Mookie’s case to take NL MVP over Acuña
For months, it appeared all however sure that Ronald Acuña Jr. would win the National League Most Valuable Player Award in a rout – presumably unanimously. Maybe he nonetheless will, as a result of he’s actually executed nothing to injure his case; he’s merely hitting .343/.427/.565 this month because the Braves coast to a sixth consecutive division title. But, by means of no fault of his personal, it’s not fairly so clear anymore, is it?
That’s as a result of Mookie Betts is ending off the perfect month of what’s more and more wanting like a Hall of Fame profession. Entering Monday, he led Acuña in house runs, OPS, and each main variations of Wins Above Replacement. While award ballots aren’t – and shouldn’t be – a easy “rank the WAR” train, particularly with regards to tiny fractions of a win, each main WAR variations are in actual settlement concerning the Betts lead has, even after Acuña’s 4-for-5 with a homer and two steals efficiency in Colorado on Monday.
Leading the league in WAR, house runs and OPS, all for a first-place group? Maybe the query is much less what Betts’ case is for profitable the award, and extra what his case for not profitable it’s.
That’s too glib, after all. What Betts is missing is the season-long narrative of being the front-runner for the award, which issues quite a bit. What he’s missing are the 51 (!) further stolen bases that Acuña has, seemingly on the way in which to historical past’s first 30/70 season, having already achieved historical past’s first 30/60 season, at that. But if we’re discussing narratives right here, then the narrative of Betts answering the decision to maneuver from proper discipline to start out 53 video games (and counting) as a center infielder, simply because his group wanted him to, is a robust one in and of itself.
That that is even a dialog (and it’s!) says significantly extra concerning the greatness of Betts than it does about any imagined flaw of Acuña’s. How did Betts even get right here – and the way do you outline worth, anyway?
(A quick second to acknowledge Freddie Freeman, who’s within the midst of the perfect full season of his personal Hall of Fame profession; he’s, consider it or not, simply 10 factors behind Luis Arraez for the Major League lead in batting common and should set the Major League document for doubles, every feats which might seemingly catch the eyes of some voters. He truly leads Acuña in FanGraphs WAR. But since Freeman performs first base and lags Betts in slugging and each Betts and Acuña in house runs, he’s missing a few of that narrative high quality that issues when people vote on awards.
To a lesser extent than that, this is applicable additionally to Matt Olson, who will in all probability hit 50 homers and lead the game in RBIs, although he’ll lag in WAR as a consequence of lack of baserunning worth and first base protection that’s, by his personal admission, lower than his normal commonplace. With the understanding {that a} red-hot end might change the equation, we’ll contemplate this a two-man race for now.)
1) It took Betts’ finest month on the plate to even get right here
As of Tuesday, Betts, who spent a part of final offseason coaching with weighted bats at Driveline Baseball, is second within the Majors (behind solely Shohei Ohtani) in slugging proportion and OPS, and he’s already tied his personal profession excessive with 35 homers.
This is the important thing, as a result of for a lot of the season, Betts trailed Acuña in hitting manufacturing, and as we famous earlier, Acuña has hardly run into any sort of droop. Instead, Betts has turned it on, in a approach that could be simpler understood should you take a look at their respective month-to-month OPS. It’s indeniable that Acuña received off to a sooner begin than Betts did, simply because it’s indeniable that Betts has had a much better August than Acuña has had. In between? From May by means of July, Betts had a 1.000 OPS. Acuña had a .989 OPS, which is to say: primarily similar.
The distinction is in that first month, and the newest month. Since Betts’ benefit in August was bigger than Acuña’s was in April, the season-long totals mirror that Betts has been considerably higher on the plate, principally with regards to energy, as a result of he has 11 further extra-base hits.
Betts: .312/.406/.606, 1.011 OPS, 169 OPS+, 35 HR
Acuña: .335/.418/.572, .989 OPS, 164 OPS+, 29 HR
Betts now holds a 22-point hole in OPS. Acuña has scored 9 extra runs, and Betts has an fringe of 14 in RBIs. They every have glorious strikeout charges and stroll charges, each higher than common.
But it took till Aug. 20 for Betts to take the lead in OPS, and that’s key right here. Given Acuña’s giant lead in stolen bases, which we’ll get to in a second, Betts was just about going to should hit as nicely or higher to make a robust case, which he now lastly has – due to the finest month he’s ever had. It’s probably the greatest months anybody’s had within the final 10 seasons, truly.
Betts, finest months ever, by OPS
1.282 // August 2023
1.200 // May 2018
1.173 // April 2018
1.156 // September 2018
1.103 // August 2020
This will get into “create whatever narrative you prefer” territory, actually. If you wish to credit score Acuña for consistency, be happy to take action. If you wish to credit score Betts for bettering because the season goes on and taking part in on the highest stage because the playoffs close to, credit score him for that, too. There’s by no means going to be a proper reply there.
Aside from batting common, Betts leads Acuña in most each notable batting metric, together with the batting element of WAR (FanGraphs has Betts at 51 batting runs, finest within the NL, with Acuña third behind Freeman, at 49). Though Betts isn’t more likely to repeat his August, that 22-point lead in OPS appears a tough one to beat within the closing few weeks, and the projections counsel that they need to carry out about identically in that regard for the remainder of the season, which might be a becoming finale for 2 elite hitters.
If that occurs, Betts will lead in OPS, and he’ll seemingly lead in WAR, and … nicely, what would that imply?
2) How uncommon would it not be to guide the league in WAR and OPS and never win the MVP?
