Taking stock of the chaotic three-team AL West race

Baseball
Published 30.08.2023
Taking stock of the chaotic three-team AL West race
The case for (and in opposition to) every AL West contender

n”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”kind”:”oembed”,”width”:550,”contentType”:”wealthy”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”_The Case For:_ Julio is on an all-timer of a heater proper now, and his vibe is contagious. It took some time to get going, however in case you’re going to go streaking, there isn’t significantly better of a time to do it than heading into September. It’s not _just_ Julio, by the way in which: Teoscar Hernández has been coming alongside, and Luis Castillo is trying just like the Game 1 playoff starter they introduced him in to be.”,”kind”:”textual content”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”_The_ _Case Against:_ The schedule, first off. As enjoyable as this run has been, the wins have come in opposition to the Royals, the White Sox and the A’s. (And three in opposition to the Astros that gained’t be forgotten anytime quickly.) After this A’s sequence ends, the Mariners head east for 10 video games in opposition to the Mets, Reds and the Rays, then return house to face the Angels and the Dodgers. And after September 21, each sport they’ve is in opposition to the Rangers or Astros. Will Julio nonetheless be this scorching then? He could should be.”,”kind”:”textual content”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”_Verdict_: Julio, it appears honest to guess, is not going to have 4 hits in each sport the remainder of the season. You fear a bit about that bullpen holding up, and it may find yourself being sufficient to make it tough to carry onto that division lead. But a playoff spot? Barring a sudden scorching streak from the chasing Blue Jays, you just like the Mariners’ possibilities.”,”kind”:”textual content”},{“__typename”:”Video”,”contentDate”:”2023-08-29T02:05:10.846Z”,”preferredPlaybackScenarioURL({“preferredPlaybacks”:”mp4AvcPlayback”})”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/28/1e2ec75f-b2a5d96c-9ad14d63-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4″,”kind”:”video”,”description”:”Jose Altuve completes the cycle with a two-run house run, giving the Astros a 13-4 lead within the eighth inning”,”showAsVideoGif”:false,”length”:”00:00:29″,”slug”:”jose-altuve-homers-10-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-center-field-martin-maldonado”,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”season-2023″,”title”:”Season 2023″,”type”:”season”},{“__typename”:”GameTag”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-514888″,”title”:”Jose Altuve”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:514888″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-117″,”title”:”Houston Astros”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:117″},”type”:”team”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”hitting”,”title”:”hitting”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”highlight”,”title”:”highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”in-game-highlight”,”title”:”in-game highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”game-action-tracking”,”title”:”game action tracking”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”home-run”,”title”:”home run”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”greatest-plays”,”title”:”Greatest Plays”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”send-to-news-mlb-feed”,”title”:”Send To News MLB feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”yahoo-in-game”,”title”:”Yahoo In-Game”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”2-yahoo-mlb-ads-feed”,”title”:”2-Yahoo MLB Ads Feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”international-feed”,”title”:”International Partner feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”eclat-feed”,”title”:”Eclat feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”fan-duel”,”title”:”Fan Duel”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”apple-news”,”title”:”Apple News”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”samsung-vod”,”title”:”Samsung VOD”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”yahoo-in-game-national”,”title”:”Yahoo In-Game National”,”type”:”taxonomy”}],”thumbnail”:{“__typename”:”Thumbnail”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/picture/add/{formatInstructions}/mlb/ajbdwpek5oeolzl9n0hd”},”title”:”Jose Altuve homers for cycle (10)”,”relativeSiteUrl”:”/video/jose-altuve-homers-10-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-center-field-martin-maldonado”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”**Astros**nn_Record:_ 76-58nn_Current FanGraphs Odds of Winning Division__:_ 44.5 percentnn_How It’s Going Lately:_ The Astros haven’t looked like their dominant World Series-winning team of last year much this year, but that isn’t to say they’ve ever looked bad. They have just sort of lurked all year, first behind the Rangers and now the Mariners.nnThey’ve been good in August, just like they were good in July, but never enough to pull away from the pack. They’ve never faltered the way the Rangers have recently, though. One thing worth keeping in mind: They’re tied with the Mariners and Rangers in the standings but one game behind in the loss column. They have two fewer games to play than Seattle and Texas the rest of the way.