Canadian market participants see rates staying at 5 per cent in 2023: BoC survey

OTTAWA –

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is not going to elevate charges once more and can begin slicing a little bit later than beforehand anticipated, in keeping with a survey of market contributors launched by the central financial institution on Monday.

The BoC’s second-quarter survey, carried out from June 8 to 19, confirmed a median of the contributors anticipate the financial institution to maintain rates of interest at a 22-year excessive of 5.00 per cent till the tip of 2023, earlier than beginning to reduce charges in March.

In the earlier survey launched in April, when the BoC’s key coverage price was at 4.50 per cent, median expectation was for a price reduce in January. Money markets nonetheless see an opportunity for one more price hike this yr. 0#BOCwatch

A median of 25 contributors now additionally predict a 0.7 per cent gross home product progress on the finish of 2023, as a substitute of a 0.1 per cent contraction forecast within the final survey.

Earlier this month, the BOC mentioned there was extra demand within the economic system because it raised its GDP forecast and prolonged the timeline for inflation to return to the financial institution’s two per cent goal.

The financial institution has hiked charges 10 occasions since March 2022 and mentioned it might elevate charges additional due to the chance of inflation stalling above its 2 per cent goal.

In the survey launch on Monday, the median forecast for annual inflation is for 3.0 per cent on the finish of this yr, in contrast with 2.7 per cent beforehand. Expectations for the inflation price to drop to 2.2 per cent by end-2024 had been unchanged.

The central financial institution expects inflation to stay round three per cent over the following yr earlier than dropping to its goal by mid-2025, six months later than it beforehand anticipated.

(Reporting by Ismail Shakil and Steve Scherer in Ottawa; Editing by David Ljunggren and Marguerita Choy)