Matching new-look Blue Jays lineup vs. AL East’s top arms

It stays to be seen if the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays are extra profitable than their 2022 counterparts, however they’re extra versatile.

The staff has considerably extra left-right steadiness within the lineup, and it’s added a number of place gamers able to enjoying centre discipline. Daulton Varsho even provides them an choice behind the dish.

There should be one other place participant or two who will get added to the combination as we get nearer to the season, too.

In order to get a really feel for a gaggle of place gamers with extra various expertise than the staff has featured lately, we thought we’d mess around with some lineups.

More particularly, to check the concept this group is extra versatile, we determined to attract up its absolute best lineups to face the AL East’s 5 most intimating starters: Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan, Carlos Rodón, Tyler Glasnow and Luis Severino.

(You may additionally make a case for Chris Sale or Nestor Cortes Jr., however these are the 5 we’re launching this thought experiment with.)

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Before we roll out the lineup playing cards, right here’s what it’s essential know:

• The participant pool is everybody on FanGraphs’ Roster Resource depth chart, excluding Nathan Lukes, who doesn’t have an MLB observe document.

• George Springer at all times goes within the leadoff spot — you could possibly make a case for him to go decrease, however there’s no proof the Blue Jays are considering utilizing him in another function.

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are at all times pencilled in for top-four spots within the lineup. Unless both is in a critical funk, it’s unlikely they’ll drop decrease.

• No one performs a place they didn’t play final 12 months on the MLB degree.

• Many of the numbers you’ll see on this article are from the final three years as a result of after we’re coping with splits in opposition to totally different pitch sorts or velocity samples, it may be too small to take a lot from in single seasons.

With that in thoughts, right here we go:

Gerrit Cole

Throws: Right

Four-seam fastball velocity: 97.8 mph

2022 pitch combine: Four-seam fastball (51.9%), Slider (22.6%), Curveball (10.8%), Changeup (8.4%), Cutter (6.4%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF George Springer

1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

SS Bo Bichette

LF Daulton Varsho

C Alejandro Kirk

3B Matt Chapman

DH Brandon Belt

2B Whit Merrifield

CF Kevin Kiermaier

Rationale: Because Cole makes use of a assorted pitch combine, the principle qualities we’re searching for in hitters to counter him are guys who’re able to dealing with the warmth.

Varsho will get a nod within the cleanup spot as a result of he has by far one of the best wOBA on the staff in opposition to 97-plus-mph pitches during the last three seasons (.446). We’ve received Guerrero Jr. at second as a result of it’s a barely extra necessary lineup place than his regular third — and he’s dealt with Cole effectively prior to now.

Kirk is a greater high-velo hitter than Chapman, so he will get the nod for a better spot. Merrifield might be the subsequent guess as a man who’s able to dealing with the warmth with a strong 6-for-17 in opposition to Cole.

He falls to separate up the lefties, who could possibly be in bother.

Belt has struggled with velo of Cole’s calibre with a .196 wOBA, however Danny Jansen is at .198 and so we’ll roll with the platoon benefit and keep away from going with two catchers. Kiermaier is 5-for-34 in opposition to Cole, however eradicating him means going to Cavan Biggio or Santiago Espinal.

Biggio has two residence runs in opposition to Cole, however he’s additionally struck out greater than half the time and struggles with warmth. Espinal isn’t that a lot better in opposition to elite velo, and isn’t nice in opposition to right-handers total.

Leaving Kiermaier is a little bit of a punt on offence, however most groups don’t have 9 good choices in opposition to Cole, and his glove is efficacious.

Shane McClanahan

Throws: Left

Four-seam fastball velocity: 96.7 mph

2022 pitch combine: Four-seam fastball (35.7%), Changeup (25.4%), Curveball (23.4%),

Slider (15.5%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF Springer

SS Bichette

DH Kirk

1B Guerrero Jr.

3B Chapman

2B Espinal

LF Merrifield

C Jansen

CF Varsho

Rationale: Bichette strikes as much as the two-hole right here as his wRC+ in opposition to southpaws (141) is healthier than Vladdy’s (131) during the last three years.

Espinal will get a outstanding spot primarily based on his strong 125 wRC+ in opposition to lefties over the identical time span. It’s a greater quantity than Chapman’s (117), however the pattern is smallish and the third baseman’s energy appears to be like higher in the course of the lineup.

This is a state of affairs the place the Blue Jays’ want for an additional right-handed bat turns into obvious.

In order to sit down Kiermaier — who struggles in opposition to 96-plus-mph fastballs, and hits has a team-low .204 wOBA in opposition to lefty sliders (McClanahan’s second-favourite pitch for left-handed hitters) — it’s important to play Varsho, who has a profession 66 wRC+ vs. southpaws.

Jansen additionally finds himself on this lineup regardless of a doubtful document in opposition to lefties with a profession 83 wRC+.

Kiermaier wants to sit down, utilizing Belt at DH in opposition to a high-velo lefty doesn’t appear attractive and Biggio’s bat doesn’t play in opposition to powerful lefties — so the staff has little or no selection.

