What’s left for Blue Jays in free agent outfield market

Speaking with media Monday, Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins left little ambiguity as to his entrance workplace group’s subsequent low season purpose.

“Most of our focus has been on run prevention,” Atkins mentioned, citing the additions of Erik Swanson, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Kiermaier. “Now, we’ll shift to offensive improvements.”

And what form may that offensive enchancment take?

“The easiest way to do it is to think about an offensive, ideally left-handed complement to our team,” Atkins mentioned. “And the easiest way to think about playing time is in the outfield at this point.”

Now, it’s definitely attainable the Blue Jays tackle that by way of commerce. They could need to in the event that they’re aiming to boost the workforce’s offensive ceiling — a phrase Atkins used a number of occasions on Monday.

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Toronto’s younger catching trio of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno has been, and can proceed to be, the main focus of hypothesis till one thing offers. And the Blue Jays haven’t traded from inside their growth system this winter. They might nonetheless money in minor-league futures for present-day major-leaguers in the event that they so select.

But the simplest path is by way of free company, an space during which Atkins mentioned the Blue Jays “are not limited financially.” The drawback is that this winter’s market of left-handed hitting outfielders was shallow to start with and has solely thinned out since as Brandon Nimmo, Masataka Yoshida, Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Michael Brantley and Joey Gallo got here off the board.

What’s left? Not a lot in the way in which of ceiling. But some fascinating potential choices ought to the Blue Jays fail to discover a commerce companion. Here are 11 of the left-handed hitters that performed outfield final season who stay out there.

Michael Conforto

It says one thing about how picked-over this market section is that the far-and-away best choice remaining final performed 15 months in the past. Not to say the very fact he produced a comparatively peculiar .232/.344/.384 line with a 106 wRC+ in that almost all latest full season. Nor the substantial uncertainty surrounding his well being.

But such are the circumstances of the free-agent pool and Conforto’s calamitous entry into it, which noticed the correct fielder wrestle by means of a disappointing stroll 12 months in 2021, have his worth submarined by a qualifying supply and injure his proper shoulder throughout MLB’s lockout, an ailment that finally required surgical procedure and value him his age-29 marketing campaign.

Before all that, Conforto was a extremely productive, heart-of-the-order power, batting .259/.358/.484 with a 128 wRC+ from 2015 by means of 2020. He performed all three outfield positions in his mid-20s, finally discovering a house in proper discipline the place he graded as a nicely above-average defender with wonderful arm power. If he’d continued producing by means of his stroll 12 months and hadn’t harm his shoulder, Conforto would’ve simply been taking a look at signing a nine-figure free-agent deal.

Be he didn’t and he gained’t. Conforto’s now in search of to show he’s nonetheless the All-Star-calibre participant he as soon as was, re-establishing his worth so he can money in throughout future off-seasons. That opens pandora’s field of inventive, short-term contract constructions constructed round opt-outs, incentives or choices. And Conforto’s agent, Scott Boras, has negotiated loads of these prior to now to assist different purchasers dealing with unsure markets maximize their earnings.

For what it’s price, Conforto nonetheless posted his usually robust chase (81st percentile) and stroll (87th) charges all through 2021’s struggles and you may make a case he deserved higher outcomes for the standard of contact he made. The unfavorable hole between Conforto’s xwOBA (.350) and precise wOBA (.322) was the nineteenth largest throughout MLB that season. And the gulf between his xSLG (.436) and precise SLG (.384) was the fifteenth widest. Those are robust course of indicators.

But that was a very long time in the past and so much’s occurred since. Can Conforto nonetheless flash plus-arm power and high-exit velocities after shoulder surgical procedure? How a lot runway will he must regain his sea legs in opposition to big-league pitching after a 12 months off? It’s an advanced scenario fraught with uncertainty. Signing Conforto comes with a variety of threat. But whichever membership takes it on additionally opens itself as much as the potential reward.

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Jurickson Profar

It’s been an extended, unusual journey for Profar from getting into 2013 as MLB’s consensus No. 1 general prospect at shortstop to ending 2022 as a league-average left fielder. Over the last decade in between, he’s moved by means of three organizations, repeated shoulder accidents and virtually each place on the diamond, which is both a damning reflection of his waning utility or a commendable account of his perseverance and flexibility, relying in your perspective.

Either means, the switch-hitter performed an on a regular basis function for a membership that went to the NLCS final season, hitting .243/.331/.491 with a 110 wRC+ for the San Diego Padres. He graded slightly above or under common in left discipline, relying in your most popular defensive metric and completed with 2.5 fWAR — a career-high by far and a exceptional enchancment from the -0.7 he produced in 2021.

Profar’s been alternating above- and below-average seasons like that for 5 years working now. His exit velocities and barrel charges have lengthy been unimpressive, however he’s overcome that by demonstrating wonderful strike-zone administration, posting 82nd percentile or increased marks since 2021 in strikeout, stroll, whiff and chase charge. Still, the volatility in his outcomes makes it powerful to inform which model of Profar a membership will likely be signing for getting into his age-30 season.

