How depth of Toronto Blue Jays’ roster will determine 2024 fate
The Toronto Blue Jays’ quiet offseason could possibly be interpreted as an enormous wager on the staff’s core, however the membership is extra more likely to differentiate itself with the underside of its roster than the highest this season.
Kevin Gausman has a Cy Young ceiling, and the staff employs place gamers able to delivering star-level performances, however this group doesn’t run on star energy — prefer it did in 2021, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Marcus Semien had been MVP candidates, Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernández had been worthy all-stars, and Robbie Ray received the Cy Young.
The Blue Jays haven’t had a place participant high 4.5 fWAR in a season over the previous two years as Bo Bichette’s 2022 ranks 58th amongst all position-player campaigns by that metric. No one initiatives to recover from 4.3 in 2024 in accordance with FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection system.
A resurgent season by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a chance, Daulton Varsho’s defensive mastery provides him a street to producing large worth if his bat heats up, George Springer might construct on an enormous spring and Alejandro Kirk has began the All-Star Game at a premium place. There’s an opportunity a Blue Jay aside from Gausman produces at a really elite stage, however that hasn’t been the case recently.
It’s not honest to anticipate Toronto’s high canines to match as much as the celebrity duo of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in New York or the trio of Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker in Houston, as an illustration.
While that will sound grim, it’s additionally noteworthy that the Blue Jays’ depth is spectacular — and appears more likely to be a aggressive benefit over its direct rivals. Most aggressive golf equipment have competence on the backside of their rosters, however Toronto has some attainable difference-makers.
Alek Manoah is a superb instance. The vary of attainable outcomes for his season is huge — significantly as he offers with shoulder soreness — however no staff within the majors has a fifth starter with the potential to succeed in the heights Manoah skilled within the first two years of his profession.
Behind him sits a starter who’s proven loads of promise within the spring (Bowden Francis) and an skilled swingman who’s simply found stuff that might radically increase his potential (Mitch White), with a $32 million worldwide free agent wielding a compelling repertoire working his manner into the combination (Yariel Rodriguez).
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In the bullpen, Toronto figures to open the season with out its high two relievers, however nonetheless has a number of skilled late-inning arms like Yimi Garcia and Chad Green who’ve closed out video games loads of their careers.
Down two our bodies the Blue Jays have been capable of flip to an ultra-talented fireballer (Nate Pearson) and a hard-throwing groundball specialist (Zach Pop) with a sub-4 ERA on the MLB stage (3.94). The Tampa Bay Rays can seemingly conjure high quality relievers out of skinny air, however most different groups can’t and could be in a worse spot than the Blue Jays discover themselves in now.
On the position-player facet, the Blue Jays don’t have an on a regular basis spot for Davis Schneider, who began off his profession on a historic heater, crushed the ball at Triple-A final season, and initiatives for a wRC+ of 110 or above in accordance with 5 of FanGraphs’ six projection programs. It’s attainable that Joey Votto can nonetheless bang, and if he can he’ll be a heck of a bench asset as nicely. Maybe Daniel Vogelbach would possibly simply be what Blue Jays followers are dreaming Votto could possibly be.
None of that is to say that Toronto’s offseason deserves to be lauded as a triumph, or that the Blue Jays 2024 upcoming marketing campaign warrants unbridled optimism. There are loads of causes to be skeptical of this staff’s core, the underside of its lineup, and whether or not the seemingly minor harm points on the pitching employees will kind themselves out.
There’s a purpose the Blue Jays are projected to win between 85 and 88 video games and haven’t generated the identical stage of buzz as they did previous to the final two or three seasons.
It’s simply value remembering that whereas the methods this staff is underwhelming are front-and-centre, the issues that give it a bonus over its opponents are extra delicate. There is high quality up and down this roster from its deep pitching employees to a flexible mixture of place gamers that may enable the membership to trip sizzling arms and hunt matchups higher than it has in earlier seasons.
Whether that’s sufficient to uplift the highest of this roster stays to be seen — but when Toronto’s finest gamers observe up their underperformance in 2023 with projection-beating output in 2024 the fellows round them are unlikely to allow them to down.