What the Blue Jays learned about their core in 2022
When evaluating group constructing, it’s intuitive to emphasise the standard of gamers a entrance workplace brings on from outdoors the group.
Hitting on marquee free-agent signings and profitable trades is the obvious method a baseball operations division can excel, however making evaluations on gamers outdoors your constructing is only one piece of the puzzle.
Equally vital is the interior evaluations you make by yourself guys. Every yr groups collect extra details about which of their current gamers are value constructing on, giving totally different roles to, or shifting on from.
The Daulton Varsho commerce, as an illustration, required the Blue Jays to spend as a lot time considering the worth and profession trajectory of Gabriel Moreno — a possible long-term constructing block — as they did doing their homework on Varsho.
Every yr there may be extra to find out about your individual gamers, and as 2022 involves a detailed it’s a great time to assessment what the Blue Jays learn about their core that they didn’t previous to the season.
In order to be thought-about a core participant — by my admittedly arbitrary definition — it’s a must to:
1. Be beneath group management by a minimum of 2025
2. Project to be an above-average common in 2023 (More than 2.0 fWAR by Steamer)
3. Have performed all of 2022 with the Blue Jays
4. Be a place participant or beginning pitcher (until you’re one of many prime, prime relievers the volatility is just too excessive)
With that in thoughts, right here’s a abstract of what the Blue Jays discovered about their core in 2022 (plus some notes on notable guys who don’t match this standards however shall be round for some time):
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
What they discovered: The groundball worries aren’t gone for good
After Guerrero Jr. broke out in 2021 with an elite offensive season, it was straightforward to ascertain him establishing himself as a perennial MVP candidate.
That might nonetheless occur, however he took a notable step again in 2022 as his wRC+ dropped from 166 to 132. In retrospect, some regression to imply isn’t stunning, however based mostly on Guerrero Jr.’s uncooked instruments and prospect pedigree it felt like he had taken off for good after 2021.
While his 2022 was nonetheless stable, his groundball price spiked again to the degrees he confirmed in his first two seasons.
Even at his greatest in 2021 he hit grounders at an above-average price, however when half of his balls in play are within the filth it will likely be powerful for him to succeed in his ceiling.
It seemed like he’d buried that fear final yr, however it’s returned to ‘ongoing concern’ standing.
Bo Bichette
What they discovered: You know precisely what you’re going to get from his bat
Bichette entered 2022 with just one full season beneath his belt, and whereas his outcomes had been good his offensive profile was a bit odd.
The shortstop doesn’t stroll a lot, strikes out a good quantity and possesses energy that’s extra above-average than elite. For that profile to lead to wonderful manufacturing they should convert a disproportionate variety of balls in play into hits.
For many of the yr, Bichette’s potential to try this wavered. He entered September with a pedestrian 106 wRC+ thanks largely to a .320 BABIP that was nicely under his profession common (.347).
From September 1 to the tip of the season Bichette hit .406/.444/.662 and when it was all stated and carried out his numbers for the yr seemed extraordinarily much like what he’d produced the earlier two years — from his general numbers to his BABIP.
|
Season |
wRC+ |
wOBA |
BABIP |
|
2020 |
120 |
.353 |
.352 |
|
2021 |
122 |
.354 |
.339 |
|
2022 |
129 |
.347 |
.347 |
Alejandro Kirk
What they discovered: Defence doesn’t must be a weak spot
Kirk’s bat has at all times been tantalizing, however coming into 2022 it was honest to conceptualize him as a part-time catcher with defensive limitations who was going to wish loads of DH at-bats.
While he could by no means win a Gold Glove, Kirk modified that notion by obliterating his presumed defensive ceiling. Last season the 24-year-old threw base runners out at an above-average price, let fewer balls get previous him in 654 innings (13) than he did in 338 in 2021 (20), and ranked within the 94th percentile amongst framers.
That colossal step ahead modified him from an intriguing position participant, to one of many Blue Jays’ foundational items.
His work with the bat was spectacular (129 wRC+), however that wasn’t notably shocking as his anticipated stats in 2021 indicated he might do extra offensively. Kirk’s energy really took a slight step again together with his energy in 2022 and his xwOBA (.351) was worse than his 2021 quantity (.373).
Alek Manoah
What they discovered: The gentle contact stuff is for actual
Thanks to his imposing bodily presence Manoah has the look of a pure energy pitcher, however he’s higher at inducing innocent contact than blowing hitters away.
As a rookie his ERA was 58 factors decrease than his FIP and he allowed an abnormally low .246 BABIP. It was value questioning if he obtained a bit fortunate in his first yr and could possibly be in for a step again in 2022.
It could be an understatement to say that didn’t come to go. Manoah gave the Blue Jays 196.2 innings of two.24 ERA ball final season, a efficiency that landed him third in Cy Young voting.
