These 7 players broke out in 2022. Can they do it again?
To be probably the greatest 50 gamers in baseball in a particular season is an unbelievable accomplishment. More than 1,000 people play in an enormous league sport in a given 12 months. To be one of many 50 greatest? Incredible.
But doing it as soon as is one factor. The trick is having the ability to do it once more. When you take a look at the highest 50 gamers by FanGraphs’ model of wins above substitute (WAR) in 2022, some are apparent superstars whom you anticipate to see there yearly: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Nolan Arenado, Mike Trout. But different guys are surprises, ones that few folks most likely noticed coming. Did they simply have one notably nice 12 months? Or was this a sustainable breakout?
Here’s a take a look at seven of essentially the most shocking prime 50 gamers from 2022, and whether or not they can repeat the feat in 2023.
Swanson certain picked the proper time — proper earlier than free company — to have the very best 12 months of his profession. The No. 1 total decide within the 2015 Draft received his first Gold Glove Award and had the very best OPS+ of his profession at 115. The key was, for the primary time, hitting for energy and common on the similar time (.277, 25 homers). That plus distinctive protection (second in MLB in Outs Above Average) will completely get it finished — and can get suitors lining up for you.
The Cubs are definitely relying on it, after signing Swanson to a seven-year, $177 million contract. But it certain looks like an open query. Even in his career-best season, Swanson’s numbers on the plate paled compared to all the opposite massive free agent shortstops this previous offseason, and his defensive metrics, as nice as they had been in 2022, had been just a little out of line with the remainder of his profession. The Cubs are paying him to be a prime 50 participant transferring ahead. It may be very a lot up for debate whether or not he’ll attain these heights once more.
Francisco Lindor had a unbelievable 12 months in 2022. According to fWAR, he was the seventh-best participant within the Majors. But, suffice it to say, Guardians followers didn’t actually miss him that a lot — not with the best way Giménez performed in his second season after arriving as a key piece of the Lindor commerce. Even the brightest projections didn’t see Giménez making this a lot of a leap. A .371 OBP? Giménez grew to become, in some ways, the persona of that Guardians crew: gifted, feisty, relentless. And he makes about, uh, $30 million lower than Lindor.
He’s solely 24, so you’ll suppose the sky is the restrict. But the mixture of his excessive chase fee and low stroll fee does provide you with some motive for pause. Maybe he can construct on final 12 months and grow to be a true celebrity. But even when he takes a step again, Giménez remains to be positioned to be the beating coronary heart of this forever-fun crew for years to return.
McNeil is commonly regarded as a throwback participant who stirs reminiscences of Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs, guys who simply bought base hits, again when the sport wasn’t so analytically pushed. But McNeil is a superb participant each old-school and new-school sensible. The good factor about hitting .326, like McNeil did final 12 months, is that even for those who solely have a 6.8 % stroll fee (comparatively low), it nonetheless provides as much as a .382 OBP, which was eighth in MLB. He additionally had the bottom strikeout fee in a full season of his profession. Every crew can be elated to have a Jeff McNeil.
McNeil has proven constant bat-to-ball expertise, and that low-ish strikeout fee will get increasingly helpful annually as strikeouts stay excessive all through the Majors. The solely questions listed here are age and well being. McNeil is older than you suppose; he’ll flip 31 on April 8. Can he maintain up? If he performs 148 video games like he did final 12 months, I wager he surprises us by being proper again within the prime 50 once more in 2023.
For his first three seasons, Edman stuffed a little bit of a utility position whereas taking part in primarily second base. But when the Cardinals demoted Paul DeJong to Triple-A final May, it was Edman who took over as the first shortstop. Many questioned that call on the time, however Edman ended up being probably the greatest all-around gamers within the sport. He hit 13 homers, stole 32 bases in 35 makes an attempt and thrived defensively, ending tied for fourth amongst shortstops with 11 Outs Above Average regardless of making solely 74 begins there. You may not have realized that Edman had a better WAR than Julio Rodríguez or Adley Rutschman final 12 months, however he did. And he’s nonetheless solely 27.
It does appear unlikely. His hitting tailed off round midseason final 12 months earlier than rebounding late, and he’s not notably recognized for plate self-discipline. But he doesn’t should be probably the greatest 50 gamers in baseball to be an enormous plus for the Cardinals. And he certain appears to be like like he’s going to stay at shortstop for a very long time.
The Braves knew, once they referred to as up Harris, that they had been getting a terrific defensive middle fielder. But who on the planet thought he would hit like this (19 homers, 20 steals, a .297 common and a 135 OPS+)? Harris was a monster proper out of the gate, altering every thing concerning the Braves immediately and establishing himself as a centerpiece of the whole roster. The shock wasn’t that the Braves gave him a contract that might run by way of 2032, however that it didn’t prolong into infinity.
He hadn’t proven something like this within the Minor Leagues, so just a little little bit of regression needs to be fairly anticipated. But he’s additionally the kind of sensible participant who could hold getting higher as he learns extra concerning the league. One factor is obvious: Your crew needs he performed for them.
Varsho needs to be the very best fielding outfielder who has additionally caught a no-hitter. (Tyler Gilbert, again in 2021.) Varsho’s transition from catcher to unbelievable outfielder has been a very unbelievable one, and the numbers again up what your eyes instructed you: No outfielder had extra Outs Above Average final 12 months than Varsho (18), regardless that he solely began 103 video games on the market. The bat picked up in 2022 as effectively. Varsho misplaced a couple of factors in OBP however made up for it with an influence surge, totaling 27 homers. Now he will get to do it with a crew with severe World Series aspirations.
The Blue Jays will fortunately take all of the homers he desires to hit, however he’s up north due to his protection, which ought to contribute to a drastically improved unit in Toronto. Given the year-to-year fluctuations in defensive metrics and Varsho’s OBP limitations, it is going to be troublesome for him to repeat his 2022 WAR. But like with Edman, the Jays don’t want him to be one of many prime 50 gamers to be an enormous enchancment for his or her crew.
The different man within the Cardinals’ notorious Marcell Ozuna commerce that introduced Sandy Alcantara to Miami, Gallen — later flipped to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm Jr. — was one of many solely NL pitchers who might have been fairly in comparison with Alcantara final 12 months. The right-hander was every thing the D-backs might have dreamed of in 2022, dropping his ERA practically two runs, throwing 184 innings and ending fifth in NL Cy Young Award voting. After an up-and-down 2021, you puzzled if Gallen’s success throughout the shortened 2020 schedule was a fluke. But now he’s a full-fledged ace.
For all of Gallen’s excellence final 12 months, his strikeout fee was principally similar to 2021. The principal distinction was his MLB-leading fee of 5.9 hits allowed per 9 innings, supported partially by a .237 BABIP that was simply a profession low. Is that sustainable? Seems like a stretch. He’s nonetheless the ace in Arizona, although, even permitting for a small step again.
