Roundtable: What makes Gunnar the No. 1 prospect?
Pipeline’s prospect consultants sat down with MLB.com editor Alyson Footer to debate Henderson, what made him stand out and the instances for 2 different candidates for the highest spot.
Alyson Footer, editor/moderator: Henderson landed at No. 1 this yr, up one spot from final yr’s remaining rating on the finish of the 2022 season. What separated him? Since all three have really reached the massive leagues already, this group is a little bit distinctive in that respect, right?
Jonathan Mayo, senior author: I believe what Henderson was capable of do in 2022 was nothing in need of wonderful. And it is not simply the numbers he put up; it is the changes he made. He had an excellent 2021 season, however wanted to refine his method and reduce down on the swing-and-miss. And that is precisely what he did. His refined method — he drew a ton extra walks — allowed him to make extra contact and get to his energy extra. Combine that along with his pace and his protection, which have been on show at three ranges together with the massive leagues, he was the clear alternative for No. 1 for me.
Jim Callis, senior author: For me, separating Henderson from Carroll and Álvarez got here down to 2 issues. One, I believe he clearly has the perfect mixture of hitting capability and energy amongst these three (and he’ll in all probability draw probably the most walks as nicely). Two, positional worth from enjoying on the grime and being a strong defender vs. Álvarez being an iffy catcher and Carroll being an outfielder (albeit an excellent one).
Sam Dykstra, reporter: We already knew Henderson may hit on the higher ranges after his performances at Double-A and Triple-A, the place he was younger at each ranges, however when he appeared like an analogous participant within the Majors (takes his walks, hits the ball with authority to all fields, performs a high quality infield), his inventory in some way nonetheless went up. We noticed what occurred with Julio Rodríguez , Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. final yr within the Majors. They wanted an adjustment interval to the highest stage. Henderson did a greater job of hitting the bottom working than even that crew did.
Mayo: As for the purpose about Henderson, Carroll and Álvarez all having massive league time, I believe that is proper. We usually have prospects who’ve made their debuts, however I do not recall having a high three who’ve already gotten a style.
Footer: Álvarez was your No. 1 final yr, and he dropped two spots. Why? There are questions on how good he’ll be defensively long-term. Did that consider?
Callis: I do not assume Álvarez “dropped” a lot as we like the opposite guys a little bit extra. Álvarez has large energy, greater than anybody within the Top 100, however Henderson and Carroll aren’t any slouches in that division and are higher hitters and defenders.
Mayo: It did for me, for positive. I believe he will hit for loads of energy and may need extra pop than anybody on this checklist, or within the Minors for that matter. If he can catch in any respect (stealing from one thing Sam stated offline), he is an All-Star. But if he is a primary baseman or DH, then it is not fairly as thrilling a prospect package deal. Don’t get me flawed — the bat goes to play I believe, and that is why he solely is No. 3. But if he isn’t catching, then he HAS to hit to have that type of worth.
But I do agree with Jim that we simply favored Henderson and Carroll a bit extra, moderately than us being “down” on Álvarez.
Dykstra: Defense is the largest disadvantage on Álvarez ‘s profile. He hits the ball laborious. He’s the one prospect in our Top 100 with 70 energy on the 20-80 scale as a result of we all know it performs in video games. But the Mets have allowed his bat to do the climbing, whereas his glovework nonetheless has some methods to go. Ankle surgical procedure on the finish of the yr provides one other query mark, albeit a small one.
That stated, he received very restricted MLB enjoying time. Henderson and Carroll received a bigger pattern. Their relative success in The Show pushed them previous him, so we’ve fewer questions on how they will deal with the Majors as a result of we have seen it for longer. That’s to their credit score, and we wished that mirrored within the up to date high three.
Footer: Do you assume Henderson finally ends up as a 3rd baseman or shortstop long-term? From the restricted analysis I’ve carried out, there would not appear to be a consensus guess on this one.
