How this one-time MVP found new life in Chicago

Baseball
Published 12.05.2023
How this one-time MVP found new life in Chicago
Cody Bellinger rebounding with Cubs in 2023

n”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”kind”:”wealthy”,”width”:550},”kind”:”oembed”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:””I think it’s more of a relaxed look in the box,” Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly mentioned in February. “He’s always [had] kind of a tall, upright stance. But there’s a little bit of flexibility in there as he starts to make his move toward the pitcher, and kind of gets into his heel strike.”nnIt will get deeper than that, _way_ deeper. If you’re serious about 3,000 or so good words on the subject, Tieran Alexander made a compelling case that the infamous 2020 World Series shoulder harm wasn’t the reason for Bellinger’s issues a lot because the 2021 fractured leg that he played through, a physical issue that potentially affected his swing for months.nnWe’re not swing doctors, but Bellinger is presumably healthy now — his 84th percentile Sprint Speed is better than it was in either of the last two seasons, and he worked with a physical trainer for the primary time this previous winter. Rather than delve too deeply into the specifics of his heel strike, let’s break his season down into the 2 most elementary components of hitting: making contact, and _not_ making contact.”,”kind”:”markdown”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”**1. It’s solely slightly concerning the sort of contact he’s making**nnAs we mentioned, he’s not hitting the ball more durable than final yr, and that’s down significantly from his peak. His ground-ball charge isn’t meaningfully totally different. One of the fancier Statcast metrics signifies that the standard of his contact, whereas higher than both of the final two years, continues to be solely the fifth better of his seven seasons. To put some [2023 comparables](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPTM=&hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=Rpercent7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2023percent7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&place=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=flypercent5C.%5C.ballpercent7Cpopuppercent7Clinepercent5C.%5C.drivepercent7Cgroundpercent5C.%5C.ballpercent7C&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=title&min_pitches=0&min_results=100&min_pas=0&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_xwoba=on#outcomes) right here, his contact high quality is one thing like Gleyber Torres or Jonathan India.nnThat’s advantageous, and “fine” is an enormous enchancment over the past two seasons. It’s simply that even when we embrace Spring Training and postseason, the ten hardest-hit balls Bellinger has had over the past 4 years all got here in 2020. His [home run on April 16](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=ce4399b4-bb2b-43c5-8782-c36a1b6287b4) again at Dodger Stadium is his solely 2023 batted ball to crack the highest 35 of that listing.”,”kind”:”markdown”},{“__typename”:”Video”,”contentDate”:”2023-04-16T21:47:38.357Z”,”description”:”The information behind Cody Bellinger’s house run”,”showAsVideoGif”:true,”period”:”00:00:12″,”mp4AvcPlayagain”:”https://darkroom-clips.mlb.com/77be8e3b-1e7f-477b-b60c-1c924b302b6e.mp4″,”slug”:”breaking-down-cody-bellinger-s-home-run-x9319″,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”Tag”,”slug”:”data-visualization”,”title”:”data visualization”},{“__typename”:”Tag”,”slug”:”gamepk-718547″,”title”:”2023/04/16 chc@la”},{“__typename”:”Tag”,”slug”:”playerid-641355″,”title”:”Cody Bellinger”},{“__typename”:”Tag”,”slug”:”teamid-112″,”title”:”Chicago Cubs”}],”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/picture/add/{formatInstructions}/mlb/ye2w7oh0icggzs4cbds8″,”title”:”Breaking down Cody Bellinger’s house run”,”kind”:”video”,”url”:”/video/breaking-down-cody-bellinger-s-home-run-x9319″},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”It’s solely May, after all. But if we’re searching for the elite thump of outdated coming