Going ahead, Profar could possibly be a disciplined, high-contact producer able to fielding throughout. Or he could possibly be sub-replacement stage with out a true defensive dwelling. Something as fluky as batted-ball luck might show the distinction between these above or under common outcomes, making Profar an unsure wager with restricted upside.

David Peralta

Despite an influence dip after his deadline commerce from Arizona to Tampa Bay, Peralta nonetheless completed 2022 with above-average offensive numbers, slashing .248/.316/.415 with a 104 wRC+. That’s roughly in step with what the veteran’s been doing all through his regular, productive MLB profession. And whilst he enters his mid-30s, he’s produced 1.7 fWAR every of his final two seasons and ranked inside MLB’s 86th percentile in outs above common.

That’ll play. What more and more gained’t is Peralta’s bat in opposition to left-handed pitching, which he’s hitting .238/.302/.361 in opposition to for his profession and more and more been shielded from over the past two seasons. But as a platoon piece able to offering above-average defence in both outfield nook plus good-enough pace on the basepaths, Peralta could be a simple match on any aggressive workforce’s bench.

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Tyler Naquin

Naquin boasts eye-opening uncooked instruments, together with one of many sport’s strongest outfield arms and most exit velocities rating throughout the prime 15 per cent of the league every of the final two seasons, but hasn’t confirmed sturdy sufficient or playable sufficient in opposition to left-handed pitching to get essentially the most out of them. But he’s seen essentially the most constant taking part in time of his profession over the past two years and held his personal on the sport’s highest stage, batting.252/.311/.454 with a 102 wRC+.

Naquin has performed loads of centre discipline, however his restricted vary and big throwing arm make him greatest suited to proper getting into his age-32 marketing campaign. And there’s little motive to make use of him in a consequential plate look in opposition to a left-handed pitcher contemplating his dramatic platoon splits since 2021 (113 wRC+ vs. righties; 49 wRC+ vs. lefties). But when deployed in circumstances that play to his strengths, Naquin can present loads of worth in a part-time function whereas flashing some massive Statcast measureables alongside the way in which.

Rafael Ortega

Ortega bounced between a half-dozen organizations earlier than lastly establishing himself as an MLB common over the past two seasons with the Chicago Cubs, producing a .265/.344/.408 line with a 108 wRC+ whereas proving an unspectacular-yet-playable defender in any respect three outfield positions. But that wasn’t sufficient to persuade the Cubs to tender him a contract this winter — MLB Trade Rumors estimated Ortega’s arbitration wage at $1.7-million — because the membership sought a centre-field improve and located it in Cody Bellinger.

Entering his age-31 season, Ortega gained’t hit for a lot energy however works a powerful plate look, evidenced by his strong strikeout (19.9 per cent), stroll (11.9), chase (25.8) and call (81.6) charges in 2022. He’ll even steal you a base from time to time (Ortega has swiped a dozen luggage every of the final two seasons).

The 122 wRC+ Ortega posted in 2021 was maybe inflated by a .349 BABIP, however the 96 wRC+ with a more-reasonable .285 BABIP he produced in 2022 isn’t something to sneeze at from a fourth outfielder. Ortega’s isn’t an attractive profile. But it’s a helpful one in a bench function.

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Ben Gamel

A gentle platoon piece for the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers all through his mid-20s, Gamel was DFAed solely a month into the 2021 season after getting off to a depressing begin in his first 12 months with Cleveland’s group. But he discovered a house by way of waivers with the Pittsburgh Pirates and turned issues round, batting .242/.337/.383 with a superbly league-average 100 wRC+ since.

The 30-year-old doesn’t grade nicely defensively in both outfield nook, however he offers a pesky plate look in opposition to right-handed pitching with a 112 wRC+ and 13.9 per cent stroll charge in opposition to the other facet of the platoon over the past two seasons. Gamel’s by no means hit for a lot energy however makes up for it by drawing free passes at a excessive clip (10.2 per cent profession stroll charge) and stubbornly refusing to broaden the zone (eightieth percentile chase charge in 2022). High on-base, left-handed bats don’t develop on bushes and a few workforce someplace must have room for Gamel’s on its bench.

Jake Lamb

It was a tumultuous 2022 for Lamb, who started the 12 months on a minor-league cope with the Los Angeles Dodgers, fought his option to the big-leagues by June, was traded to the Mariners on the deadline and located himself DFAed within the ultimate days of the season after scuffling down the stretch.

It isn’t simple to be constantly productive by means of a lot upheaval, however Lamb confirmed robust flashes at occasions. He began the 12 months on a tear at triple-A, batting .290/.395/.537 with a 131 wRC+ and 15 homers in 61 video games; he posted a .771 OPS over 25 video games with the Dodgers earlier than his commerce; and he completed 2022 with a 105 wRC+ on the major-league stage, regardless of ending the season in a depressing droop.

