made the declaration on Tuesday, after months of forecasting suggesting the climate sample was more likely to return.
“The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas mentioned in an announcement Tuesday.
While it is a pure phenomenon, that is the primary time El Niño has occurred on high of a baseline of a lot human-caused warming, making the WMO say it’s “playing out in uncharted waters.”
Here’s a breakdown of how El Niño works, and what its return may imply for Canada.
Wait, what’s El Niño once more?
El Niño is a naturally occurring local weather sample related to warming of the ocean floor temperatures within the central and japanese tropical Pacific Ocean.
(The reverse is La Niña, the place the floor of the Pacific ocean cools).
Together, the El Niño/La Niña cycle is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
El Niño happens on common each two to seven years, and usually lasts 9 to 12 months.
It has been linked to excessive climate circumstances, from heavy rainfall in South America to drought in Australia and components of Asia.
The WMO mentioned there’s a 90 per cent likelihood this newest El Niño occasion will proceed by means of the second half of 2023 and is predicted to be not less than of “moderate strength.”
The world’s hottest 12 months on document, 2016, coincided with a robust El Niño — the final one earlier than this 12 months.
How does this relate to local weather change?
Regardless of the place it’s within the El Niño/La Niña cycle, the earth is warming resulting from elevated CO2 within the environment.
The previous three years of La Niña nonetheless noticed a few of the warmest world temperatures on document.
Experts say the warming may have been much more pronounced with out that cooling phenomenon.
A WMO report revealed in May predicted there’s a 98 per cent likelihood that not less than one in all subsequent 5 years would be the warmest on document, beating the document set in 2016.
“I think it’s fair to say that with a with an El Niño that is occurring in a background state of global warming, that extreme weather will become more extreme,” mentioned John Gyakum, a professor in McGill University’s atmospheric and oceanic sciences division.
WATCH | World Meteorological Organization explains the results of El Niño:
What can we anticipate in Canada?
Historically, Canada is generally affected by El Niño throughout winter and spring. Milder than regular winters and comes happen in western and central Canada.
“I would bet a few loonies on the fact that with El Niño, especially if it’s strong and it’s large, we’re in for a warmer than normal winter coming up,” mentioned Dave Philips, senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
It may additionally imply fewer hurricanes in Atlantic Canada, he mentioned.
During the final El Niño, within the winter of 2015-2016, winter in Canada was 1 C to five C hotter than regular throughout all provinces, with particularly unseasonal heat in Quebec, the central Prairies, and Yukon.
Warmer temperatures will not essentially result in a neater winter, Gyakum mentioned.
“It doesn’t mean that you’re going to have balmy weather. On the contrary, we can have very inclement weather,” he mentioned, pointing to Quebec’s devastating 1998 ice storm, which additionally occured throughout an El Niño 12 months.
B.C. has already seen greater than 50,000 hectares of land burn this 12 months because of an unusually heat and dry May. With June temperatures additionally forecast to be above common, meteorologist Johnanna Wagstaffe says forecasters are making ready for a tough summer season.
What about this summer season?
Canada does not are likely to see a direct affect from El Niño till later within the 12 months, mentioned Gyakum.
“Most of the impacts of El Niño occur during the winter time when the jet streams are more active,” he mentioned.
Philips mentioned it is unclear to what extent the worldwide climate sample has affected the summer season to this point, and Canada’s document wildfire season.
But he mentioned sure excessive climate occasions may doubtlessly be linked to El Niño, together with warmth waves within the U.S. south and Mexico, the U.Ok and China.
“I wish I had more of a connection with summer weather and El Niño, but science hasn’t really gotten there yet,” he mentioned. “It takes a lot of working and modelling and statistical analysis to determine that.”