again, it’s not fairly there but.nn**2. It’s so much about how a lot contact he’s making**nnOK, so perhaps he’s not pounding the ball like he used to. But he’s nonetheless having an excellent season so far, and it’s largely about this — that his 18% strikeout charge is each A) so much higher than the 27% charge he had the final two years and B) similar to the 17% charge he had from 2019-20. While making contact doesn’t by itself result in success — look no additional than Cleveland’s weakest-in-baseball offense — it’s a significant signal of enchancment on this case.nnFor instance, have you ever seen how nicely he’s doing at not swinging by way of offspeed pitches, a pitch kind towards which he’d posted only a .158 common final yr?”,”kind”:”markdown”},{“__typename”:”PhotoHalf”,”caption”:null,”contextualCaption”:null,”contextualAspectRatio”:null,”credit score”:null,”format”:”png”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/picture/add/{formatInstructions}/mlb/ozi4a9oipwjfmvdaobjg”,”kind”:”photograph”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content material”:”Yet the place that is most attention-grabbing iswith two strikes, the place Bellinger is having one of the best manufacturing of any season of his profession, having minimize his swing-and-miss charge to a career-best 13% — or half what it was final yr. His manufacturing [before two strikes](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPTM=&hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=Rpercent7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=00percent7C01percent7C10percent7C11percent7C20percent7C21percent7C30percent7C31percent7C&hfSea=2023percent7C2022percent7C2021percent7C2020percent7C2019percent7C2018percent7C2017percent7C2016percent7C2015percent7C2014percent7C2013percent7C2012percent7C2011percent7C2010percent7C2009percent7C2008percent7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&place=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&batters_lookuppercent5Bpercent5D=641355&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=team-year&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=woba&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_abs=on&chk_stats_hits=on&chk_stats_k_percent=on&chk_stats_ba=on&chk_stats_obp=on&chk_stats_slg=on&chk_stats_woba=on#outcomes), in the meantime, is center of the pack primarily based on his personal observe file — far lower than the 2017-19 peak, much better than the 2020-22 downturn.nnWe’re nearly 5 years to the day [since the Athletic ran an article](https://theathletic.com/362819/2018/05/21/two-strikes-and-hes-in-doubt-whats-behind-cody-bellingers-struggle-at-the-plate/) that included the headline “What’s behind Cody Bellinger’s struggle at the plate?” There have been innumerable ups and downs since then. There most likely at all times might be. So if “back” means “back to the MVP winner we saw in 2019,” then no, most likely not. If “back” means “back to a quality player on a winning team,” then sure, an above-average center-field defender with an average-to-above bat (as most projection methods see him now) is a reasonably good participant to have. The Cubs appear loads joyful to have him.”,”kind”:”markdown”}],”storyType”:”news”,”subHeadline”:null,”abstract”:”Cody Bellinger had been something like the weakest regular hitter in the game from 2021-22, so when he signed a one-year deal with the Cubs last winter, it was well understood by both sides to be a low-cost gamble that would, at the very least, help Chicago improve some of”,”tagline({“stripMarkdown”:false})”:null,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”Tag”,”data”:{“__typename”:”UnsupportedTagType”},”externalSourceName”:null,”slug”:”storytype-article”,”title”:”Article”,”type”:”article”},{“__typename”:”Tag”,”data”:{“__typename”:”UnsupportedTagType”},”externalSourceName”:”customentity.contributor”,”slug”:”mike-petriello”,”title”:”Mike Petriello”,”type”:”contributor”},{“__typename”:”Tag”,”data”:{“__ref”:”Player:641355″},”externalSourceName”:”player”,”slug”:”playerid-641355″,”title”:”Cody 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28 minutes in the past