Once once more he confirmed the power to permit gentle contact, and we now have over 300 innings of Manoah conceding a .245 BABIP. In every of the final two seasons the right-hander has been within the prime 10 per cent of pitchers at suppressing hard-hit balls and prime 20 per cent at stopping barrels.
When it involves producing innocent balls in play, Manoah is now a confirmed commodity.
George Springer
What they discovered: How to handle Springer’s workload
In 2021 Springer was excellent for the Blue Jays when he suited up, however a number of accidents held him to only 78 video games.
Given his age and the best way he performs the sport, it’s inconceivable to completely decrease harm threat with Springer, however Toronto must be pleased with getting 133 video games out of him in 2022.
This was the group’s first season having Springer from April to September and so they performed him at DH 40 occasions and had been unafraid to provide him upkeep days all through.
It’d be arduous to assert they cracked the code completely, as luck performs a major position. For instance there’s nothing the group might’ve carried out to keep away from the flukey collision Springer suffered within the playoffs.
What the Blue Jays did do is create a template they will work off of in 2023, as a result of their plan was largely profitable in 2022. When Springer performed he produced at a excessive stage offensively (132 wRC+), graded out as an roughly common centre fielder, and even produced his highest stolen base complete (14) since 2015.
It shall be attention-grabbing to see how a transfer to taking part in primarily proper subject will have an effect on his workload administration subsequent yr.
Kevin Gausman
What they discovered: The AL East fits Gausman simply wonderful
Before reaching the San Francisco Giants in 2020 Gausman had been a stable starter at occasions however he’d by no means lived as much as his prospect pedigree.
When he took off with San Francisco, it was value questioning if escaping the DH and dealing within the pitcher-friendly parks of the NL West was a major a part of his breakout.
When Toronto signed Gausman to a $110-million contract the membership was taking an opportunity on 43 begins with San Francisco being much more consultant of his abilities than the remainder of his profession.
The Blue Jays had been proper to make the leap. In 2022 Gausman led the American League in FIP and earned down-ballot Cy Young consideration. He even introduced his stroll price to a career-low stage and posted his lowest HR/9 since 2014.
Gausman could have taken his star flip in San Francisco, however his stuff performs wherever.
BEYOND THE INNER CORE
Jose Berríos: It didn’t take lengthy for Berríos to go from a positive factor to a query mark. In each season between 2017 and 2021 the right-hander was an above-average starter with an ERA- between 92 and 80 and a FIP- between 92 and 82.
Whether you needed to judge him by run-suppression or fielding-independent numbers he was superb however not actually elite year-in, year-out.
Last season he posted a brutal 5.23 ERA with depressing contact administration numbers.
It’s not arduous to be bullish on his potential to bounce again based mostly on his age (28), monitor document, and stuff. It’s no assure that he’ll, although, and Steamer is looking for a 2.0 fWAR season, which has him falling simply out of the core.
Cavan Biggio: Biggio was a participant who was arduous to pin down getting into 2022. After a powerful begin to his profession, his sub-replacement-level 2021 created doubt about his viability as a MLB participant by his most excessive critics.
The versatile Biggio charted a center course in 2022, failing to succeed in the peak of his first two seasons, however producing 1.3 fWAR as a helpful contributor with a useful left-handed bat and a few defensive versatility.
Last season was vital for Biggio to indicate he hadn’t misplaced all of his early-career magic, however 2023 might add a wrinkle into evaluations of his offensive potential because the elimination of the shift might assist him considerably. Biggio was the most-shifted Blue Jay in every of the final two seasons, with lower than 20 p.c of his at-bats coming in opposition to conventional defences.
Santiago Espinal: Espinal had a predictable offensive comedown in 2022 as his BABIP magic dissipated and he was uncovered as a participant who crushes southpaws (137 wRC+) and struggles with righties (86 wRC+).
His glove is nothing in need of elite, and might carry his bat, however regardless of incomes an All-Star nod, Espinal is kind of who he gave the impression to be heading in 2022.
He’s a particularly high-level utility participant who can fill in as a starter in the midst of the infield for prolonged stretches if obligatory.
Jordan Romano: The hard-throwing right-hander didn’t present a lot new data in 2022, however slightly bolstered what was already identified about him.
For essentially the most half he recreated his wonderful 2021 marketing campaign, which was vital as that was his first full season as a better. Romano has now established himself as a high-leverage stopper on the MLB stage — even if you happen to may not categorize him as one of many majors’ prime relievers.
The 29-year-old skilled a slight dip in velocity final season, and a extra important dip in strikeouts. He additionally gave up extra arduous contact than he did in 2021. Despite these points, it’s powerful to quibble with the outcomes.
Toronto’s bullpen doesn’t venture to impress, however Romano isn’t what ails a bunch with extra amount than high quality.
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