The rookie catcher quietly fueling Giants’ playoff push
Here’s the setup: In May, a middling group abruptly installs a high catching prospect right into a beginning function and, seemingly in a single day, its season is remodeled. In truth, the membership begins to seem like a contender.
That sounds awfully acquainted, however the script is somewhat completely different this time round. A 12 months in the past, we had been speaking about Adley Rutschman, harbinger of a brand new, a lot much less depressing period of Orioles baseball. In 2023, the younger backstop in query is Patrick Bailey, and it’s changing into more and more tough to disregard the similarities between the 2.
In 2022, the Orioles had been 16-24 (.400) earlier than selling Rutschman and went 67-55 (.549) after. (A 12 months later, they’ve one of the best file within the American League.) Before Bailey’s May 19 debut, the Giants had been 20-23 (.465), already eight video games out of first place within the NL West. They’ve since gone 44-34 (.564) and, if the season ended immediately, can be the National League’s second Wild Card.
The Giants’ turnaround isn’t one thing we are able to credit score completely to Bailey, however his fingerprints are throughout it. At the top of the day, he is made his pitchers higher. Here are a number of the explanation why.
As a rule, a catcher’s caught stealing share tends to be a poor measurement of their aptitude, however Bailey, who ranks fourth amongst catchers with at the least 25 makes an attempt (35.6%), is a little bit of an exception.
For one, his common pop time to second base trails solely that of perennial league chief J.T. Realmuto, and as of Wednesday, Bailey has the quickest pop time of the 2023 season to this point (1.71 seconds).
Fastest avg. pop time to 2B, 2023
1. J.T. Realmuto: 1.83 seconds
2. (tie) Patrick Bailey: 1.87 seconds
2. (tie) Garrett Stubbs: 1.87 seconds
4. Christian Bethancourt: 1.88 seconds
5. Sean Murphy: 1.89 seconds
MLB avg.: 2.00 seconds
There’s additionally his arm — normally his highest-graded software within the Minors — which averages 84.4 mph on stolen base makes an attempt, rating seventeenth out of 73 catchers with at the least 5 max-effort throws to second base.
Given each of these components, it’s not too stunning that Statcast’s Caught Stealing Above Average, which removes the potential affect of a slow-working pitcher by taking measurements on the time a pitch crosses the plate, completely loves Bailey.
Most CS Above Average, 2023
1. Gabriel Moreno: 7
2. (tie) Connor Wong: 6
2. (tie) Patrick Bailey: 6
2. (tie) Elias Díaz: 6
2. (tie) Shea Langeliers: 6
Basically, Bailey is not simply making the performs he ought to make — he is additionally getting outs he has no business changing. Opposing baserunners have but to make the adjustment, and he seems to have caught on (no pun supposed).
2) He’s MLB’s greatest at pitch framing
It would have been sufficient for Bailey to have command over the working recreation, however he is a gifted framer. In that means, he was made for the 2023 Giants, a bunch that ranks thirtieth in baseball in four-seam fastball price (12.7%, lower than half that of the Brewers, who rank twenty ninth) and throws extra sinkers than some other group in baseball (29.7%). Giants pitchers, broadly, are usually not constructed to problem hitters within the zone, and success usually relies on their potential to throw strikes with out leaving the ball out over the plate.
Fortunately for them, Bailey converts extra non-swings within the shadow zone into known as strikes than some other qualifying catcher.
Highest strike price, 2023
Among 60 qualifying catchers
1. Patrick Bailey: 53.1%
2. Austin Hedges: 52.0%
3. Cam Gallagher: 50.4%
4. (tie) Jonah Heim: 50.0%
4. (tie) Sean Murphy: 50.0%
Most catcher framing runs, 2023
1. Austin Hedges: 11
2. Patrick Bailey: 10
3. (tie) Jonah Heim: 8
3. (tie) Francisco Alvarez: 8
5. (tie) William Contreras: 7
5. (tie) Sean Murphy: 7
In measuring simply how a lot of an affect framing could make, we are able to additionally take a look at Fielding Run Value, which mixes all of Statcast’s defensive metrics to measure all fielders on the identical scale. Bailey’s +13 fielding runs — which incorporates that absurd +10 from framing — have him tied for the Major League lead with Rockies outfielder Brenton Doyle, who ranks within the 98th percentile in each dash velocity and arm power. To be clear, that is a catcher of comparable defensive worth to a pure middle fielder.
Best Fielding Run Value, 2023
1. (tie) Brenton Doyle: +13
1. (tie) Patrick Bailey: +13 (+10 framing, +4 throwing, -1 blocking)
3. (tie) Joey Wiemer: +12
3. (tie) Austin Hedges: +12
3. (tie) Sean Murphy: +12
3) He’s earned his pitchers’ belief
Since Bailey’s debut, the Giants’ workers ERA has fallen by nearly a run (4.40 via May 18, 3.63 since). While these two issues might be unrelated, in the beginning of play Wednesday, the catcher ERA hole between Bailey (3.41) and backup Blake Sabol (5.10) was the biggest between any membership’s high two catchers.
Some of that’s the product of the pitchers they’re working with — Bailey has caught twice as lots of Logan Webb’s begins, for one — however for Webb and Alex Cobb, who’ve all however held the Giants rotation collectively, posting a mixed 3.41 ERA and 4.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Bailey’s potential to steal strikes has gone hand-in-hand with their success. Webb, who has an outdoor shot at taking house the NL Cy Young Award this 12 months, leads all pitchers with a +36 run worth on shadow zone pitches (Cobb, at +19, is tied for thirty fourth of 300 qualifying pitchers) and, even so, has a destructive run worth on pitches within the coronary heart of the zone (-3).
But even we are able to admit there’s a restrict to what could be quantified. For all the pieces else, we’ve the Giants pitchers themselves.
“It’s his maturity when issues are attending to a breaking level within the recreation or seeing that sure pitches aren’t working,” the veteran Cobb mentioned of Bailey. “Memorizing the scouting report, shifting from it when things aren’t going according to that plan. He just has a feel for the game that you can’t teach. I think we’ve all said it already, but he’s just so far beyond his years in his maturity behind the plate.”
According to Cobb, no matter Bailey achieves on the Major League stage, “no person’s actually shocked anymore.” Consider this us doing our half to unfold the nice phrase.