A right-handed hitter with the flexibility to play the outfield would go a great distance for matchups like this.

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Carlos Rodón

Throws: Left

Four-seam fastball velocity: 95.5 mph

2022 pitch combine: Four-seam fastball (61.2%), Slider (31.1%), Curveball (5.7%), Changeup (2.0%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF Springer

SS Bichette

DH Kirk

1B Guerrero Jr.

3B Chapman

LF Merrifield

2B Espinal

C Jansen

CF Kiermaier

Rationale: Rodón is a special flavour of southpaw than McClanahan, with rather less velocity and a extra condensed pitch combine.

There are solely two strikes to make right here from the earlier alignment. First, Merrifield leaps over Espinal on account of his distinctive observe document in opposition to Rodón (10-for-25), which comes from a small pattern, however is robust sufficient to offer him an edge.

We’re additionally going to flip Varsho for Kiermaier partially as a result of Rodón’s warmth isn’t as intense as McClanahan.

Kiermaier has a barely higher wOBA (.273) in opposition to lefty fastballs and sliders than Varsho (.271) during the last three years, and Rodòn throws these two pitches to same-handed hitters 96.5 per cent of the time.

That’s an especially small distinction, however this train was at all times going to contain splitting some hairs.

Tyler Glasnow

Throws: Right

Four-seam fastball velocity: 97.4 mph

2021 pitch combine (Glasnow pitched simply 6.2 innings in 2022): Four-seam fastball (51.6%), Slider (32.3%), Curveball (13.5%), Changeup (2.5%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF Springer

1B Guerrero Jr.

SS Bichette

DH Belt

C Kirk

LF Varsho

3B Chapman

2B Merrifield

CF Kiermaier

Rationale: Glasnow presents the identical velocity problem as Cole, however he’s extra breaking-ball targeted, throwing sliders and curveballs almost half of the time.

His inclination to make use of the comfortable stuff has Belt cleansing up as he’s by far the Blue Jays’ greatest hitter in opposition to right-handed breaking balls.

In reality, since 2020, his .420 wOBA in opposition to righty sliders and curveballs ranks second within the majors amongst all hitters with a minimum of 2,500 pitches seen, behind solely Mike Trout.

Other than that includes Belt as the highest lefty bat over Varsho, there aren’t many important alterations from the Cole lineup.

You may make an argument for Jansen right here on account of a barely higher observe document in opposition to breaking stuff, however Glasnow is extra fastball-heavy in opposition to right-handers, and Kirk’s knack for making contact with elite velocity ought to remain within the lineup.

This looks as if it will be a spot to include Biggio, however we’re scared off by the actual fact he’s struck out in 5 of seven appearances in opposition to Glasnow. Meanwhile, Merrifield is 3-for-6.

That’s most likely small-sample-size nonsense, however this alignment retains left-right steadiness within the backside of the lineup.

Biggio is at all times useful to have on the bench on account of his potential to take advantage of pitchers with command points, pinch run and play a number of positions.

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Luis Severino

Throws: Right

Four-seam fastball velocity: 96.3 mph

2022 pitch combine: Four-seam fastball (48.1%), Changeup (22.4%), Slider (21.1%), Cutter (7.3%), Sinker (1.1%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF Springer

1B Guerrero Jr.

SS Bichette

CF Varsho

3B Chapman

DH Belt

C Jansen

2B Biggio

LF Merrifield

Rationale: Severino has the bottom fastball charge of any of those pitchers, which might usually bump Belt up, however he throws heaters 56.1 per cent of time to left-handed bats and 42.6 per cent to righties.

What same-handed hitters see is greater than 50 per cent of the time is a combo of sliders, changeups and cutters. Jansen’s wOBA in opposition to these pitches from righties (.338) is considerably higher than Kirk’s (.298) since 2020, so the All-Star takes a seat.

This is one other must-sit spot for Kiermaier, who’s 3-for-30 in his profession in opposition to Severino with 13 strikeouts.

Kiermaier’s absence ends in the primary begin for Biggio right here. Espinal struggles in opposition to the secondary stuff Severino likes to throw to right-handers, and Merrifield is a greater outfield choice by profession OAA, so he winds up on the keystone.

Conclusions

Playing this out reveals us a few issues.

The first is that the Blue Jays may actually use one other right-handed outfielder for matchups with powerful lefties — and to assist in giving Springer the odd day without work, a variable that isn’t thought of above.

Merrifield can be surprisingly exhausting to take off the sphere as a result of he’s good in opposition to southpaws, strong in opposition to high-velocity and positionally versatile.

Because the 5 pitchers above all carry important warmth, Biggio’s function is probably going understated in these mock-ups, however he ought to have loads of enjoying time at second base.

Espinal could battle to search out enjoying time in opposition to righties, although, as there’s often a greater case for Merrifield or Biggio in these matchups.

This staff might not be full, however even whether it is, it’s clear that supervisor John Schneider has extra methods to maneuver his gamers round than he did final season.

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