“Sixteen of the last 28 MVPs led their league in bWAR,” Benjamin Alter wrote for SABR earlier this yr, noting additionally that solely as soon as within the final 15 seasons did an MVP win with out ending with a top-5 WAR whole, a sign of the strengthening acceptance of the metric through the years. Having essentially the most WAR in a season doesn’t (and shouldn’t) assure an MVP Award, however main the league in it certainly says quite a bit about how precious you had been. How typically, then, does a participant lead in OPS, and in WAR? And in the event that they do this, as Betts at present does, how typically does that flip into an award?
Since the Baseball Writers’ Association of America started voting for MVPs in 1931, a participant has led his league in OPS and WAR 80 instances. (That’s 43 within the NL, and 37 within the AL.) Only 42 of these seasons ended with an MVP season, or simply over half. That looks like a disappointing correlation, besides that it’s accounting for all of these seasons from almost a century in the past lengthy earlier than anybody had heard of any such factor.
Maybe it’s extra helpful to stay to trendy instances. Just take a look at the way it’s gone because the yr 2000:
National League since 2000
The two that didn’t? In 2000, when voters certainly didn’t know deal with the numbers Todd Helton put up in a pre-humidor Coors Field (he completed fifth), and 2017, which isn’t onerous to clarify in any respect, as a result of Giancarlo Stanton was primarily tied with Joey Votto in WAR (7.9 to Votto’s 8.1), however he hit 59 homers on the way in which to the MVP.
American League since 2000
So, you may say that within the final 20 years, the participant who leads in OPS and WAR has gained 10 of 12 instances (83%), a quantity that’s most certainly going to vary provided that Ohtani is bound to guide the AL in these classes as nicely – and Betts is on monitor to take action within the NL. To do this, and never win the award, would require a fairly compelling narrative. Fortunately for Acuña, he has one – however so does Betts.
Acuña has 61 steals after two on Monday evening, essentially the most in baseball. Betts has 10. If we put that into our tremendous fancy science calculator, we’ll discover that Acuña has stolen over six instances the bases that Betts has. It’s quite a bit. It’s so many, and the explanations are varied, as MLB.com’s David Adler dove into just lately. It’s not nearly velocity; it’s additionally, it appears, about being smart sufficient to appreciate that the sport has modified and aggression is sweet. This is clearly the most important promoting level of any “Acuña for MVP” case, that he’ll find yourself with almost unparalleled energy/velocity numbers, seemingly ending with a historic 30/70 season. (A 40/70 season, which as soon as appeared potential, now appears unlikely, since he’s hit solely 9 homers because the begin of July.)
But for Betts supporters, there are two straightforward counterpoints right here. The first is that Acuña has additionally been caught stealing greater than anybody, and making an out on the bases hurts greater than gaining a base helps, although that hardly closes the hole.
The second is the in-season transfer Betts made to (principally) second base and (sometimes) shortstop, adjustments necessitated by early-season accidents to Chris Taylor and Miguel Rojas and the July demotion of struggling rookie second baseman Miguel Vargas to the Minor Leagues. Every recreation Betts has performed within the infield is one which James Outman, David Peralta, or Jason Heyward (cumulative .766 OPS) have been capable of play, versus extra of Vargas.
Entering Monday, Betts has appeared in 92 video games in proper discipline, 48 at second, and 16 at brief. Here is the total and full checklist in AL/NL historical past of gamers to seem in at the very least 15 video games at second, brief, and any outfield place, in a season the place in addition they hit at the very least 25 house runs:
Acuña posting a 30/70, or no matter he finally ends up at, is an extremely spectacular feat. Betts transferring into the center infield (and again to proper, and again once more, whereas hitting equally nicely in any respect three of them) is spectacular in its personal approach. Will voters have the ability to contemplate both one extra spectacular? It’s an not possible alternative.
4) Defense metrics both favor Betts, or neither.
If we actually wish to invite controversy, let’s put this one on the market: Advanced metrics do not essentially agree on Betts, however they suppose that Acuña’s general defensive recreation has been merely round common this yr.
It’s not onerous to clarify what Statcast sees within the six-time Gold Glover, Betts, and it’s not new. His once-elite velocity has declined as he’s aged, and now, at 30, he’s in possession of precisely league-average velocity, which will be seen in the truth that he’s now rated as extra good-than-great in baserunning. His protection has adopted go well with because the glove that was as soon as all-world (by means of 2018) grew to become stable (by means of 2022) and this yr is extra common.
What he might lose in defensive metrics, nonetheless, he may simply achieve again in spotlight reel performs:
There’s truly a extremely entertaining world wherein Betts wins the utility participant Gold Glove award, first handed out final season. But both approach, the Betts case right here is not a lot “beloved by defensive metrics” as it’s “this is not an area where Acuña has a clear advantage in an MVP case.”
5) So who actually has the sting proper now?
Both stars have a monitor document of success and play for a first-place membership, so there’s not a lot of a differentiator there. Both have a slugging first baseman as their operating mate, so there’s a considerably related “vote-splitting” issue. If you care about context-dependent stats like win likelihood, they’re mainly tied there, although Betts has a wholesome lead with runners in scoring place.
The proper reply right here is there isn’t a proper reply, not proper now, as August turns into September. You could make a robust case for both one – or actually Freeman, too – and also you wouldn’t be incorrect, as a result of they’re all deserving. Much like Ohtani vs. Aaron Judge final yr, when you could have two elite gamers having really excellent seasons, typically the one mistake you may make shouldn’t be appreciating each on the expense of needing to decide on a winner.
As issues stand, Acuña has the benefit of getting held the lead all season lengthy and having executed completely nothing in any respect to squander that lead, which is highly effective. But on the identical time, it is clear Betts has an especially good case, as a result of that is how nicely he is performed. In September, it’s going to be an especially attention-grabbing race. But it’s, at the very least, that. For the primary time, it is now an precise race.