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Video”,”contentDate”:”2023-08-29T23:43:00.77Z”,”preferredPlaybackScenarioURL({“preferredPlaybacks”:”mp4AvcPlayback”})”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/29/4def0be9-c4d038e6-3ba07d4b-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4″,”type”:”video”,”description”:”Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez hammer back-to-back home runs to give the Astros an early 2-0 lead in the top of the 1st inning”,”displayAsVideoGif”:false,”duration”:”00:00:43″,”slug”:”astros-go-back-to-back-in-the-1st”,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”GameTag”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-117″,”title”:”Houston Astros”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:117″},”type”:”team”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-608324″,”title”:”Alex Bregman”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:608324″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-670541″,”title”:”Yordan Alvarez”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:670541″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”hitting”,”title”:”hitting”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”highlight”,”title”:”highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”in-game-highlight”,”title”:”in-game highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”game-action-tracking”,”title”:”game action tracking”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”highlight-reel-offense”,”title”:”highlight reel offense”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”home-run”,”title”:”home run”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”first-inning”,”title”:”first inning”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”season-2023″,”title”:”Season 2023″,”type”:”season”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”international-feed”,”title”:”International Partner feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”fan-duel”,”title”:”Fan Duel”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”eclat-feed”,”title”:”Eclat feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”apple-news”,”title”:”Apple News”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”alexa”,”title”:”alexa”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”samsung-vod”,”title”:”Samsung VOD”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”imagen-feed”,”title”:”Imagen feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”}],”thumbnail”:{“__typename”:”Thumbnail”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/bawe8wlvxf7xof7c6omr”},”title”:”Astros go back-to-back in the 1st”,”relativeSiteUrl”:”/video/astros-go-back-to-back-in-the-1st”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”_The Case For:_ The Astros have been here before and closed things out just fine: They have won five of the last six division titles, after all. (The only one they didn’t win was the truncated 2020 season, won by the A’s, if you can believe that.) They’re reasonably healthy right now, they have a terrific top of their rotation and they still have Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez in their lineup. We’ve seen it before. We may well see it again.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”_The Case Against:_ Not to rely too much on vibes here, but why _haven’t_ the Astros ever felt quite right this year? The return of Justin Verlander hasn’t changed the fundamental sense that this year’s team isn’t on the same tier as last year’s. They’ve had the chance to put the Mariners and the Rangers in their rearview mirror, and they haven’t done it. Isn’t it about time for them to?nn_Verdict:_ The Mariners and Rangers are wonderful stories, but the Astros, even with all their issues, look like the most complete team in this division. Count on their talent and experience to win out in the end.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Video”,”contentDate”:”2023-08-24T23:46:32.442Z”,”preferredPlaybackScenarioURL({“preferredPlaybacks”:”mp4AvcPlayback”})”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/24/1a20a576-f21feb82-ecae57f9-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4″,”type”:”video”,”description”:”Corey Seager hammers a ball to the right-field corner for a solo home run, giving the Rangers a 2-1 lead in the top of the 3rd inning”,”displayAsVideoGif”:false,”duration”:”00:00:26″,”slug”:”corey-seager-homers-24-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-field”,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”season-2023″,”title”:”Season 2023″,”type”:”season”},{“__typename”:”GameTag”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-608369″,”title”:”Corey Seager”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:608369″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-140″,”title”:”Texas Rangers”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:140″},”type”:”team”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”hitting”,”title”:”hitting”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”highlight”,”title”:”highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”in-game-highlight”,”title”:”in-game highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”game-action-tracking”,”title”:”game action tracking”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”home-run”,”title”:”home run”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”send-to-news-mlb-feed”,”title”:”Send To News MLB feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”2-yahoo-mlb-ads-feed”,”title”:”2-Yahoo MLB Ads Feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”yahoo-in-game”,”title”:”Yahoo In-Game”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”greatest-plays”,”title”:”Greatest Plays”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”fan-duel”,”title”:”Fan Duel”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”international-feed”,”title”:”International Partner feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”eclat-feed”,”title”:”Eclat feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”imagen-feed”,”title”:”Imagen feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”}],”thumbnail”:{“__typename”:”Thumbnail”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/cnrlk6zdvqv3x9yp6r0p”},”title”:”Corey Seager’s solo homer (24)”,”relativeSiteUrl”:”/video/corey-seager-homers-24-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-field”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”**Rangers**nn_Record:_ 75-57nn_Current FanGraphs Odds of Winning Division__:_ 20.3 percentnn_How It’s Going Lately:_ Not nice, Bob! 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3:25 PM UTC

