The secret to Acuña’s historic basestealing

There’s no higher figurehead for the 2023 stolen-base motion than Ronald Acuña Jr.

With the brand new guidelines creating extra freedom of motion on the bases — pickoff limits, the pitch timer and greater bases — nobody is taking benefit just like the Braves’ electrical famous person.

After 100 video games, Acuña leads the Majors with 48 stolen bases. He’s on tempo for 78 steals, which might be the primary 70-steal season since Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009. And that is earlier than you even get into his 37-homer tempo and the way he might make power-speed historical past.

But that is in regards to the steals. There are 5 key steps to Acuña’s stolen-base success.

Let’s break down Acuña’s season — and the way the brand new guidelines are powering it.

1) He creates numerous possibilities to run … and takes them

Step 1 of stealing a base is getting on base, and Acuña, batting .327 with a .407 on-base share because the Braves’ leadoff man, will get on base extra usually than practically anybody else. Only Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto have reached base extra occasions this season, they usually’re hardly the burners Acuña is.

All these occasions on base translate to lots of possibilities to steal. Acuña ranks within the prime 10 within the Majors in stolen-base alternatives — that is when he is on first or second, with the subsequent base open in entrance of him.

Most stolen-base alternatives, 2023

Of course, having the alternatives to steal does not imply something if you do not have the pace and aggressiveness to grab them. And on this new stolen-base setting, Acuña is seizing them like by no means earlier than.

Acuña has 56 steal makes an attempt in his 212 alternatives. He runs over one in each 4 occasions he has the possibility. That’s one of many highest charges within the league — 4 occasions as usually as the typical MLB participant — and the best price of his profession.

Most SB makes an attempt per alternative, 2023
Of 191 gamers with 100+ alternatives

Acuña’s SB makes an attempt per alternative by season
2018: 10.5%
2019: 18.0%
2020: 10.2%
2021: 15.3%
2022: 19.1%
2023: 26.5%

What’s totally different about 2023? It’s truly not Acuña’s pace (extra on that in a second). It’s the state of the sport round him. That’s what has set the stage for his 48 stolen bases.

2) He has the basestealing aggressiveness of a 20-year-old rookie once more

Now let’s dive into Acuña’s Statcast information. We can use Statcast to take a look at the 2 primary elements of his stolen bases: his leads and his speeds.

Here’s what may shock you: Acuña would not actually stand out from different basestealers when it comes to getting huge jumps, or swiping baggage with elite pace.

Let’s give attention to steal makes an attempt of second base, since there are much more of these, and it is a better normal to research basestealing. Acuña has tried 43 steals of second this season. On these makes an attempt, his common major lead distance (when the pitcher begins his supply) is 11.5 ft. His common secondary lead distance (when the pitcher releases the pitch) is 22.3 ft. His fiftieth percentile dash pace is 28.5 ft/sec.

Those are pretty typical leads for a giant league runner, and whereas Acuña’s pace on his stolen bases is definitely superb (MLB common dash pace is 27 ft/sec), it isn’t on the elite finish (30-plus ft/sec).

But there’s a huge distinction inside Acuña’s personal metrics. While his pace has leveled off, he is taking considerably larger leads in 2023 in comparison with earlier seasons.

Acuña is a bolder basestealer proper now than he is been since his rookie season, when he was a 20-year-old at peak pace who was taking the league by storm.

Acuña’s leads on SB makes an attempt of 2B, by season
2018: 12.0 foot major, 23.3 foot secondary
2019: 10.4 foot major, 22.2 foot secondary
2020: 11.4 foot major, 21.7 foot secondary
2021: 9.7 foot major, 20.6 foot secondary
2022: 10.0 foot major, 21.4 foot secondary
2023: 11.5 foot major, 22.3 foot secondary

With the pickoff limits and pitch timer in 2023, Acuña is testing pitchers far more than he did in 2021 and ’22. His leads are virtually two full ft larger than they had been simply two years in the past.

He’s placing himself in place to steal bases en masse, though his pure pace is not as excessive as in seasons previous.

Acuña’s max dash pace on a steal try of second base this season is 29.0 ft/sec, a mark many prime basestealers will eclipse. But he is reached 28 ft/sec or sooner on 22 totally different profitable steals. Only 5 different gamers have even stolen second base 22 occasions, interval, at any pace — Esteury Ruiz, Bobby Witt Jr., Wander Franco, Starling Marte and Corbin Carroll.

With Acuña’s newfound aggressiveness in main, that strategy of bulk steals at stable pace is paying off.

3) Pitchers are risking priceless stepoffs to cease him

Pickoff makes an attempt are at a premium now that the foundations have modified. With the two-disengagement restrict, not solely does every stepoff from the rubber deliver the pitcher one step nearer to an computerized balk, it additionally brings an elevated threat of the runner taking a much bigger lead and stealing. 

Every time the pitcher steps off or throws over to first, the runner grows more likely to steal second. Because the pitcher has much less wiggle room remaining to carry him on. 

