How Blue Jays’ pitching splits could influence stretch-run matchups

TORONTO – For a lot of the 2023 season, the handedness of the Toronto Blue Jays roster has acquired quite a lot of consideration.

Before the season, the additions of Dalton Varsho, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier have been meant to even out the lineup. Génesis Cabrera was added close to the commerce deadline resulting from Tim Mayza’s standing as the one lefty within the bullpen. The discourse surrounding the staff on the deadline centred on whether or not it will add a right-handed bat.

These are the kind of subjects that come up for each MLB staff, however as a result of the Blue Jays have been seen as righty-dominant for therefore lengthy — together with throughout their earlier aggressive iteration in 2015 and 2016 — it’s extra salient for Toronto.

Despite the prominence of handedness for the Blue Jays, the staff’s radical pitching splits have flown beneath the radar. 

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Entering Thursday’s motion, Toronto has been completely dominant towards right-handed hitters, holding them to a .236/.294/.373 line — good for the second-lowest wOBA within the main leagues. Meanwhile, lefties have hit .243/.322/.428 towards Toronto, not a really disastrous complete, however nonetheless nineteenth amongst MLB groups by wOBA. 

Although the Blue Jays’ pitching has been glorious total, some matchups have the potential to render it considerably much less efficient. For occasion, on Friday they open a collection towards a Cleveland Guardians staff that may put as many as seven lefties in its lineup on a given day.

Fortunately for Toronto, Cleveland’s popgun offence ranks dead-last within the majors in remoted slugging and twenty fifth in wRC+, so they’re unlikely to be the staff to victimize the Blue Jays.

If the staff earns a wild-card berth, then its splits will turn into extra related. A matchup with the Houston Astros lineup appears to be like promising on paper because the staff has simply three lefties. The Tampa Bay Rays are in the identical boat.

On the opposite hand, the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers have a tendency to make use of 5 lefties — together with swap hitters — of their lineup towards right-handed pitching.

We are early within the scoreboard-watching course of and matchups aren’t going to be totally drilled down on till they’re confirmed, however for a Blue Jays staff that has gained with its pitching in 2023, these items may play an necessary function.

An intriguing wrinkle to the staff’s vital splits comes with the way it may have an effect on the way it may deploy a wild-card rotation relying on the matchup the staff drew. As Toronto’s clear ace, Kevin Gausman wouldn’t be affected — although he has had bother with left-handers after working reverse splits in 2021 and 2022 — however the pitchers behind him mission to carry out in another way towards righty-dominant or lefty-dominant lineups, primarily based on what we’ve seen this 12 months.

Yusei Kikuchi’s unbelievable work for the reason that All-Star break may conceivably power him into the Blue Jays’ prime three, however in sure matchups he’s most likely a greater guess than Chris Bassitt — an announcement that will’ve appeared preposterous earlier than the season. 

Although Jose Berríos has at all times been considerably higher with the platoon benefit, his splits aren’t as excessive as the previous New York Met, so he’s most likely good to go it doesn’t matter what. How efficient he’ll be might be quite matchup-dependent, although.

Southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu bears mentioning right here, but it surely’s value noting that he’s run reverse splits in his profession, largely resulting from his capacity to pound more durable stuff in on right-handers and get them waving at changeups away.

In the bullpen, it is going to be simpler to handle particular person matchups, notably with the presence of Cabrera, however as soon as the Blue Jays flip the ball over to their Jordans, the lefty drawback may rear its ugly head. 

Jordan Hicks has allowed lefties to supply a .375 OBP towards him in 2023, and for his profession their wOBA is 74 factors larger than it’s for righties. While Jordan Romano has run reverse splits earlier in his profession, lefties did barely higher towards him final 12 months, and in 2023 their wOBA is 57 factors larger than righties. 

Both pitchers can nonetheless be efficient once they lack the platoon benefit, however late in video games, the Blue Jays can be happier coping with right-handed bats.

Toronto has larger issues than worrying about its splits within the midst of a good playoff race, but when the Blue Jays discover themselves within the post-season, they’ll come into play. The staff could have balanced — and even overbalanced — its lineup, however its pitching employees appears to be like considerably much less intimidating when the massive lefty bats come out.

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