How 2023 balanced schedule could affect playoff races
Amongst all of the adjustments you’ll discover on the sector in 2023 — the pitch clock, the positioning ban, the bigger bases, the pickoff limits — there’s one other quietly significant one which may not be fairly so apparent for those who weren’t in search of it. For the primary time since Interleague Play arrived within the Majors in 1997, the schedule can be balanced. Every workforce will play the opposite 29 groups a minimum of as soon as yearly and likewise go to every metropolis a minimum of as soon as each different 12 months.
It’s meant to be fairer for the Wild Card race, and to forestall issues like “five fanbases still haven’t ever seen Shohei Ohtani come to town,” as is at the moment the case. Long-term, it’s clearly going to meet these objectives. But for 2023, there’s a extra fascinating query, significantly in the truth that groups can be taking part in 24 fewer video games in opposition to their very own divisions than they did earlier than, and that query is, “How will this affect the playoff races?”
Think concerning the Phillies, who acquired to feast on the Nationals (16-3) as they received the ultimate Wild Card slot by a single recreation. Think concerning the Guardians, who had been a mere .500 in opposition to successful groups but a large 58-36 in opposition to dropping groups on their method to successful the AL Central by 11 video games. Think concerning the Orioles, Blue Jays and Rays, who for many years have had practically 1 / 4 of their schedule coming in opposition to simply the Yankees and Red Sox. Who you play issues, and who you play in 2023 beneath the balanced schedule goes to be totally different than who you might need performed earlier than.
So: Who wins out right here? Let’s run the numbers.
What we did was to take the 2023 schedule breakdown, as outlined right here, and in contrast it to what the 2023 schedule would have been beneath the outdated guidelines, with extra in-division play and fewer intraleague play. (Under that format, Interleague Play opponents rotated in opposition to the opposite league’s divisions one per 12 months, so in 2023, it might have been NL East vs. AL Central, NL Central vs. AL West and NL West vs. AL East. That’s the what-would-have-been comparability we’ll use, not the 2022 schedule we simply noticed, as FanGraphs’s Dan Szymborski did in a great preliminary look final summer time. If you actually wish to see the large ugly grid of what our schedule comparability appears to be like like, examine that out right here.)
Knowing the distinction between who groups would have performed and as an alternative now can be taking part in — for instance, the White Sox would have performed their 4 AL Central rivals 19 instances apiece and nothing in any respect in opposition to the NL West; now they play within the division 13 instances apiece and choose up 15 video games in opposition to the NL West — it’s straightforward sufficient to take every workforce’s 2023 projected successful share from FanGraphs and whip up some energy of schedule numbers primarily based on who, and the way usually, you’re going to play versus what it might have been in any other case.
All of which supplies us these outcomes …
It is, as you’d count on, not a large quantity. Plus, it depends largely on groups taking part in to projected efficiency, which we all know received’t occur completely — although there’s typically a fairly sturdy relationship between projected outcomes and precise outcomes. But it would assist change the end result of a recreation or two right here and there, and that may very well be the distinction between entering into the playoffs or going house.
It’ll assist: The whole AL East and the complete AL West
It received’t matter a lot for: The AL Central
It’ll damage: No one, meaningfully
By this methodology, all 10 groups within the East and West will profit to the tune of between .015 and .030 factors of opponent energy of schedule. (The method to learn that’s like this: The Orioles would have had a .517 projected opponent energy of schedule, the toughest within the recreation. Now, they’ll have a .490 projected opponent energy of schedule, the ninth-easiest. That’s a +.027 enhance for them.)
It makes all of the sense on the earth that the AL East groups can be happy, as a result of it’s baseball’s hardest division, and now they get to play much less of each other. To illustrate that, take the Blue Jays, who get to slice off 24 video games in opposition to the East. They had been going to must play 4 in opposition to the Braves both means, and would have already been scheduled in opposition to the NL West. But now, these 24 video games that might have been in opposition to the beasts of the east now come in opposition to the weak NL Central and the 4 remaining NL East groups — two of which aren’t a lot good anyway.
It’s the identical within the AL West, which at the moment has 4 groups projected .500 or higher. Take away 24 video games in opposition to divisional rivals — that is particularly good for Oakland, which doesn’t get the good thing about taking part in itself — and substitute them with video games in opposition to the NL West and NL East (which, once more, is extraordinarily prime heavy), and see the profit.
But for the comparatively weak AL Central, it doesn’t look like it’ll matter a lot. That’s as a result of these 5 groups had already been scheduled to face the NL East in 2023, so these video games aren’t new, and as an alternative they’ll choose up video games in opposition to the equally weak NL Central and the NL West, which encompasses a considerably depleted (in comparison with earlier years) Dodgers squad and the very poorly projected Rockies. We mission these 5 groups with virtually no change in any respect.
The takeaway: It was already fairly exhausting to see the Central sending a workforce to the Wild Card, given the energy within the East and West, and this solely exacerbates that.
It’ll assist: No one, meaningfully
It received’t matter a lot for: The NL Central, the NL West
It’ll damage: The NL East
Interestingly, the other, although maybe that’s not so shocking as a result of Interleague Play goes from 12% of a workforce’s schedule to twenty-eight%, and each win for one workforce is a loss for an additional; this all has to stability out someway. The distinction right here is one among depth, as a result of whereas each leagues are considerably related in that the Central is the weakest division, the AL might need 5 good groups within the East and 4 within the West, whereas the underside halves of these divisions skinny out extra shortly within the NL.
(To that time, of the 11 groups projected by FanGraphs with the bottom projected successful share, seven are within the NL.)
The NL East advantages in an identical method to the AL East, although. Take the Mets, for instance. They would have performed 66 video games in opposition to the NL Central and West, and now they’re taking part in 64, so there’s little or no distinction there; similar for the 4 video games in opposition to their beforehand scheduled Interleague opponent, the Yankees. But as an alternative of taking part in 76 video games in their very own division, it’s now solely 52, and that’s considerably a wash, as a result of whereas they do get to keep away from the sturdy Braves and Phillies extra, in addition they lose the good thing about taking part in the weaker Marlins and Nationals as a lot — a pair of groups that New York received 27 of 38 video games in opposition to final season.
Those lacking 26 video games must go someplace. A dozen of them come in opposition to the AL East, the place Baltimore, Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto ought to all be aggressive or higher. Fifteen extra come in opposition to the AL West, the place 4 of the 5 golf equipment (all however Oakland) are projected to be .500 or higher groups. That sounds tougher.
In the NL Central, it’s virtually similar to the AL Central. It’s not a powerful division, they usually had been already going to play the AL West in 2023, so the commerce in its in-division video games for extra video games in opposition to the AL East (which is a nasty factor) and AL Central (which is an efficient factor), and it’s virtually one thing of a wash.
The distinction within the leagues we see is within the NL West, which doesn’t profit as a lot because the AL West would possibly. That’s partly as a result of it was already scheduled to face the tough AL East this 12 months, and so 24 of the in-division video games will now be in opposition to — and let’s quote ourselves right here — “the AL East (which is a bad thing) and AL Central (which is a good thing), and it’s almost something of a wash.” If it looks as if Arizona wins out right here, it’s barely in any respect, so only a +.003 projected enhance.
The takeaway: This would possibly really assist the Wild Card contenders within the Central and West, who had been rightfully observing a Mets/Braves/Phillies trio and questioning if two of the three Wild Card spots would already be spoken for, no matter who wins that division. The highway out of the East simply acquired barely tougher.
