Rolen could open HOF door to more third basemen. And soon

Scott Rolen is the highest returning vote-getter on this yr’s Hall of Fame poll, and there are many, many legitimate causes to assist his candidacy, greater than we are able to record right here. But past something particular to Rolen and his personal particular person case, we now have a vested curiosity on this due to one easy motive:

Rolen is a 3rd baseman, and the Hall of Fame doesn’t induct third basemen.

That’s it. That’s your entire premise right here. For no matter motive, third basemen have been traditionally underrepresented within the Hall of Fame, in comparison with the seven different non-pitcher spots.

Helpfully, the Baseball Hall of Fame web site maintains a web page that breaks down the collected legends by place, and you’ll see it proper there: Just 17 third basemen, the fewest of any non-DH place group. It’s the one place with out not less than 19 members inducted, and in the event you put aside catchers, who’re their very own animal solely, it’s the one group with out not less than 20 members.

But even that doesn’t actually inform the total story, does it? Because while you take a look at the record of 17 names listed as third basemen by the Hall of Fame, you’ll discover some issues.

Sure, you will see Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt, all-time greats who spent most of their time on the sizzling nook. But there’s additionally Freddie Lindstrom, who moved off the place after his age-24 season. There’s Paul Molitor, who began greater than 100 video games on the place solely 5 instances, regardless of 21 seasons within the Majors. They might have performed extra third base than another place, however have been they actually third basemen?

Maybe a greater method to take a look at it, provided that gamers like Molitor moved round to totally different spots earlier than spending years as a chosen hitter, is to not fear about anybody’s major listed place. Let’s simply take the entire Hall of Famers who ever lived, and see what number of video games they performed at every place. (For these functions, solely AL/NL time from Negro League inductees is accounted for, given the continuing work to enhance Negro League statistical accounting.)

Again, in the event you look previous catcher, a novel place with its personal calls for, third base is brief by a lot, at slightly below 29,000 video games performed. It’s not even three-quarters of the way in which to first base, which is at practically 40,000 video games performed – partly as a result of first base is considered as a better place, one which gamers can transfer to as they age. But third base, comparatively, is underrepresented.

Not satisfied but? Let’s return to the 17 listed third basemen on the Hall of Fame web site, and take a look at how they break down:

Only Chipper Jones (born 1972) was born within the final six many years. Only Pie Traynor, who was born in 1898, was elected by way of the common BBWAA poll (in 1948) within the first 4 many years of the Hall’s existence, till Eddie Mathews joined him in 1978.

So not solely are comparatively few third basemen within the Hall of Fame, most of the ones who’re have been by no means seen by anybody nonetheless alive in the present day, having been born properly over 100 years in the past – or have been elected by committees lengthy after their deaths. This has lengthy been a identified concern, after all. Here’s the New York Times in 2018; right here’s The Hardball Times in 2013; right here’s Bill James himself method again in 1995 calling the place “dramatically underrepresented.”

Why? There are actually examples of nice hitters who have been moved off third to much less demanding positions as they aged – Molitor, Jim Thome, Tony Pérez, and Harmon Killebrew amongst them – and that’s possible a part of the issue, that early-career third basemen didn’t stay late-career third basemen. (Which is a feather in Rolen’s cap: Every single one in every of his 2,023 profession defensive appearances got here at third.) Maybe the voters of many years in the past didn’t fairly respect that third basemen needed to hit higher than center infielders and subject higher than first basemen.

But perhaps it’s additionally that the place we all know in the present day – the recent nook is the place stars dwell – is in such a golden age that it makes you overlook that this wasn’t all the time the case.

For instance, FanGraphs writer and Hall of Fame voter Jay Jaffe has lengthy printed his JAWS metric, which is a model of WAR particularly centered on Hall of Fame comparability. Eleven of the 13 finest third basemen by this metric are actually Hall of Famers; one shouldn’t be eligible but however must be a slam dunk when he’s on the poll in 2024 (Adrián Beltré); the ultimate one is Rolen. By this measure, the most effective non-HOF third basemen are Graig Nettles, Ken Boyer, and Buddy Bell — good gamers all, but none who look like apparent snubs. Rolen apart, it is troublesome to argue that there are lots of deserving third basemen who’ve been neglected.

To additional illustrate this, we took the eight non-pitcher defensive positions, seemed up Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs over the many years, and ranked them. For many, a few years, third base was a middle-of-the-pack place, nearly by no means deviating from “the middle.” It wasn’t nice. It wasn’t poor. It was simply there.

Third base WAR rankings by way of 2009
1920-69: fifth of 8
1970-79: third of 8
1980-89: 4th of 8
1990-99: fifth of 8
2000-09: 4th of 8

Consistent, proper? Now look what’s occurred since, cut up each into the last decade of the 2010s and during the last six seasons. Third base is dominant.

Third base WAR rankings since 2010
2010-present: 2nd of 8
2016-present: 1st of 8

If it looks like third base is filled with superstars, then that’s completely true. Five of the highest six WAR seasons for the place have come since 2015, and whereas that’s a little bit about the truth that there are extra gamers and groups now than there have been traditionally, it’s principally concerning the caliber of participant who mans the spot now.

That 2016 date is handy, as a result of in May of that yr, Jayson Stark (then of ESPN) presciently argued that the golden age of third basemen was then, and little has modified. (“It used to be a bunch of big hairy men who were the power hitters in our game,” then-Baltimore supervisor Buck Showalter informed Stark. “Now I’ve never seen so many guys with power who are also great defenders.”)

When we not too long ago seemed on the present gamers who may find yourself within the Hall of Fame, we discovered three third basemen who look like they’ll have extraordinarily good circumstances (Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, and José Ramírez) and a trio of others (Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, Evan Longoria) who will possible not less than be within the dialog. If even 4 get in, and we assume that Rolen and Beltré precede them, then the variety of Hall of Fame third basemen can have swelled by 35% in comparison with in the present day.

All of which comes again to Rolen, an eight-time Gold Glove winner who had an eight-year run from 1997-2004 the place he had posted the third-most WAR within the Majors – or, in the event you desire, essentially the most WAR within the Majors amongst gamers who don’t have PED connection points. Rolen is trending in the direction of Cooperstown immortality as a result of he had an awesome profession, and since leaving him out can be a mistake. But his induction would additionally go a great distance in the direction of correcting one other transgression: the shortage of third basemen within the Hall.