Looking at players trending towards election to Baseball Hall of Fame
Over the previous few cycles of Baseball Hall of Fame balloting, the BBWAA citizens has not been a charitable bunch. Only two gamers — David Ortiz and Scott Rolen — have been elected to the Hall by the writers since 2021. And even they only barely made it previous the 75 per cent threshold obligatory for election, as Ortiz acquired votes from 77.9 per cent of members, whereas Rolen earned 76.3 per cent in his sixth yr on the poll.
But 2024 might break the pattern. It seems seemingly that BBWAA members will elect a minimum of two gamers to the Hall this winter, and presumably as many as 4. We can say that due to the diligent and indispensable work of Ryan Thibodaux and his Hall of Fame monitoring workforce, who’ve been tabulating public & nameless ballots forward of voting outcomes being introduced on January 23.
As of January 18, Thibodaux and co. had logged 177 ballots of their 2024 Hall of Fame tracker, representing an estimated 46.1 per cent of the citizens. Utilizing their information, let’s take a look at who’s trending to get a plaque, who’s falling quick however remaining on the poll, and who’s in peril of dropping off.
Trending in the direction of election
Adrian Beltre (98.9% of identified ballots)
Joe Mauer (83.6%)
Todd Helton (83.1%)
Billy Wagner (79.7%)
Beltre is a slam dunk to be elected, as his case appeals to voters that lean each old-school and new. He has the counting stats (over 3,000 hits and 450 homers), the superior metrics (93.5 profession bWAR and 200 profession DRS), the {hardware} (5 Gold Gloves and 4 Silver Sluggers), and the longevity (practically 3,000 video games performed over 21 MLB seasons). Add in a lovable status as a tireless employee, revered teammate, and sometimes goofy fun-seeker, and it will’ve been a shock to see Beltre miss election in his first yr of eligibility.
Mauer’s robust help, nonetheless, comes as one thing of a shock. It’s not about his case, which is phenomenal. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric ranks Mauer because the seventh-most deserving catcher all-time. No catcher within the recreation’s historical past has gained as many batting titles; Mauer’s 55.2 profession WAR ranks ninth all-time amongst catchers; he hit .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+ over an almost 2,000-game profession.
It’s in regards to the conventional voting traits of the citizens. Only 10 catchers have been elected to the corridor by the BBWAA, and simply two of them — Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez — made it in throughout their first yr on the poll.
The place’s appreciable bodily and psychological stress — which leads to fixed wear-and-tear, video games missed attributable to damage, and enjoying time restrictions imposed by golf equipment making an attempt to maintain their most vital defenders as recent as doable — naturally results in offensive output that pales compared to gamers at much less demanding positions. But that reality hasn’t resonated with BBWAA voters, who’ve historically held catchers to a a lot greater offensive bar than they should be.
And but, right here Mauer is, showing on over 80 per cent of identified ballots. Maybe Mauer’s sterling status was sufficient to steer the previous guard to return round to his case. Maybe the make-up of the citizens is solely shifting youthful and extra open-minded. Either manner, Mauer seems headed for Cooperstown — an inevitable and deserved outcome.
Helton, in the meantime, has seen a gentle enhance in help over his 5 years on the poll and missed election by solely 11 votes final yr. He’s appeared on over 90 per cent of first-time voters’ ballots up to now and can want continued assist from these not submitting theirs to the Tracker to recover from the end line.
It seems it’s solely a matter of time — because it was within the instances of Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, and Rolen — earlier than sufficient of the citizens comes round on Helton. It’s at all times been troublesome to rectify how David Ortiz and Fred McGriff could be hall-of-famers whereas Helton can’t. And this may very well be the yr his identify is lastly referred to as.
Wagner, too, is progressively gaining help as time wears on and is well-positioned to be solely the ninth reliever elected to the corridor. After falling 27 votes shy of the 75 per cent threshold final yr, Wagner’s up to now netted six votes from returning voters, and has been chosen by 10 first-time voters, in his ninth yr on the poll.
