Spring training numbers that should matter to the Blue Jays
Pitchers and catchers reported for the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday and spring coaching video games are simply over per week away.
This time of yr generates loads of pleasure for baseball followers, and rightly so. It can be a time for unbridled optimism barring surprising damage setbacks — just like the scare Texas Rangers followers are coping with concerning new addition Jacob deGrom.
While there’s nothing unsuitable with positivity, it’s additionally a tough time to get a learn on how groups are wanting.
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That will change when spring coaching video games start subsequent week. Although outcomes from these contests will be onerous to parse as a consequence of unpredictable participant utilization, there’s usually nonetheless one thing to be taught from them.
Here are a couple of particulars to maintain your eye on when the Blue Jays’ Grapefruit League season will get underway:
Danny Jansen’s max exit velocity
Every yr one or two gamers make headlines for displaying as much as camp in one of the best form of their life. In 2023 the Blue Jay who matches the invoice is Jansen, who has turned heads over the previous couple of days.
The catcher is already coming off a formidable season that noticed him slug .512 and hit 15 residence runs in simply 72 video games. Despite that manufacturing, he nonetheless wasn’t a Statcast darling as his max exit velocity was within the 53rd percentile and his common exit velo ranked seventh on the Blue Jays.
Last season, Santiago Espinal made waves by bulking up and he bumped up his max exit velocity by 3.3 mph from 2021. That didn’t translate to a lot energy as a result of he was working from such a low baseline, but it surely was a notable distinction.
An analogous bounce from Jansen can be way more important because the catcher already does a superb job of pulling the ball within the air.
In the small-sample-size world of spring coaching Jansen might not obtain sufficient at-bats to sq. a ball as much as one of the best of his means. So, if he doesn’t smash any earlier max exit velocity data that doesn’t imply it received’t occur.
But if he is ready to show a brand new degree of uncooked energy it could possibly be step one to bumping up an already-impressive offensive ceiling.
Yusei Kikuchi’s zone proportion (significantly on his fastball)
Normally when a pitcher is permitting too many walks the problem is extra sophisticated than an incapacity to fill the strike zone.
In Kikuchi’s case final season, although, his issues have been so elementary that they got here all the way down to primary management extra so than command.
The southpaw had historically thrown pitches within the strike zone at a price effectively above league common, however that pattern got here to an abrupt finish in 2022.
His zone price on his fastball dropped by 8.2 per cent from 2021. That allowed opponents to put off of it extra on their technique to walks — or at-bats the place they might zero in on his slider, a pitch hitters slugged .602 off final season.
Throwing extra strikes isn’t the be-all and end-all for Kikuchi’s success, however he received’t be a practical starter in 2023 if his management doesn’t enhance from what we noticed final season.
Erik Swanson’s velocity
Swanson is coming off a profession season when his velocity dropped to its lowest level since he turned a full-time reliever.
That truth alone means that velocity isn’t on the coronary heart of his success. He locates his heater extraordinarily effectively on the high of the zone and above. He additionally has a splitter that helps it play up and a slider that ties right-handed hitters in knots.
At the identical time, while you commerce for a high-leverage reliever who throws fastballs greater than 50 per cent of the time this isn’t the best velocity pattern:
We have stable proof of idea that Swanson can thrive with out elite warmth, however even a stabilization of his 2022 ranges can be a optimistic signal.
If he have been capable of tick again up in direction of his 2020 peak, that will be even higher for the Blue Jays.
Daulton Varsho’s stroll price
As the largest new addition to the Blue Jays, loads of eyes might be on Varsho throughout spring coaching.
The versatile defensive ace has apparent strengths like his means to learn fly balls and produce energy from the left aspect of the plate. He additionally enters his fourth MLB season with a profession OBP of .306.
That’s not a disastrous quantity contemplating his different skills, however Varsho’s upside is restricted to a point until he can get on base a little bit bit extra.
Walks are an apparent avenue to creating that occur, particularly because the outfielder strikes out at an above-average clip, limiting his uncooked variety of balls in play.
In Varsho’s first two MLB seasons he demonstrated a capability to attract walks at a formidable price — albeit in restricted at-bats — however that fell off final season.
Any bounce again on this space would put considerably much less strain on his means to hit for energy — and permit the Blue Jays to be extra open-minded about slotting him additional up the lineup.
Varsho’s not about to turn out to be Joey Votto, however a BB% nearing double digits would do him a world of fine.
Walk price can be a statistic that tends to be significant in comparatively small samples, so any pattern recognized in spring coaching motion has a stable likelihood to hold over into the season.
Jose Berrios’ strikeout price
Berríos had a 2022 to neglect, and he might be carefully monitored for indicators of a turnaround in the course of the spring.
While zeroing in on his strikeout could appear overly simplistic, there’s no denying the function the connection between his means to rack up Okay’s and his success.
In the small pattern of Grapefruit League ball his swinging strike price would usually be of extra curiosity than his strikeout price — however Berríos particularly struggled to complete off hitters.
His swinging strike price in 2022 (9.3 per cent) was similar to what he produced in a superb 2021 (9.9 per cent) and he reached two-strike counts at a fairly comparable clip (29.1 per cent vs. 30.7 per cent).
What he did when he received to 2 strikes was the distinction.
In 2021 Berríos accomplished strikeouts extra usually than he allowed balls in play whereas in 2022 his BIP price was 30.3 % increased than his putaway proportion.
That’s an enormous distinction, and if Berríos is ending off at-bats in Grapefruit League motion that might be a optimistic signal for the Blue Jays.
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