Six weeks into the season, the deal has paid off after which some. Bellinger is hitting .288/.360/.530, good for an OPS+ of 141 that makes him 41% above league common as a hitter. His April was so good that it was his finest month in 4 years. Throw within the protection that’s been as marketed, and he charges as one among baseball’s dozen most beneficial place gamers, not less than as far as FanGraphs is anxious.

So he’s “back,” proper? Well, no — not in the way in which you suppose. This model of Bellinger is a top quality participant, however one which in some ways hardly resembles the ascendant famous person who received the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2017 and the NL MVP Award in 2019. As he nears his twenty eighth birthday this summer season, we’re seeing yet one more of the seemingly countless iterations of Bellinger. Will this one final?

The finest model of Bellinger, the one we noticed in 2019 when he hit 47 homers and received a Gold Glove Award, hit the ball with each elite energy (86th percentile in hard-hit charge) and nice contact (78th percentile in strikeout charge. The worst model of Bellinger, the one we noticed in 2021 when he hit .165/.240/.302, didn’t do both of issues nicely, failing to hit the ball arduous (twentieth percentile in hard-hit) or actually even fairly often in any respect (seventeenth percentile in hard-hit charge).

The present Bellinger is someplace in between. He’s nonetheless not hitting the ball all that arduous (twenty seventh percentile hard-hit charge, within the vary of Lane Thomas and Wilmer Flores), however he’s doing a nice job of constructing extra contact, to the purpose that he’s bought one of many 10 finest strikeout charge decreases within the recreation. He’s a great hitter now; only a totally different one.

Even so, there are clear enhancements we’re seeing. What are they? It’s … difficult.

If it’s so troublesome to explain what the 2023 Bellinger is doing otherwise, that’s partly as a result of it looks as if he’s at all times doing one thing otherwise. Here’s a narrative from early 2019 about swing adjustments from 2018; right here’s a tidbit from July 2020 about adjustments headed into the abbreviated season; right here’s one from late 2021 about adjustments headed into the postseason; right here’s one from 2022 about his makes an attempt to alter coming off that disappointing 2021; true to type, Bellinger and his new crew entered 2023 speaking about swing adjustments.

“I think it’s more of a relaxed look in the box,” Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly mentioned in February. “He’s always [had] kind of a tall, upright stance. But there’s a little bit of flexibility in there as he starts to make his move toward the pitcher, and kind of gets into his heel strike.”

It will get deeper than that, manner deeper. If you’re serious about 3,000 or so good phrases on the topic, Tieran Alexander made a compelling case that the notorious 2020 World Series shoulder harm wasn’t the reason for Bellinger’s issues a lot because the 2021 fractured leg that he performed by way of, a bodily challenge that probably affected his swing for months.

We’re not swing medical doctors, however Bellinger is presumably wholesome now — his 84th percentile Sprint Speed is best than it was in both of the final two seasons, and he labored with a bodily coach for the primary time this previous winter. Rather than delve too deeply into the specifics of his heel strike, let’s break his season down into the 2 most elementary components of hitting: making contact, and not making contact.

1. It’s solely slightly concerning the sort of contact he’s making

As we mentioned, he’s not hitting the ball more durable than final yr, and that’s down significantly from his peak. His ground-ball charge isn’t meaningfully totally different. One of the fancier Statcast metrics signifies that the standard of his contact, whereas higher than both of the final two years, continues to be solely the fifth better of his seven seasons. To put some 2023 comparables right here, his contact high quality is one thing like Gleyber Torres or Jonathan India.

That’s advantageous, and “fine” is an enormous enchancment over the past two seasons. It’s simply that even when we embrace Spring Training and postseason, the ten hardest-hit balls Bellinger has had over the past 4 years all got here in 2020. His house run on April 16 again at Dodger Stadium is his solely 2023 batted ball to crack the highest 35 of that listing.

It’s solely May, after all. But if we’re searching for the elite thump of outdated coming again, it’s not fairly there but.

2. It’s so much about how a lot contact he’s making

OK, so perhaps he’s not pounding the ball like he used to. But he’s nonetheless having an excellent season so far, and it’s largely about this — that his 18% strikeout charge is each A) so much higher than the 27% charge he had the final two years and B) similar to the 17% charge he had from 2019-20. While making contact doesn’t by itself result in success — look no additional than Cleveland’s weakest-in-baseball offense — it’s a significant signal of enchancment on this case.

For instance, have you ever seen how nicely he’s doing at not swinging by way of offspeed pitches, a pitch kind towards which he’d posted only a .158 common final yr?

Yet the place that is most attention-grabbing iswith two strikes, the place Bellinger is having one of the best manufacturing of any season of his profession, having minimize his swing-and-miss charge to a career-best 13% — or half what it was final yr. His manufacturing earlier than two strikes, in the meantime, is center of the pack primarily based on his personal observe file — far lower than the 2017-19 peak, much better than the 2020-22 downturn.

We’re nearly 5 years to the day because the Athletic ran an article that included the headline “What’s behind Cody Bellinger’s struggle at the plate?” There have been innumerable ups and downs since then. There most likely at all times might be. So if “back” means “back to the MVP winner we saw in 2019,” then no, most likely not. If “back” means “back to a quality player on a winning team,” then sure, an above-average center-field defender with an average-to-above bat (as most projection methods see him now) is a reasonably good participant to have. The Cubs appear loads joyful to have him.