He could finally fall simply quick and wish one remaining push in 2025 — his remaining yr of poll eligibility. But if Trevor Hoffman’s a hall-of-famer, a dominant reliever like Wagner who has a strikeout fee 7.4 factors greater and an ERA greater than a half-run decrease over a 900-inning profession should be, too. And voters appear to slowly however absolutely be coming round to that.
Trending to overlook election and stay on the poll
Andruw Jones (71.2% of identified ballots)
Carlos Beltran (66.7%)
Chase Utley (43.5%)
Alex Rodriguez (39.5%)
Manny Ramirez (35.6%)
Bobby Abreu (19.8%)
Andy Pettitte (15.8%)
Jimmy Rollins (14.1%)
Omar Vizquel (10.2%)
Mark Buehrle (7.9%)
Francisco Rodriguez (7.3%)
David Wright (7.3%)
Torii Hunter (4.5%)
This assortment of gamers seems prone to fall in need of the induction threshold however stay up for consideration subsequent winter because of showing on a minimum of 5 per cent of ballots.
The most conspicuous amongst them are Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez. Their statistical instances are actually compelling, however a good portion of voters proceed refusing to vote for them attributable to their ties to performance-enhancing drug use. Both would want dramatic vote share will increase to even get near election — and with every passing yr, that outcome seems an increasing number of unlikely. Particularly for Ramirez, who’s in his eighth yr on the poll.
The perpetually underappreciated Andrew Jones, in the meantime, has gained help over the past a number of cycles because the poll clog has eased. But it seems unlikely that 2024 shall be his yr. Carlos Beltran has additionally elevated favour in his second yr of consideration, netting 16 votes from returning voters. Some are seemingly nonetheless punishing him for his involvement in Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal. But the nine-time all-star nonetheless has eight years of runway remaining to proceed bettering his vote share.
Six-time all-star and four-time Silver Slugger Chase Utley’s made a robust debut, showing on practically 45 per cent of identified ballots. His borderline case shall be an fascinating one to look at within the coming cycles. David Wright can also be monitoring to outlive in his first yr of consideration, though he has substantial floor to make up.
Hunter, in the meantime, retains hanging round simply north of the 5 per cent threshold required to stay on the poll. He appeared on 5.3 per cent of ballots in 2022 and 6.9 per cent in 2023. He’ll want to select up a dozen votes on unknown ballots as a way to skate by once more.
Trending to overlook election and drop off the poll
Gary Sheffield (74% of identified ballots)
Jose Bautista (1.1%)
Bartolo Colon (0.6%)
Matt Holliday (0.6%)
Victor Martinez (0.6%)
Adrian Gonzalez (0%)
Brandon Phillips (0%)
Jose Reyes (0%)
James Shields (0%)
Sheffield’s case is essentially the most fascinating right here, as he’s in his tenth and remaining yr on the poll. He’s netted 13 votes from returning voters, plus eight from first-timers, which has him monitoring simply beneath the induction threshold on the 46 per cent of ballots we’ve seen up to now. He’ll must be included on 76 per cent of remaining ballots to be inducted.
But, historically, a big portion of voters who don’t reveal their ballots haven’t been in favour of Sheffield’s case. This phase of the citizens tends to be older, conservative, and extra liable to punish gamers linked to performance-enhancing drug use, as Sheffield was in the course of the 2004 BALCO scandal.
That’s why it seems seemingly Sheffield will miss induction as soon as once more and be left with one final likelihood for consideration by the Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee which can subsequent think about candidates to have handed by means of the BBWAA course of in 2025. That committee will encompass 16 folks, together with Hall of famers, MLB executives, and veteran media members, as appointed by the Hall of Fame’s board of administrators.
Meanwhile, there are not any surprises among the many gamers trending in the direction of elimination from the poll of their first yr of eligibility: Jose Bautista, Bartolo Colon, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Victor Martinez, Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, and James Shields.