When the pitcher has not but stepped off, runners on first are stealing about as soon as each 68 pitches. After one pickoff try, they steal each 17 pitches. After two pickoff makes an attempt, they steal on over one in each 10 pitches. 

Stepping off the rubber has turn into a double-edged sword. It’s nonetheless a important tactic in controlling the run sport, however the threat of a stolen base rises each time you do it.

But with Acuña, pitchers are determined to carry him on, even with the specter of him swiping the bag with ease in the event that they fail to choose him off. They’ve stepped off or thrown over much more occasions towards Acuña than every other baserunner this season.

Runners with most disengagements induced at 1B, 2023

Of course, Acuña’s 37 profitable steals of second base this season — with solely six caught stealings, an 86% success price — exhibits you the way little these pitchers have actually been in a position to do to forestall him from taking that bag.

4) Catchers are pushing themselves to the restrict to catch him

Now we come to the final line of protection towards Acuña: the catcher.

Catchers league-wide are feeling the squeeze. With their pitchers restricted in how a lot they will management the run sport, catchers are compelled to go sooner than ever earlier than in an — usually futile — effort to corral basestealers. Acuña is the proper instance.

Here’s how catcher pop occasions to second base have modified throughout the league this season.

MLB avg. pop time to 2B by season
2016: 2.02 seconds
2017: 2.02 seconds
2018: 2.02 seconds
2019: 2.01 seconds
2020: 1.99 seconds
2021: 1.99 seconds
2022: 1.98 seconds
2023: 1.96 seconds

With stolen bases determined by fractions of a second, that is a giant distinction.

Catchers are being pressured into getting the ball all the way down to second base as quick as they presumably can, even at the price of accuracy. Statcast’s Caught Stealing Above Average metric breaks down catcher throwing into every particular person element, together with accuracy, and this 12 months, league-wide, catcher accuracy is the worst it has been within the Statcast period.

Acuña is the proper instance. Catchers have a 1.91 second pop time towards him this season when he is stealing second base — as quick as they’ve ever been towards him in his profession, and as quick as they have been towards any runner in 2023.

Fastest catcher pop occasions by baserunner, 2023
Ronald Acuña Jr. — 1.91 seconds
Randy Arozarena — 1.91 seconds
Wander Franco — 1.91 seconds
Owen Miller — 1.91 seconds

Catcher pop time to 2B vs. Acuña by season
2018: 1.97 seconds
2019: 1.96 seconds
2020: 1.98 seconds
2021: 1.91 seconds
2022: 1.98 seconds
2023: 1.91 seconds

Like what’s taking place throughout the Majors, these catchers are additionally shedding accuracy towards Acuña as they prioritize a fast draw. The throw pace and launch elements of their Caught Stealing Above Average towards him are a web optimistic, whereas their accuracy element is a detrimental.

But they actually don’t have any alternative. Being sooner is their solely hope to catch a runner like Acuña.

The estimated caught-stealing share for a league-average catcher this season is 20%, already the bottom it has been in a season within the Statcast period. But with Acuña operating, opposing catchers see their estimated caught-stealing share drop to 14%.

It’s onerous for even one of the best catchers to nab basestealers in 2023 — the league’s 80% stolen-base success price is a historic tempo. And Acuña is not any atypical basestealer.

5) Even with sooner catchers, Acuña is stealing at will

Let’s watch Acuña in motion. Here he’s stealing towards 5 of the highest catchers in baseball. 

SB No. 48 vs. Connor Wong (July 25)

Start with Acuña’s most up-to-date stolen base — towards Wong, who’s tied for one of the best amongst all MLB catchers with +7 Caught Stealing Above Average. Wong had a superb 1.89 second pop time right here, however Acuña bought leap (24.7 foot secondary lead) and stole the bottom with a 28.0 ft/sec dash pace.

SB No. 26 vs. Gabriel Moreno (June 4)

Moreno is the catcher tied with Wong atop the CSAA leaderboard. Here’s Acuña stealing off him. Acuña’s 24.0 foot secondary lead helped him beat Moreno’s 1.94 second pop time.

SB No. 21 vs. J.T. Realmuto (May 25)

Realmuto is the king of pop time. Acuña nonetheless stole third towards him, taking a giant secondary lead of 32.8 ft and reaching a dash pace of 28.6 ft/sec to beat Realmuto’s 1.45 second pop time and provides the Braves a double-steal.

SB No. 20 vs. Will Smith (May 23)

Smith could not do something about this one, getting pitch to throw on and posting a 1.81 second pop time to second base. But Acuña reached a 28.8 ft/sec dash pace and beat it.

SB No. 2 vs. Willson Contreras (April 4)

Contreras is among the strongest-armed catchers within the sport, and he put up the quickest pop time towards Acuña this season right here at 1.79 seconds. But he misplaced some accuracy on a short-hop, compelled into it by Acuña’s 25.4 foot secondary lead and 28.3 ft/sec dash pace.

Acuña can steal towards anyone, and he steals towards everyone. He’s a catcher’s worst nightmare.