What to make of Blue Jays' struggling relievers
TORONTO — So far, one of the crucial dependable constant traits of the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays is their tendency to drift from one disaster to a different.
At the start of the season, Kevin Gausman wasn’t himself, Chris Bassitt was stumbling out of the gate and the crew didn’t appear to have a fifth starter it may belief. The rotation points finally abated, with the damage Alek Manoah suffered on Wednesday bringing uncertainty again.
For many of the 12 months, the most important impediment between the crew and a profitable report has been an incapability to attain runs, although. While a few splashing performances in opposition to AL Central foes don’t have anybody believing Toronto’s lineup is a juggernaut, after scoring almost six per sport over its final eight, the Blue Jays’ offensive woes really feel much less acute than they’ve for many of the season.
That’s opened the door for a brand new calamity, particularly a bullpen that has underperformed by a large margin.
Last season, Toronto’s relievers have been eighth within the majors in ERA (3.68), ninth in fWAR (5.1) and third in strikeout price (26.0 per cent). In 2024, they rank twenty eighth (4.77), twenty ninth (-1.1) and twenty seventh (19.6 per cent) by the identical measures.
Although many groups expertise loads of turnover within the bullpen, simply 10 of the 186.2 innings Blue Jays relievers have logged this 12 months have come from guys who weren’t a part of the group final 12 months — and two of these have been offered by infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Toronto has obtained 94.6 per cent of its reduction innings from a group of arms that mixed to provide elite leads to 2023.
When it involves relievers, year-to-year volatility is a good expectation, however the Blue Jays have skilled radical decline. In order to resolve whether or not this development is one which’s more likely to proceed, we’re going to place the microscope on every underachieving reliever and attempt to decide what stage of concern their early-season struggles ought to warrant.
To qualify for that examination, pitchers needed to be performing worse than meaningfully worse than they did in 2023 (ruling out Yimi García, Trevor Richards, Zach Pop, Chad Green, Nate Pearson and the duo of Brendon Little and Paolo Espino — who mixed for simply 4.2 innings within the majors final 12 months). They additionally should stay with the group (eliminating Mitch White and Wes Parsons, however not the not too long ago demoted Erik Swanson, who remains to be on the 40-man roster).
With these relievers taken out of the combination, what stays is a quartet of underperformers dragging down the Blue Jays’ outcomes. After giving Toronto 202.2 innings of two.52 ERA ball in 2023, Jordan Romano, Génesis Cabrera, Tim Mayza and Swanson have produced a 6.30 mark this 12 months — conceding nearly as many runs in two months (52) as they did over their full 2023 marketing campaign (62).
Jordan Romano
2024 stats: 8.56 Ok/9, 2.53 BB/9, 2.63 HR/9 in 13.2 innings with a 6.59 ERA and seven.23 xERA
What appears to be the issue?: Romano’s early-season woes stem from two sources. The first is that his strikeout price has taken a significant dive. Between 2021 and 2023, his strikeout price (30.3) ranked thirty fourth amongst 203 certified relievers.
This season, it’s a under common 20.7 per cent, pushed by the very fact he’s solely gotten a 6.5 per cent whiff price from his fastball — a pitch he throws almost half the time (47.9 per cent) that opponents whiffed at loads final 12 months (32.3 per cent).
He’s additionally struggled to maintain the ball within the park. Three residence runs in a comparatively small pattern might not look like a giant deal however he conceded simply six final season and 4 in 2021. While fastball worries are on the root of the strikeout struggles, the slider has been weak to massive cuts (.621 SLG in opposition to).
How excessive is the priority stage?: Medium-high.
Romano’s velocity is consistent with his profession norms and his management is strong, however there are some odd issues taking place with the motion of his pitches.
The vertical motion on the righty’s stuff is in step with what we’ve seen earlier than, however the horizontal lower differs considerably from final season.
|
Pitch |
2023 H-movement vs. avg. |
2024 H-movement vs. avg. |
|
Fastball |
-41% |
+6% |
|
Slider |
+12% |
-45% |
Romano has gone from a pitcher whose four-seam fastball doesn’t run with a slider possessing glorious gloveside motion, to a man whose slider isn’t doing a lot horizontally with a fastball displaying middling motion in that path.
That doesn’t look like a very good commerce, contemplating how vital transferring away from hitters — or into the ft — is for a slider.
Here’s an instance of how Romano’s breaking ball moved final 12 months, making its method to the nook of the plate:
This season, the vertical motion stays outstanding, however the sliders aren’t doing a lot to maneuver away from right-handed hitters. This meatball from Romano’s tough outing on Sunday is an effective instance.
Meanwhile, the run Romano has gained on his four-seam fastball doesn’t appear to have a lot utility for the vertically oriented pitch.
If something, Romano may’ve been benefitting from the bizarre lack of horizontal motion on his fastball earlier than. Sometimes separation from the norm will be helpful, even when it means much less motion. For instance, in Marco Estrada’s profession 12 months of 2015, his changeup had 5.6 inches much less drop than the MLB common and hitters would usually swing under it in anticipation of extra motion.
Until Romano’s stuff begins transferring extra prefer it did previously, will probably be onerous to mission the identical stage of success for him that he’s loved in recent times.