Mayo: I believe that is determined by what the Orioles have personnel-wise. I’ve zero questions on his capability to play shortstop within the massive leagues. But there’s an opportunity there will likely be somebody at shortstop, which might push Henderson to 3rd. Long-term from a prospect standpoint, Joey Ortiz (new on our Top 100) is a superior defender, so having him at brief and Henderson at third would make for a really, excellent left aspect of the O’s infield.
Dykstra: If Henderson performed in a bubble, I’d say he may deal with it. Definitely has the arm for it, and he is lots athletic to deal with an up-the-middle place. In actuality? I guess the O’s hold him at third. Jorge Mateo is simply too good defensively within the brief time period. Ortiz is sort of MLB-ready himself and would slide simply into that place. Keep Henderson the place you understand he can stick persistently and permit him to flourish on the scorching nook as a substitute of enjoying along with his growth by regularly transferring round if higher shortstop defenders arrive.
Callis: I’ll say third base, however like Jonathan mentions, not due to any perceived shortcomings by Henderson. Ortiz is an excellent defender at shortstop and I believe 2022 No. 1 total choose Jackson Holliday will likely be a little bit higher at brief than Henderson in the long term. In the brief time period, Mateo has an excellent 2022 season there for Baltimore.
Mayo: Henderson additionally has the prospect to be an above-average or higher defender at third, I believe.
Dykstra: I believe it is a main level in Henderson’s favor that we are able to have this dialog and nonetheless consider he is the No. 1 prospect within the sport. Normally if a man is even a debate to maneuver off an up-the-middle place, he goes out of the No. 1 total dialogue. But Henderson’s hit, energy, run and arm instruments are all so good that he’ll be an All-Star-level expertise irrespective of the place he finally ends up.
Footer: Last yr, I requested who subsequent yr’s No. 1 is perhaps. There was apparent help for Rodríguez, and we all know how 2022 turned out for him. Anthony Volpe received some help as nicely. He got here in at No. 5 this yr. Why the drop? Or was it probably not a drop as a lot as just a few new names coming into the fray?
Mayo: I believe the very last thing greater than something. I’ll let Jim wax eloquent about Volpe extra, however his “down year” in 2022 was nonetheless insane — 20-50!
Callis: The latter. Volpe received off to a gradual begin, then recovered and have become the primary Minor Leaguer with a 20-homer, 50-steal season since Andruw Jones in 1995. I believe Volpe is similar man as final yr, simply received handed by some very proficient guys.
If you take a look at it shortstop vs. shortstop, Henderson has comparable hitting capability and extra energy, quickness, arm energy and defensive ceiling at brief, in order that’s a simple name.
Dykstra: Combination of issues. Volpe received off to a gradual begin at Double-A. That’s effective. It occurs. But he confirmed a pleasant capability to make changes to upper-level pitching, so he holds serve in that approach. Jim and Jonathan have talked about his 20-50 numbers, and that is unbelievable in its personal proper. It was simply that small bump within the street that guys like Henderson, Carroll, Álvarez and Jordan Walker (No. 4 total) did not have that had him on the surface trying in. The different 4 simply had a lot optimistic momentum.
Footer: Is Carroll in some way underappreciated despite the fact that he is No. 2? Are we not giving him sufficient consideration or due reward?
Mayo: I believe in some methods he’s, which appears a little bit loopy given he is No. 2 and the way good he was in 2022. But I believe the actual fact he missed the 2021 season with damage left him a little bit bit “out of sight, out of mind.”
Callis: I would not say that. He’s within the dialogue for the highest prospect in baseball and the main candidate to be NL Rookie of the Year. He will get loads of consideration and reward. It’s not like we or anybody else is saying that is Gunnar Vs. The Rest Of The World.
Mayo: Carroll got here on SO quick in 2022 and, like Henderson, confirmed he can carry out within the massive leagues. Which helped us really feel tremendous comfy rating him this excessive. That and the actual fact the D-backs are prepared at hand him the keys to middle discipline.
