HOF ballot update: 8 crucial questions as announcement nears

In 18 days, we’ll discover out who the Baseball Writers’ Association of America has elected for induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame this summer time, receiving the sport’s best particular person honor as legends already enshrined in Cooperstown look on. The announcement might be made stay on MLB Network at 6 p.m. ET on Jan. 23.

Something the general public didn’t have again when the primary class was elected in 1936 is a public poll tracker that offers us a way of who could eclipse the 75% threshold and get the decision to the Hall. Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and Co.’s Hall of Fame poll tracker, we will get a fairly good concept of which gamers are trending towards election.

Based on how the tracker appears to be like now, a number of questions come up as we get ever nearer to discovering out who will comprise the Class of 2024.

Voting percentages are as of Thursday night time.

Adrián Beltré seems to be a lock for election — how shut will he be to a unanimous choice?

With 3,166 hits, 477 dwelling runs and 5 Gold Glove Awards at third base, simply to call just a few of his credentials, Beltré seems to be on his option to election in his first 12 months on the poll. The query is: How shut will he be to a unanimous selection?

The solely candidate to be elected unanimously to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA was Mariano Rivera in 2019 — his title was checked on all 425 ballots submitted. While we all know Beltré received’t be a unanimous choice based mostly on info from the tracker, his title has been checked by 98.3% of the voters who’ve made their ballots public to this point.

Could Beltré end amongst the highest 10 all-time in Hall of Fame voting percentages? The closest anybody has been with out being voted in unanimously is Derek Jeter, who obtained 99.7% of the vote in 2020. Next on the listing is Ken Griffey Jr. who garnered 99.3%. They are adopted by Tom Seaver (98.8%), Nolan Ryan (98.8%), Cal Ripken Jr. (98.5%), Ty Cobb (98.2%), George Brett (98.2%), Hank Aaron (97.8%) and Tony Gwynn (97.6%).

Will Joe Mauer be elected on his first poll?

Somewhat surprisingly given pre-ballot expectations, Mauer is trending exceptionally properly on his first poll. The former Twins catcher/first baseman has obtained 81.5% of the vote on publicly revealed ballots. Will he end with the requisite 75% or extra of the whole vote when all of the ballots are accounted for?

Mauer’s credentials are actually robust — three batting titles, the 2009 American League MVP Award, six All-Star choices, 5 Silver Slugger Awards and three Gold Glove Awards behind the plate, to not point out a rating of seventh amongst catchers in Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system of analysis for Hall of Fame worthiness.

But whereas there appears to have been a sense that Mauer would in the future be elected, it was removed from a certainty that it will occur in his first 12 months of eligibility. So far, so good on that entrance — with practically a 3rd of the ballots tabulated within the unofficial tracker, it appears Mauer has an actual probability to make it to Cooperstown on his first attempt. And Jason Sardell, whose forecasts have confirmed to be very shut prior to now, initiatives he’ll end round 80%.

Is this the 12 months for Todd Helton and Billy Wagner, or will they’ve to attend?

These are two candidates who’ve had some hurdles to clear so as to get as shut as they’re now — Helton took a quantum leap to 72.2% of the vote final 12 months, and Wagner reached 68.1%.

Helton, after all, has had his candidacy harm by taking part in his dwelling video games at Coors Field for 17 seasons. Wagner has super price stats, however there have been questions over longevity and postseason struggles. Helton is at the moment monitoring at 82.4%, and Wagner is at 79.8%.

Things are extra pressing for Wagner, who has one remaining 12 months of eligibility on the BBWAA poll after this 12 months (candidates stay on the poll for a most of 10 years). Helton, in the meantime, is on his sixth poll.

Typically, ballots that aren’t revealed earlier than the Hall of Fame announcement are likely to decrease the chances for candidates like Helton and Wagner, so it appears it may come right down to the wire with each. According to Sardell, Wagner could come up properly brief this 12 months, at round 64%. He additionally means that Helton’s probabilities at being voted on this 12 months are “basically a coin flip.”

Is there any probability Gary Sheffield will get in on his last poll?

Sheffield has additionally been making vital progress, leaping from 13.6% in 2019 to 55% final 12 months. But it could be too little, too late for the slugger who hit 509 dwelling runs with a .907 OPS over a 22-year MLB profession. 

Despite 9 All-Star choices, 5 Silver Slugger Awards, a batting title and a World Series championship with the Marlins in 1997, Sheffield’s look within the Mitchell Report has harm his candidacy to the purpose the place it will be a stunner if he was elected on his last poll this 12 months.