Tim Mayza
2024 stats: 6.62 Ok/9, 4.58 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9 in 17.2 innings with a 5.60 ERA and 6.80 xERA
What appears to be the issue?: A fast take a look at his Baseball Savant web page would counsel nearly all the pieces.
Not solely are the topline outcomes ugly, Mayza has misplaced his trademark capacity to generate grounders in 2024. Between 2021 and 2023, he produced metronomic groudball charges between 57.9 and 58.8 per cent, however he’s presently sitting at 37.3.
The southpaw’s strikeout price is increased and he’s additionally strolling extra hitters, however usually the way in which he retains the ball on the bottom can assist mitigate points in these areas. Not a lot this season.
How excessive is the priority stage?: High.
Unlike the opposite pitchers on this listing, Mayza has misplaced some actual juice, along with his fastball velocity dipping 1.5 mph from his 2023 common.
He’s not a pitcher who intuitively appears to depend on velocity, nevertheless it’s clear that his sinker isn’t taking part in almost as nicely round 92 mph because it did within the 93-94 mph vary. The motion on the pitch is in step with what we noticed final 12 months, however hitters have been capable of raise it much better than earlier than.
Mayza is permitting a launch angle of 11 on the providing in 2024 after by no means topping 5 in earlier seasons. The southpaw can also be struggling to get hitters to likelihood his sinker outdoors the zone with a chase price of 19.4 per cent — a major downgrade from final 12 months’s 31.1 per cent. It’s potential that misplaced velocity is giving hitters a greater likelihood to acknowledge if Mayza’s signature providing will land out of the zone.
Although the veteran’s slider hasn’t skilled notable regression, the sinker is his bread-and-butter. Right now, it’s not working.
Génesis Cabrera
2024 stats: 5.23 Ok/9, 5.23 BB/9, 1.74 HR/9 in 20.2 innings with a 4.79 ERA and 4.93 xERA
What appears to be the issue?: Cabrera’s ERA may very well be worse, however he’s walked as many hitters as he’s struck out and conceded twice as many residence runs as he did throughout his stint with the Blue Jays final season.
The 27-year-old has been comparatively competent in opposition to left-handed hitters with an inexpensive .683 OPS in opposition to, which isn’t an enormous downgrade from final 12 months’s quantity (.630).
Cabrera has been a catastrophe in opposition to righties, although. When he doesn’t have the platoon benefit, opponents are slashing .432/.500/.636 in opposition to him. Those numbers are virtually troubling from the left, contemplating 54.5 per cent of the hitters he’s seen have been right-handed.
How excessive is the priority stage?: Medium.
Cabrera’s outcomes are so dangerous, they can’t be dismissed. It’s additionally value recalling that from the start of 2022 to his Blue Jays debut, he created extra destructive fWAR (-1.0) than any MLB reliever.
The affordable baseline with him might be decrease than Blue Jays followers most conversant in his work in 2023 may assume — and his below-average run suppression outcomes aren’t stunning.
At the identical time, Cabrera’s underlying numbers are dismal in comparison with even essentially the most pessimistic projection and he’s a tricky pitcher to determine.
He hasn’t misplaced a notable quantity of velocity or motion, and the most important alteration to his pitch combine is utilizing his cutter greater than ever. That pitch has been extraordinary (plus-6 run worth), in order that’s not on the root of his points.
Both his fastball and sinker have been completely clobbered in 2024 and it’s onerous to say why, past some spotty location. Both pitches have been strong previously, regardless of the very fact Cabrera is hardly recognized for portray the corners.
It looks like Cabrera is more likely to flip some form of nook, however his 2023 work in Toronto will at all times be a tricky bar to clear.
Erik Swanson
2024 stats: 6.59 Ok/9, 2.63 BB/9, 3.29 HR/9 in 13.2 innings with a 9.22 ERA and eight.81 xERA
What appears to be the issue?: Swanson’s capacity to suppress onerous contact has fluctuated all through his profession, however in 2024 he’s gotten hammered. If a hitter produced the anticipated slugging Swanson has allowed (.655), he would rank fourth within the majors, between Shohei Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr.
The veteran has additionally seen his strikeout price completely crater, going from glorious final season (28.6 %) to nicely below-average (15.8 per cent).
While Swanson has been hit round and didn’t accumulate Ks, his stroll price has stayed consistent with his profession norms, that means he hasn’t misplaced the zone utterly.
His largest subject has been a splitter that merely hasn’t fooled opponents. Last season, opponents slugged .266 in opposition to it and whiffed 34.3 per cent of the time. In 2024, these numbers sit at 1.071 and 25.9.
How excessive is the priority stage?: High sufficient that the Blue Jays despatched their main setup man from 2023 to the minor leagues on Tuesday.
Despite poor efficiency that necessitated that step, there may be each cause to consider that Swanson will likely be efficient once more for Toronto within the close to future.
It’s value remembering the right-hander handled each forearm irritation and a harrowing household expertise through the spring and pitched only one.2 Grapefruit League innings.
There isn’t a single statistic that paints a reasonably image of his 2024, however his velocity and motion numbers are consistent with what he confirmed in 2023. Fundamentally, Swanson is wielding the identical stuff that has been efficient for him previously, that means that location is the first subject — and whether or not he’s tipping pitches must be investigated.
While we’re witnessing a lowlight for the right-hander, there’s each cause to consider he’ll kind himself out. When that may occur is up within the air.
