The next Beltré? These players could see late career surge to HOF
Adrian Beltre took an unorthodox path to Cooperstown. One of three new members of the Hall of Fame elected by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, Beltré wasn’t essentially on a Hall of Fame trajectory by the primary decade of his 21-year profession. It was the second half by which he cemented himself as one of many best third basemen of all time.
Are there any energetic gamers who might observe in Beltré’s footsteps, gamers who aren’t essentially seen as future Hall of Famers however might discover one other gear of their 30s to achieve baseball immortality?
Here’s a have a look at seven gamers who match the invoice:
Xander Bogaerts
Beltré by age-30 season: 1,681 video games; .271/.325/.454 (105 OPS+); 250 HR
Bogaerts by age-30 season: 1,419 video games; .291/.355/.456 (117 OPS+); 175 HR
Much like Beltré, Bogaerts was a touted prospect, one whom the Red Sox might see creating right into a perennial All-Star shortstop with energy. But over his first 4 full seasons, he was a league-average hitter (100 OPS+), slugging solely .410.
Bogaerts lastly had the breakout season Boston followers had been hoping for in 2018, belting 23 homers and driving in 103 runs. He was even higher in ’19, when he slugged .555 with 33 dwelling runs.
From there, Bogaerts’ energy steadily declined, although he continued to be a beneficial hitter with an .832 OPS from 2020-23. If the ability returns, he might actually make a run at placing collectively a Hall of Fame resume earlier than hanging up his spikes. It additionally wouldn’t harm if a pattern he started final season within the stolen base division — he stole a career-high 19 — continues.
Alex Bregman
Beltré by age-29 season: 1,570 video games; .271/.327/.459 (107 OPS+); 242 HR
Bregman by age-29 season: 966 video games; .274/.373/.487 (135 OPS+); 165 HR
Through his first 4 Major League seasons, it appeared as if Bregman was poised to be a celebrity for a few years to return, and even a possible Hall of Famer — he had a profession .911 OPS with 99 dwelling runs and was coming off a profession 12 months by which he smashed 41 homers with a 1.015 OPS to complete runner-up in American League MVP voting.
But since then, whereas he’s nonetheless been a productive hitter for the Astros, Bregman has an .804 OPS with 66 homers. A rediscovery of his 2019 kind would go a good distance towards getting him again on a Hall of Fame observe as he enters his 30s. Perhaps one benefit he has over Beltré is that he’s racked up much less mileage — Beltré had performed in 604 extra video games than Bregman on the similar age.
Carlos Correa
Beltré by age-28 season: 1,427 video games; .271/.327/.460 (107 OPS+); 217 HR
Correa by age-28 season: 1,023 video games; .272/.351/.468 (124 OPS+); 173 HR
There’s a definite feeling that we haven’t but seen Correa’s finest though he’s hit 20 or extra dwelling runs in six of his 9 seasons and posted an OPS of .850 or higher 4 instances. Injury has been a difficulty — he’s solely performed in 150 or extra video games as soon as in his profession on account of numerous illnesses, together with the notoriously difficult-to-shake again and foot issues.
Correa’s offensive output final season was the bottom of his profession (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 marketing campaign). He hit .230/.312/.399 with 18 homers, as soon as once more restricted by nagging again and foot accidents. The damage historical past actually clouds Correa’s outlook within the years to return, but when he can handle to remain on the sector sufficient, we might see markedly higher manufacturing from a superstar-caliber participant.
Francisco Lindor
Beltré by age-29 season: 1,570 video games; .271/.327/.459 (107 OPS+); 242 HR
Lindor by age-29 season: 1,223 video games; .274/.341/.473 (117 OPS+); 215 HR
For a three-season interval from 2017-19, Lindor was one of many recreation’s finest all-around gamers. He averaged 34 dwelling runs with an .856 OPS and gained his second profession Gold Glove Award at shortstop in that span. Already a four-time All-Star at 25 years outdated, it appeared as if the sky was the restrict for him.
But he took an enormous step again on the plate over the following two seasons, over which he hit .240/.327/.413. Over the previous two seasons, he’s recovered, posting numbers which might be nearer to what they had been from 2017-19 — from 2022-23, he mixed for 11.5 bWAR with a .797 OPS and 57 homers. If that marks the start of a constant run of excellence, Lindor might very nicely finish his profession with robust Hall of Fame credentials.
Corey Seager
Beltré by age-29 season: 1,570 video games; .271/.327/.459 (107 OPS+); 242 HR
Seager by age-29 season: 906 video games; .292/.361/.512 (134 OPS+); 170 HR
Seager is on this listing largely due to how a lot taking part in time accidents have taken from him throughout his nine-year Major League profession. He’s been fairly constant in his offensive manufacturing when within the lineup, together with final season, when he put up the very best numbers of his profession.
In 127 fewer plate appearances than he had in 2023, Seager led the AL with 42 doubles and tied a career-high with 33 homers whereas posting a 1.013 OPS and serving to the Rangers win their first World Series title. If he might try this in 119 video games, who is aware of what we might see him do over a full season now that he’s in his prime?
Health, after all, shall be a significant factor in figuring out whether or not Seager will ever have a plaque in Cooperstown.
Trea Turner
Beltré by age-30 season: 1,681 video games; .271/.325/.454 (105 OPS+); 250 HR
Turner by age-30 season: 1,004 video games; .296/.349/.483 (121 OPS+); 150 HR
Turner has persistently been thought-about the most effective shortstops within the recreation, and for good cause — every year, he brings to the desk the potential for a .300/30-homer/30-steal season.
But if we have a look at his profession so far, whereas he’s been superb, he has solely had one full season (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 marketing campaign) by which his OPS+ was above 124 — that was in 2021, when he hit .328 to win the batting title and posted a 145 OPS+ for the Nationals and Dodgers.
Some of that has to do with accidents. If he can keep wholesome within the second decade of his profession, Turner might very nicely attain the 300-homer, 400-steal milestones. Those alone might qualify him for Cooperstown within the minds of the writers.
Christian Yelich
Beltré by age-31 season: 1,835 video games; .275/.329/.462 (108 OPS+); 278 HR
Yelich by age-31 season: 1,393 video games; .286/.376/.464 (129 OPS+); 193 HR
Yelich steadily advanced into one of many recreation’s elite hitters by 2018, when he took dwelling NL MVP honors because of a 1.000 OPS with 36 dwelling runs and 22 steals for the Brewers. He was even higher the next season, hitting .329/.429/.671 with 44 homers and 30 steals.
But that’s when his manufacturing immediately fell to round league common inside two years. From 2020-22, he posted a .745 OPS and averaged 12 homers per season. He bounced again a bit in ’23, ending with an .818 OPS and 19 homers.
If Yelich continues trending upward towards one thing close to what he was, he might nonetheless make a run towards Cooperstown. But that’s an enormous “if,” and the advance will should be vital and constant to method that degree once more.