The 32-year-old is much faraway from the 29- and 30-homer campaigns he put up with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2016 and ‘17. His strikeout rate’s surged since as a result of fastballs he as soon as punished have begun lacking his bat. But Lamb’s are nonetheless nicely above-average chase charges and he walked in 10.8 per cent of his plate appearances whereas bouncing round a half-dozen organizations over the past three seasons. And the profession third baseman’s demonstrated versatility throughout that point, logging innings in left and proper discipline.

Adjustments are doubtless wanted to assist Lamb make extra constant contact. But there’s little questioning the standard of it when he connects, as Lamb has produced barrel charges of 11.6 and 11.9 per cent within the majors in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This is the type of big-measurables bat that data-driven groups take low-cost fliers on, hoping to be those holding on if he all of a sudden places all of it collectively.

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Robbie Grossman

After a powerful, two-season run during which he hit .239/.354/.430 with a 118 wRC+ throughout 863 plate appearances between 2020 and 2021, Grossman crashed to earth final season, batting a paltry .209/.310/.311 — good for an 82 wRC+.

The switch-hitter’s 11.7 per cent stroll charge was as sturdy as at all times — Grossman has walked in 12.8 per cent of his profession plate appearances — but the 33-year-old misplaced almost all the energy he demonstrated in his 23-homer 2021 season and ran the very best full-season strikeout charge (27 per cent) of his profession. You can throw these indicators into the regarding pile, proper together with Grossman’s tenth percentile or worse ranks in barrel and hard-hit charge final season.

The best-case situation is that he was taking part in harm or combating a correctible flaw in his swing. The worst-case is that he’s not in a position to produce strong contact in opposition to pitches within the zone. The former could be manageable and lend hope to a bounce-back, contemplating Grossman’s robust monitor report. But the latter might eat into the elite stroll charges which have lengthy supported Grossman’s manufacturing as pitchers develop much less cautious of difficult him on the plate.

Either means, Grossman has lengthy confirmed extra productive in opposition to left-handed pitching, and people splits turned much more dramatic in 2022, as he posted an .879 OPS in opposition to lefties vs. a .509 when dealing with righties. That suggests he could possibly be higher suited to a platoon function going ahead on the other facet of the one the Blue Jays are trying to find.

Cesar Hernandez

A second baseman by commerce, Hernandez made 10 appearances in left discipline and 9 at third base final season with the Washington Nationals, demonstrating the defensive versatility that might make the switch-hitter a helpful bench piece. But any membership shopping for in will want options for the 32-year-old’s puzzling offensive drop-off over the past 12 months.

Hernandez, who entered the season with a 98 wRC+ for his profession, produced a paltry 79 wRC+ with a .248/.311/.318 slash line in 2022. He adopted up 2021’s 21-homer marketing campaign by leaving the yard solely as soon as over 617 plate appearances. He flashed a most exit velocity of 110.8 mph — constant together with his profession norm and throughout the prime third of the league — however his 84.8-mph common on balls in play was amongst MLB’s lowest, suggesting one thing’s gone awry together with his swing.

Is there a means to assist Hernandez faucet again into his energy extra constantly and recapture the league-average offensive manufacturing he offered earlier in his profession? Any workforce signing him had higher ensure of it lest they join one other 12 months of what could also be a sudden, early-30s decline.

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Dominic Smith

There are few higher examples of the warning required when citing numbers from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season than Smith, who hit .316/.377/.616 with a 166 wRC+ over a 50-game pattern that 12 months. It wasn’t fully out of line with the .282/.355/.525 line and 134 wRC+ he posted over 82 video games in 2019. But it appears to be like now to have completely been the high-water mark of his profession, as Smith has hit .233/.298/.435 with an 82 wRC+ over 194 video games since.

Still, shoulder points coupled with the New York Mets’ crowded outfield and first-base combine didn’t do Smith any favours, as he spent a lot of the final two seasons both taking part in harm, filling a part-time function or caught at triple-A. That’s the needs-a-change-of-scenery trifecta. And, at solely 27, Smith has loads of bodily prime remaining to recapture the pedigree that made him a top-100 prospect earlier than his 2017 debut.

Corey Dickerson

Entering his age-34 season, Dickerson’s days as a 2-3 fWAR common are nicely behind him. But he’s confirmed able to producing at a league common clip in a strict platoon function over the past three seasons, batting .266/.313/.403 since 2020 — good for a 97 wRC+. His extraordinarily restricted arm primarily anchors him to left discipline, however he’s nonetheless fast sufficient and will get first rate sufficient jumps to carry his personal on the place when he isn’t serving as a DH and pinch-hit possibility in opposition to right-handed pitching.

With yearly low strikeout and stroll charges, Dickerson’s manufacturing depends on his means to seek out good outcomes on balls on play. The 112.1-mph most exit velocity he demonstrated in 2022 — an 82nd percentile mark — helps in that regard. But Dickerson doesn’t strike the ball that onerous with any consistency, commonly working common exit velocities that rank towards the underside of the league. There’s little ceiling in that profile. But there must be a comparatively secure ground as nicely, offered Dickerson doesn’t all of a sudden lose his really feel for placing the bat on the ball in opposition to righties.

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