The Wild Card races are setting as much as be thrilling sprints to the end in each the American League and the National League, which is an efficient factor, as a result of, properly, division-wise, there are fewer shut races than you’d like. The Twins have pulled away from the Guardians within the AL Central, and the Brewers are within the strategy of doing the identical from the Cubs and Reds within the NL Central.

The Braves have basically had the NL East within the bag since, uh, May, and the Dodgers have been so scorching these days they’ve a fair larger lead of their division at present than the Braves do. The AL East goes to have a decent battle between the Orioles and the Rays, certain, although everyone knows each these groups are making the playoffs anyway; it’s thrilling, and that first-round bye will likely be necessary, however they’re each transferring on both approach.

The AL West, although: That’s the good things proper there. First off, not like each different division race, there are three groups within the combine: The scorching white-hot Mariners, the defending champion Astros, and the reeling however nonetheless well-positioned Rangers.

They’re all absurdly bunched collectively, with the Mariners, Astros and Rangers all nearly tied, and, much more thrilling, none of these groups are assured of a Wild Card spot, not with the Blue Jays (and to a lesser extent the Red Sox) lurking behind them. The distinction between first place and third place within the AL West might be the distinction between a first-round bye … and never making the playoffs in any respect.

That’s what you need from a playoff chase. So, as we head into Labor Day weekend and the house stretch of the common season, let’s check out the three main contenders within the AL West, and make the case for them being the group that may in the end come out on prime .. and the case in opposition to.

How It’s Going Lately: Splendid! The Mariners are the most popular group in baseball, having simply gained seven in a row and 12 of their final 14. They’re doing it in a wide range of methods. Their patchwork bullpen has turned out to be surprisingly stout post-Paul Sewald commerce. The rotation is holding up regardless of a relentless cavalcade of accidents to pitchers each younger and outdated.

But the primary motive they’re doing it, let’s face it, is that Julio Rodríguez is taking part in out of his ever-loving thoughts. The man is hitting .429 in August and slugging .724; he seems just like the all-world, Seattle-savior celebrity all of us dreamed he was going to be. He has carried this group to the highest of the division … and, other than some left foot soreness that made him a late scratch from the lineup Tuesday, he doesn’t appear to be he’s slowing down anytime quickly.

The Case For: Julio is on an all-timer of a heater proper now, and his vibe is contagious. It took some time to get going, however in case you’re going to go streaking, there isn’t significantly better of a time to do it than heading into September. It’s not simply Julio, by the way in which: Teoscar Hernández has been coming alongside, and Luis Castillo is trying just like the Game 1 playoff starter they introduced him in to be.

The Case Against: The schedule, first off. As enjoyable as this run has been, the wins have come in opposition to the Royals, the White Sox and the A’s. (And three in opposition to the Astros that gained’t be forgotten anytime quickly.) After this A’s sequence ends, the Mariners head east for 10 video games in opposition to the Mets, Reds and the Rays, then return house to face the Angels and the Dodgers. And after September 21, each sport they’ve is in opposition to the Rangers or Astros. Will Julio nonetheless be this scorching then? He could should be.

Verdict: Julio, it appears honest to guess, is not going to have 4 hits in each sport the remainder of the season. You fear a bit about that bullpen holding up, and it may find yourself being sufficient to make it tough to carry onto that division lead. But a playoff spot? Barring a sudden scorching streak from the chasing Blue Jays, you just like the Mariners’ possibilities.

How It’s Going Lately: The Astros haven’t appeared like their dominant World Series-winning group of final yr a lot this yr, however that isn’t to say they’ve ever appeared unhealthy. They have simply type of lurked all yr, first behind the Rangers and now the Mariners.

They’ve been good in August, identical to they have been good in July, however by no means sufficient to tug away from the pack. They’ve by no means faltered the way in which the Rangers have just lately, although. One factor value retaining in thoughts: They’re tied with the Mariners and Rangers within the standings however one sport behind within the loss column. They have two fewer video games to play than Seattle and Texas the remainder of the way in which.

The Case For: The Astros have been right here earlier than and closed issues out simply advantageous: They have gained 5 of the final six division titles, in spite of everything. (The just one they didn’t win was the truncated 2020 season, gained by the A’s, in case you can consider that.) They’re fairly wholesome proper now, they’ve a terrific prime of their rotation and so they nonetheless have Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez of their lineup. We’ve seen it earlier than. We could properly see it once more.

The Case Against: Not to rely an excessive amount of on vibes right here, however why haven’t the Astros ever felt fairly proper this yr? The return of Justin Verlander hasn’t modified the elemental sense that this yr’s group isn’t on the identical tier as final yr’s. They’ve had the prospect to place the Mariners and the Rangers of their rearview mirror, and so they haven’t carried out it. Isn’t it about time for them to?

Verdict: The Mariners and Rangers are fantastic tales, however the Astros, even with all their points, appear to be probably the most full group on this division. Count on their expertise and expertise to win out in the long run.

How It’s Going Lately: Not nice, Bob! After a scorching begin to August, profitable their first eight and constructing off an energetic Trade Deadline, the Rangers have face-planted since August 16, dropping 9 of 12 and falling from 3 1/2 as much as tied for first. A comeback win in opposition to the Mets on Monday night time, their first win of the yr when trailing after eight innings, was desperately wanted: The Rangers and their followers have been beginning to fear this could be careening uncontrolled.

The Case For: Everything that has made the Rangers one of many shock tales in baseball this yr remains to be right here: A deep rotation (buoyed significantly on the deadline), Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, a resourceful bullpen, an skilled supervisor. One dropping skid isn’t going to scare these guys, significantly with the schedule getting a bit simpler.

The Case Against: Five of these latest losses have been by one or two runs, precisely the type of video games the Rangers can’t afford to lose. If the Jays get scorching, it’s the Rangers who’re most weak, significantly with these 4 video games in Toronto.

Verdict: It’s tough to overstate how large these 4 video games in Seattle will likely be to shut the season, each for this division and the Wild Card race. As lengthy because the Rangers can keep away from any extra accidents, right here’s betting they will maintain off the Jays and get all three of those AL West groups into the postseason.