Dykstra: I really feel like he is positioned himself squarely on most radars. Bringing his 80-grade pace and spectacular capability to search out the barrel to the Majors final yr ought to have gotten many of us on board. He was the runaway choose for NL Rookie of the Year in our current Executive Prospect Poll. His arrival is an enormous cause why I believe some consider the D-backs might be a darkish horse within the NL West this season and doubtless why they felt comfy buying and selling Daulton Varsho for Gabriel Moreno this winter.
Footer: Did anybody else get high three consideration? How laborious was it to select these three?
Mayo: For me, there is a separation between this high three and the remainder of the checklist. There is not THAT a lot area between Álvarez and Walker, however I assumed Henderson, Carroll and Álvarez have been the clear high three after which it was a query of who was on the high of the remainder of the checklist.
Callis: It was a reasonably clear-cut high three. Like Jonathan stated, they weren’t mild years forward of everybody else, however Henderson, Carroll and Álvarez have been the plain guys for the highest of the Top 100.
Dykstra: Walker is knocking on that door. Easy to say since he is No. 4, however attending to see him play some outfield within the Arizona Fall League made us really feel a little bit extra comfy that he can deal with the transfer from third base. The solely factor he lacks that the others have is Triple-A/MLB expertise. His ceiling is near the opposite three, due to his plus-plus uncooked energy and skill to hit for a median round .300 in all places he is been. For now, we simply must see the way it interprets towards extra upper-level pitching first.
Footer: Were any pitchers thought-about for high three?
Mayo: My high three have been the clear high three, so no. But our high two pitchers — Andrew Painter (No. 6 total) and Grayson Rodriguez (No. 7) — may have very simply been No. 4 for me.
Both of them may graduate this yr, but when Painter would not, and he does within the Minors what he did final yr, he may simply be within the high three dialog.
Callis: Painter, Rodriguez and Eury Pérez (No. 13 total) are within the subsequent tier of prospects, however I did not have any of them cracking the highest three.
Dykstra: Pitching is turning into more and more tough to rank that prime, I believe. Evolving roles and utilization put a cap on how a lot affect a pitcher can have, even when he’s an everyday starter. So if we’re speaking high three total prospects, it is a a lot greater bar a pitcher has to clear in comparison with on a regular basis abilities like those we’ve. Painter, Rodriguez and Pérez all have nice potential, however they did not fairly clear that bar this time round.
Footer: Last query earlier than we wrap: Who will likely be No. 1 a yr from now?
Callis: There are a variety of attention-grabbing candidates, however I’m going to stay with Orioles infielders and say Holliday (No. 12 total) will high our 2024 checklist. He received higher in each side of the sport final yr, impressively managed the strike zone in his professional debut, and I believe he will have an enormous yr in 2024. I believe he might be a non-switch-hitting model of Chipper Jones.
Mayo: I could have answered this otherwise elsewhere, however I’m going to foretell that Elly De La Cruz (No. 10 total) would not graduate this yr in Cincinnati. And if he is nonetheless a prospect, his mixture of energy, pace and total athleticism that performs on each side of the ball may be very, very laborious to match. He had an enormous 2022 season and with a little bit method refinement, he’ll put up even higher numbers in 2023. I may see him being like Henderson and Carroll, having already gotten a style of massive league life however nonetheless qualifying, and deserving, to be No. 1.
Dykstra: I’ll cheat a little bit and say our top-ranked prospect with a 2024 ETA — Jackson Chourio (No. 8 total). The Brewers’ outfield prospect raced by means of three ranges final yr, displaying plus energy and near-elite pace in middle discipline that helped him win a Minor League Gold Glove. He has some points to work by means of along with his swing and skill to make contact, so which will want some work as he returns to Double-A. The Brewers’ crowded outfield, together with different prospects like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Joey Wiemer, may hold Chourio within the Minors for a bit longer, too. Consider this: He’ll nonetheless solely be 19 once we re-rank our Top 100 this time subsequent yr. He has ample instruments and time on his aspect.
