Why Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah has been struggling on the mound to start 2023

Baseball

Published 27.04.2023

Why Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah has been struggling on the mound to start 2023

No matter which means you slice it, Alek Manoah is an outlier.

From his imposing body to his speedy ascent to the foremost leagues to his large persona, the Toronto Blue Jays starter tends to face out.

His fashion of pitching does, too, although not at all times in the way in which you’d anticipate. Guys along with his measurement and ferocity are usually energy pitchers, however final season Manoah was lifeless common when it got here to fastball velocity (52nd percentile) and strikeout charge (fiftieth percentile).

What’s made him so good so rapidly has been his capability to generate smooth contact. Between 2021 and 2022 Manoah produced a 2.60 ERA, the third-best quantity amongst 114 pitchers who pitched a minimum of 200 innings pitched in that span. His FIP (3.51) — a metric primarily based solely off strikeouts, walks and residential runs — ranked thirty first.

The secret sauce for Manoah is popping balls in play into outs. His BABIP allowed in 2021-22 (.245) was the fifth-lowest within the aforementioned pattern regardless of the actual fact the Blue Jays defence as a complete conceded a BABIP of .290.

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It’s a tricky talent set to belief as a result of there are issues that occur past a pitcher’s management as soon as the ball leaves the bat, however Manoah offered 308.1 innings of proof that instructed he’s robust to sq. up.

The Statcast numbers supported that concept, too, as he ranked eightieth percentile or higher in barrel charge and ninetieth percentile or higher in hard-hit charge in each seasons.

So far in 2023, the magic hasn’t been there. For the primary time in his profession, the contact high quality in opposition to Manoah has been excellent.

The large right-hander is combating different facets of his recreation as properly, however essentially the most shocking a part of his robust begin has been the way in which opponents are hammering his choices.

Although we’re taking a look at a small pattern, Manoah has by no means had a month with a hard-hit charge like this (represented by the small purple dot within the high proper nook of the chart under):

As a end result, his unimpressive ERA (5.13) is definitely underselling his struggles. Manoah’s anticipated ERA sits at a bloated 6.99, greater than twice final 12 months’s quantity (3.31). Of the 99 pitchers who’ve confronted a minimum of 100 batters this season, that xERA ranks 94th.

There are a few attainable causes for this growth, however two pitches that stand out as culprits. Manoah’s slider has historically been his finest pitch and opponents have by no means slugged higher than .324 in opposition to it prior to now.

This 12 months that quantity is at a whopping .684. Opponents’ xSLG is a much more cheap .429, however that’s nonetheless excessive for the right-hander’s signature providing.

Hitters may very well be having a neater time with it as its motion hasn’t been as dynamic this season. Last 12 months its horizontal break was 6.1 inches above common. This 12 months it’s solely 3.9 inches above common.

That’s nonetheless spectacular, however that quantity of motion decline may make a fabric distinction. It’s notable that simply 19 per cent of Manoah’s strikeouts this season have come by way of the slider in comparison with 35.6 per cent final season.

Manoah’s sinker seems to be the opposite pitch contributing to his contact-management points. Not solely did he expertise a velocity dip on it early within the 12 months, however commanding it has been a problem this season.

In 2022 he did a great job of hugging the arm facet edge with it…

… however this 12 months it’s lived up and over the dish:

Hitters outcomes in opposition to Manoah’s sinker in 2023 haven’t been devastating however that appears to be primarily a operate of luck. They’re slugging simply .357 in opposition to it, however an xSLG of .592 signifies that hazard is lurking if the pitch stays the place it doesn’t belong.

Because Manoah is not any strikeout artist, his route again to the kind of effectiveness Blue Jays followers are used to most will doubtless come by way of an improved capability to induce smooth contact.

Some of that may very well be so simple as his command with pitches like his sinker regressing to the imply or his velocity bouncing again because it did in his final begin.

Fixing his seemingly diminished slider, alternatively, may be slightly extra sophisticated.

It’s secure to imagine he’ll be higher than he’s been so far. The magnitude of that enchancment will go a good distance towards figuring out how sturdy his 2023 is when it’s all mentioned and performed.