Outfield trade targets Blue Jays could consider in wake of Hernandez departure
When the Toronto Blue Jays traded Teoscar Hernández to Seattle, it was an announcement of intent about remaking an outfield that produced offensively however precipitated match points for the remainder of the group.
The trio of Hernández, George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. made up a strong outfield that almost all groups can be proud of. They had been additionally solely right-handed hitters, didn’t produce sturdy defensive metrics, and compelled Springer to set a career-high in centre-field innings in his age-32 season.
What the Blue Jays find yourself with in 2023 is not any assure to be higher, however by opening a spot the group has the chance to create a more practical defensive alignment, restrict or get rid of Springer’s centre-field reps, and presumably create extra left/proper lineup steadiness.
One avenue for making that occur is free company the place the group has been linked to each gamers who will demand large contracts like Brandon Nimmo and reclamation tasks like Cody Bellinger. The commerce market can also be bursting with potentialities as established stars and up-and-comers each prone to be out there.
Here are a couple of outfielders the Blue Jays may purchase by way of commerce this offseason:
The Big Swing
Bryan Reynolds
Age: 27
Bats: Switch
2022 stats: .262/.345/.461 line in 614 plate appearances, with 27 HR and seven SB (2.9 fWAR)
2023 wage or MLBTR projected arbitration wage: $6.75 million
Years of group management: 3
Why he may match: Reynolds is sort of merely the perfect centre fielder out there on the commerce market.
Over the previous two seasons his fWAR (9.0) ranks twenty fourth amongst all place gamers, sandwiched between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper.
He’s the kind of participant who hardly ever appears like a star, however there are so few holes in his recreation that he usually performs like one. His energy, persistence, contact means, pace, and throwing arm are all between common and elite.
Reynolds might by no means replicate his 6.1 fWAR 2021 season, however he tasks as roughly a four-win participant for the foreseeable future as he’s smack dab within the coronary heart of his prime.
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There are two important questions with Reynolds. The first is his acquisition value. FanGraphs rated him because the thirty fourth on their commerce worth rankings final season, and three seasons of a participant of his calibre gained’t come low cost.
Another problem is his defence. Despite strong Sprint Speed and arm energy numbers Reynolds’ defensive metrics have been in all places. In 2022 his OAA was within the sixth percentile, in 2021 it was 98th.
It’s simple to say the reality lies someplace in between, however the metrics haven’t tended to love his work in centre. His profession DRS there’s -16 is 2514 innings, whereas his UZR stands at -3.5.
The total bundle is spectacular even in case you are pessimistic in regards to the 27-year-old’s defence, however he in all probability isn’t the participant to rework Toronto’s outfield defence right into a high unit for years to come back.
The Short-term Fix
Ian Happ
Age: 28
Bats: Switch
2022 stats: .271/.342/.440 line in 641 plate appearances, with 17 HR and 9 SB (3.5 fWAR)
2023 wage or MLBTR projected arbitration wage: $10.6 million
Years of group management: 1
Why he may match: Happ has been linked to the Blue Jays a number of instances over the previous few years with good purpose. He wields a dependable bat, he performs across the outfield and the Chicago Cubs aggressive window appears to have handed them by.
Of all of the choices on this checklist, Happ has the very best wage and least group management, miserable his commerce worth into considerably affordable territory. That mentioned, he’s coming off a career-best season by fWAR, so he can’t be had for peanuts.
The greatest concern with Happ as a attainable Blue Jays goal is that he’s clearly higher in left than centre, which implies that he’d be extra prone to share centre with Springer than take the place outright.
Trading for Happ can be a transfer to punt Toronto’s defensive questions down the street one other 12 months whereas making certain the group’s lineup stays elite.
While there’s nothing incorrect with that plan in idea, a part of the logic in shifting on from Hernández gave the impression to be creating an outfield that match collectively extra neatly than current iterations — no less than defensively.
Bringing in Happ would create yet one more unbalanced outfield unit that maximizes offence at the price of run prevention.
The Teoscar Hernández in 2017 sort
Jesús Sánchez
Age: 25
Bats: Left
2022 stats: .214/.280/.403 line in 343 plate appearances, with 13 HR and 1 SB (0.9 fWAR)
2023 wage or MLBTR projected arbitration wage: MLB minimal
Years of group management: 5
Why he may match: Although prioritizing instruments over monitor file has led the Blue Jays to buying outfielders like Derek Fisher and Socrates Brito lately, it’s additionally what landed them Hernández within the first place.
Over the final two seasons Sánchez hasn’t established himself as an on a regular basis participant with Miami, however his skills are undoubtedly compelling. The Dominican outfielder has big uncooked energy as his 96th percentile max exit velocity attests, and a giant arm headlines his defensive instruments.
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The concern right here is that he hasn’t damaged via but, and his strategy on the plate can border on wild, however Steamer tasks him for a .245/.312/.440 line subsequent season — good for a 113 wRC+. That echoes the .251/.319/.489 (114 wRC+) he produced in 251 plate appearances in 2021.
There’s additionally proof to recommend that the ban on the shift may assist him flourish, as overloaded defences hampered his effectiveness final season and he was shifted almost 50 % of the time.
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Betting on Sánchez would carry threat, however his value wouldn’t be outrageous and selecting him would enable the group to allocate extra assets to different components of the roster.
The Top Prospect
Sal Frelick
Age: 22
Bats: Left
2022 stats: .331/.403/.480 line in 562 plate appearances, with 11 HR and 24 SB at A+, AA, and AAA
2023 wage or MLBTR projected arbitration wage: MLB minimal
Years of group management: 6
Why he may match: In most circumstances Frelick isn’t the kind of participant who’s out there on the commerce market. Regardless of which prospect checklist you take a look at, he’s a top-four prospect for the Milwaukee Brewers and he tends to come back in behind simply Jackson Chourio.
Even so, there is perhaps a chance for a transfer right here contemplating the Brewers’ high 5 prospects in line with MLB Pipeline all play the outfield and the group promoted Garrett Mitchell and gave him the beginning centre area job on the finish of 2022 with glorious outcomes.
Trades for Brett Lawrie and Devon Travis are two examples of the Blue Jays buying prospects with a watch on making them rapid starters, and that blueprint may work with Frelich.
The 22-year-old has excellent contact means and a terrific sense of the strike zone. He struck out simply 16 instances in 217 Triple-A plate appearances final 12 months, and Steamer tasks him for a 111 wRC+ within the majors subsequent season.
Frelich would require a major return contemplating his potential to be a long-term answer at a premium place, however the Brewers don’t have a catching prospect of word within the excessive minors — and Victor Caratini is a below-average veteran starter.
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