How Blue Jays’ Bowden Francis might do as a big-league starting pitcher
Bowden Francis got here to spring coaching trying like a man about to get his fourth style of Triple-A, however his prognosis has shifted considerably in latest days.
Part of that’s because of the 27-year-old’s sturdy work that has included eight innings of Grapefruit League ball with two runs allowed and 10 strikeouts, some stable readings on the radar gun, and the addition of a splitter to his repertoire.
An even bigger growth for Francis has been the shoulder points encountered by each Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah — in addition to the measured tempo Yariel Rodriguez is increase at.
All of the sudden, Francis seems to be extra like a pitcher more likely to begin the season within the Toronto Blue Jays’ rotation than a depth arm with a little bit function versatility.
Considering his age, the actual fact he’s been in Toronto’s group since 2021, and a minor-league profession that spans 614.1 innings, the right-hander has many qualities that may make him seem to be a recognized amount. While the 36.1 frames Francis gave the Blue Jays final yr out of the bullpen trace at what he can do as an MLB reliever, he’s an unknown as a starter.
The righty has began 50 video games on the Triple-A degree, however that quantity overstates his expertise degree. All of these outings resulted in simply 201.2 innings as Francis hasn’t functioned as a conventional starter a lot these days. In 2022 and 2023 his 30 Triple-A begins resulted in 28 outings that went lower than 5 innings. The final time he accomplished the fifth at that degree was May 10, 2022.
Toronto wouldn’t expect Francis to repeatedly get deep into video games on the major-league degree this yr, however he’s been dwelling within the two-to-four inning vary not too long ago — a far simpler project than beginning. In his 36.1 innings within the majors final season, 87.8 per cent of the hitters who confronted Francis have been doing so for the primary time.
What the right-hander has performed within the final couple of seasons doesn’t inform us a lot about his potential as a starter, however his stuff is a bit more instructive.
Francis doesn’t have overwhelming velocity, however he’s sat at a stable 94.5 mph in his three Grapefruit League appearances. That quantity doesn’t inform the entire story of that pitch, although.
Last season its vertical motion was 12 per cent higher than league common, and Francis did a very good job conserving it up within the zone to make the most of that motion to its best potential impact. Of the 362 pitchers who had 50-plus plate appearances resolved by a four-seamer final yr, his heater ranked eleventh in run worth per 100 pitches (+2.2).
Francis is more likely to lose a little bit little bit of that juice the longer his outings are, however he’s working from a stable baseline.
The different foundational pitch in his arsenal is a sluggish curveball that’s sat at 73.8 mph within the spring. What makes the pitch particular is that it has 52 per cent extra horizontal motion than the common curve. It runs away from right-handers, who had a whiff fee of 53.7 per cent towards it within the majors final yr — and it’s continued to look harmful within the spring.
Those two pitches made up 85.6 per cent of the pitches Francis threw with the Blue Jays final yr, and so they counsel a reliever profile. While the righty had pretty impartial right-left splits in a small MLB pattern, his two secondary pitchers — the curve, and a less-used slider — are each made to make right-handed batters uncomfortable.
His new splitter may serve a unique function. That pitch is his solely providing with arm-side fade, and it has the potential to be his greatest weapon towards lefties.
That thought is solely theoretical contemplating it’s a brand-new providing Francis has thrown all of 12 instances within the spring — a pattern sufficiently small that it’s too early to get a exact learn of the standard of the pitch’s motion and its potential effectiveness.
In most circumstances, when a group turns to a 27-year-old who’s spent way more time in Triple-A than the majors for 3 years of their rotation, it’s a pure desperation roll of the cube on a Quad-A kind. While the Blue Jays are undoubtedly sad concerning the well being of their starters, that isn’t the state of affairs right here.
Francis is a man who was within the high half of their FanGraphs prospect listing at the moment final yr with some legitimately attention-grabbing stuff which may be enhanced by a splitter that would assist mitigate his repertoire’s best weak spot.
None of that ensures his success.
Even near-average manufacturing in a five-and-dive function could be a superb consequence for the Blue Jays, however there’s a little bit little bit of upside right here. That’s not usually the case while you go far down the depth chart for a man who’s barely began in two years — and has by no means performed it within the majors.
