Your guide to 2023 HOF election results (6 ET, MLB Network)
The reply comes at 6 p.m. ET tonight, when MLB Network will reveal the outcomes of the 2023 Baseball Writers’ Association of America poll.
After a deluge of BBWAA inductees — 22 in all from 2014-20 — the highway to Cooperstown has so much much less site visitors as of late. The BBWAA didn’t elect anyone in ’21, and final yr David Ortiz — a first-ballot choice — was the one participant to achieve the mandatory 75% threshold for induction.
McGriff’s unanimous choice by the 16-member Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee ensures there will probably be a summer time ceremony. But with Scott Rolen the one participant on the 2023 poll who acquired at the very least 60% help final yr, the potential for one other BBWAA-specific shutout looms massive.
Here are solutions to essentially the most urgent questions going into Tuesday evening:
Extensive and unique protection of the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame announcement begins at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday on MLB Network, with a reveal of the outcomes by Hall of Fame president Josh Rawitch at 6 p.m.
The announcement present, anchored by Greg Amsinger, Brian Kenny and Lauren Shehadi, will probably be simulcast at fb.com/baseballhall.
The returnees (with 2022 election proportion listed in parentheses) are: Bobby Abreu (8.6%), Mark Buehrle (5.8%), Todd Helton (52.0%), Torii Hunter (5.3%), Andruw Jones (41.4%), Jeff Kent (32.7%), Andy Pettitte (10.7%), Manny Ramirez (28.9%), Alex Rodriguez (34.3%), Scott Rolen (63.2%), Jimmy Rollins (9.4%), Gary Sheffield (40.6%), Omar Vizquel (23.9%) and Billy Wagner (51.0%).
The first-timers are: Bronson Arroyo, Carlos Beltrán, Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, J.J. Hardy, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Jhonny Peralta, Francisco Rodríguez, Huston Street, Jered Weaver and Jayson Werth.
Who has the perfect likelihood of induction?
As famous above, his title was checked on 63.2% of ballots submitted final yr, leaving him simply 47 votes shy of choice. We don’t know what number of ballots had been submitted this yr — Rolen’s sixth of 10 potential years on the poll — however it’s honest to guess Rolen would want to select up round 50 further votes to get by way of the door.
As of this writing, per Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker, Rolen had a internet acquire of 11 votes amongst 158 public ballots (final yr, there have been 394 whole ballots) and was polling at 80.1%. Typically, gamers’ percentages go down within the precise outcomes, as voters who maintain their ballots non-public have typically tended to vote for fewer gamers.
If chosen, Rolen could be the 18th third baseman within the Hall and the primary since Chipper Jones (2018).
Who is essentially the most attention-grabbing first-timer?
Interestingly, per Baseball Reference, Beltrán has the very same profession wins above alternative mark (70.1) as Rolen. Given how a lot WAR has come to affect baseball author voting, one would surmise — from that stat alone — that Beltrán’s Hall of Fame case is about as robust as Rolen’s.
The distinction, after all, is that Beltrán has the added hurdle of his involvement within the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal — involvement that price him his job as supervisor of the Mets earlier than he managed a single sport. The 2017 season was Beltrán’s final of 20 seasons as a participant, and it goes with out saying that his Hall case is rather more rooted within the 19 seasons that got here earlier than it than the yr during which he posted a .666 OPS as a 40-year-old. But his function within the scandal is a transparent complication in a course of during which first-timers who aren’t apparent locks for the Hall are sometimes rebuffed, anyway (Rolen, for example, was solely chosen on 10.2% of ballots on his first strive in 2018).
But with Beltrán polling at 56.6%, ultimately test, he’s a lock to achieve the mandatory 5% required to stay on the poll, and he has by far the perfect likelihood of eventual election of any of the first-timers this yr.
How typically does the BBWAA pitch a shutout?
Not as typically as Walter Johnson, however it has been identified to occur.
The empty end result in 2021 marked the ninth time (out of 78 earlier votes) that the BBWAA didn’t elect any gamers. It additionally occurred in 1945, 1950, 1958, 1960, 1965, 1971, 1996 and 2013.
Is this anyone’s final likelihood?
Yes. Jeff Kent, who appears to be like unlikely to be chosen.
The 2000 NL MVP was additionally a five-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger at second base. Kent’s 351 house runs as a second baseman are essentially the most all-time. But he’s by no means gotten a lot love on this course of. His 32.7% exhibiting final yr was his finest in 9 tries. He may fare higher in a small-committee vote.
It can also be price noting that that is Gary Sheffield’s second-to-last likelihood. He hit 509 house runs, however his connection to the BALCO scandal has clouded his case. He’s acquired 40.6% help two elections in a row, so time is operating out.
What are another key names to look at?
Todd Helton and Billy Wagner each crossed the 50% threshold for the primary time final yr — an necessary milestone on the highway to 75.
Helton is on the poll for the fifth time, so, even when it doesn’t occur for him this yr, he’s received loads of time to bridge the hole. It’s a bit extra pressing state of affairs for Wagner, who’s on the poll for the eighth time. But each have seen their help develop by leaps and bounds lately. Helton was at simply 16.5% in 2019, Wagner at 16.7. As the cluster of clearly worthy candidates has cleared, Helton and Wagner have each gotten nearer scrutiny.
Andruw Jones — on the poll for the sixth time — can also be on a significant upswing. His 41.4% exhibiting final yr was a big leap from 7.5% in 2019. He might see that momentum proceed this yr.
When is the 2023 induction ceremony?
It will probably be held Sunday, July 23, on the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown, N.Y.
