How an increase in whiffs has slowed Blue Jays’ Bichette’s momentum

Baseball

Published 19.07.2023

How an increase in whiffs has slowed Blue Jays’ Bichette’s momentum

Bo Bichette got here in 2023 as a participant who’d demonstrated exceptional year-to-year consistency with a wRC+ between 120 and 129 in every of the earlier three seasons.

The Toronto Blue Jays shortstop may all the time be counted on to compensate for a low stroll price with loads of energy and a capability to spray liners across the diamond — resulting in a excessive share of his balls in play resulting in hits.

All of that makes for a potent offensive profile, however early this season it appeared like Bichette had discovered a brand new degree. From the start of the season via May 31, the 25-year-old hit .333/.370/.525, good for a 149 wRC+.

Not solely was that manufacturing excellent, however with extra context it appeared much more spectacular. That’s as a result of Bichette had completed 2022 on a tear — which means that by the point June rolled round he’d put collectively a 396-plate look stretch with a 174 wRC+.

Those outcomes have been backed by a promising pattern for Bichette as his strikeout price dropped to 14.1 per cent, effectively under the 22.0 per cent price he’d posted in his profession previous to his September 2022 scorching streak. Strikeouts are statistics that are typically significant in comparatively brief samples and Bichette minimize his Ks by an enormous margin over an 88-game span.

Considering how harmful the shortstop’s balls in play are, hitting considerably extra of them appeared more likely to result in significant enchancment on Bichette’s already stellar offensive commonplace.

Unfortunately for Bichette, that pattern has come to an abrupt halt. Since June 1, Bichette has hit .296/.309/.457. That stat line is much from disastrous — notably for a shortstop — however it has slowed his momentum.

The offensive decline has been pushed by a strikeout price that has instantly climbed to a far larger price than we’ve seen from him recently.

At the identical time his stroll price has fallen to a minuscule 1.2 per cent. It’s robust to be an elite offensive participant whenever you strike out 20 instances for each stroll, which is what Bichette has executed since June 1.

Part of that story is swing choice. Even when he was rolling within the first two months of the season, he provided at 37.4 per cent of pitches outdoors the zone — effectively above the MLB common of 28.3 per cent. Over his final 38 video games that quantity has jumped to 45.3 per cent.

While that ultra-aggressive strategy explains the shortage of walks, Bichette has nonetheless managed a strong 80.4 per cent contact price throughout that span. Even although he’s swinging at worse pitches, that doesn’t essentially clarify his strikeout spike.

A greater clarification for that’s the decline in Bichette’s vaunted two-strike strategy. Here’s a comparability between how he fared in these counts within the first two months of 2023 in comparison with the final two.

Split	Called Strike%	Whiffs/Swing	Fouls/Swing	Balls in play/Swing
March 30 – May 30	1.3%	14.3%	46.9%	37.3%
June 1 – July 18	4.6%	23.8%	42.8%	33.3%

These numbers are a bit of worse throughout the board for Bichette with the rise in whiffs standing out essentially the most. Nothing in right here is excessive sufficient to warrant panic, however it’s intriguing that Bichette appears to be lacking totally different pitches in two-strike counts than he did throughout his scorching begin.

In the opening months of the season, Bichette was susceptible primarily in opposition to sliders and sweepers breaking away from him.

There isn’t sufficient proof to recommend that this would be the case for the remainder of the season, however it’ll bear monitoring within the weeks to come back.

None of what we’ve seen within the final couple of months is ample proof to recommend that Bichette is in for a tough finish to the season. Even along with his present struggles to keep up an inexpensive BB/Ok ratio, Bichette continues to be contributing to the Blue Jays’ offence.

Instead, it’s a sign that what the shortstop did on the finish of 2022 and the start of 2023 was extra of a scorching streak than a career-altering breakout. That could have all the time been the most definitely end result, however when a participant cuts his strikeouts so drastically over practically 400 plate appearances it’s onerous to not take discover.

The season-to-season consistency Bichette displayed coming into 2023 appears more likely to maintain as his present 134 wRC+ is consistent with final 12 months’s 129 mark. What he’s going to do for weeks, and even months at a time is anybody’s guess, although.