So far, Sheffield has obtained 74.8% of the 119 publicly revealed ballots. That’s an encouraging quantity, however in previous years, the overall pattern has been for Sheffield’s assist amongst voters whose ballots are revealed after the Hall of Fame announcement to say no. 

Sardell’s evaluation has him ending within the mid-60s, which implies Sheffield’s Cooperstown probabilities could also be left to a future Era Committee.

How large of a rise in assist will Carlos Beltrán see?

Beltrán’s Hall of Fame credentials, on their very own, ought to make him a robust candidate for election to Cooperstown sometime. But when he was implicated within the Astros’ sign-stealing operation just a few years in the past, his candidacy took successful.

During his 20-year Major League profession, Beltrán additionally performed for the Royals, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees and Rangers. One of 5 gamers in AL/NL historical past with at the least 400 dwelling runs (435) and 300 steals (312) in his profession, he was the 1999 AL Rookie of the Year, a nine-time All-Star and a three-time Gold Glove Award winner in middle subject.

Beltrán additionally has one of many best postseason resumes in historical past — in 65 profession playoff video games, the switch-hitting slugger posted a 1.021 OPS with 16 homers and 11 steals. Beltrán’s 2004 postseason was one for the ages. He smashed eight homers with a 1.557 OPS for Houston.

In 2023, his first 12 months of eligibility on the Hall of Fame poll, Beltrán garnered 46.5% of the vote. That determine was in all probability suppressed by his involvement within the Astros scandal, however it was a robust begin nonetheless. He’s at the moment monitoring at 66.4%, and Sardell sees him crossing the 60-percent threshold this time round.

Will Andruw Jones maintain climbing towards election?

Jones is among the best defensive middle fielders of all time — solely Willie Mays (12) received extra Gold Glove Awards on the place than Jones’ 10. He was additionally a prolific offensive participant, belting 434 dwelling runs, together with an MLB-best 51 for the Braves in 2005. 

A prodigy in Atlanta’s farm system, Jones was taking part in within the postseason in his first 12 months with the Major League membership at age 19. In all, he hit 10 profession postseason homers, together with three in that 1996 marketing campaign, when he turned the youngest participant to homer within the playoffs (19 years, 177 days).

Despite his many achievements, it took a while for Jones’ Hall of Fame candidacy to achieve traction. In 2019, he was at 7.5%, however by ’23, he had reached 58.1%. So far on this, his seventh 12 months on the poll, Sardell’s mannequin suggests Jones’ assist could have plateaued at 58%, at the least for now. He’s at the moment monitoring at 67.2% with 31% of the ballots recognized.

If Jones isn’t elected by the writers even with a late-stage bump in assist, it could be resulting from him falling brief in some conventional classes like hits (below 2,000) and batting common (.254).

Will Chase Utley’s first poll set him up for election sooner or later?

In one other period, Utley’s profession numbers might need led to him being vulnerable to falling off the Hall of Fame poll completely in his first 12 months of eligibility (any candidate receiving below 5% of the vote is just not eligible on future BBWAA ballots).

But as we’ve seen with Helton, Wagner, Sheffield, Jones and others, the citizens has advanced each in composition and in utilization of superior metrics to guage candidates. Utley is monitoring at 42%, and Sardell has him at round 41% when all of the ballots are accounted for.

Will that kind of assist on his first poll set Utley up for future induction?

Utley was a six-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger Award winner at second base over a 16-year MLB profession. As far as accolades go, his credentials seem like missing. And so far as “black ink” bona fides (situations of main the league or the Majors in a statistical class), his rating is low (Utley led the NL with 131 runs scored in 2006, and led MLB in occasions hit by a pitch 3 times).

Nevertheless, Utley was one of many premier second basemen of his period. From 2005-10, he hit .298/.388/.523 with 162 dwelling runs and 90 steals whereas taking part in robust protection on the keystone place. Much of his worth, the truth is, got here from his defensive prowess. As a consequence, he produced 45.5 bWAR over that six-season span, second solely to Albert Pujols (52.1) amongst place gamers.

It’s laborious to say whether or not Utley will finally be elected, however you may do so much worse than choosing up 40-45% in your first 12 months on the poll.

Will David Wright keep away from a one-and-done poll look?

Over his first 10 seasons, it appeared Wright was on his option to Cooperstown. He hit .301/.382/.506 with 222 dwelling runs in that span, incomes seven All-Star choices, a pair of Gold Glove Awards and three top-10 finishes in NL MVP voting.

But then accidents struck him relentlessly and he was by no means the identical, in the end having to name it a profession at age 35 in 2018, following three seasons wherein he was barely on the sector.

While it’s unlikely he’ll attain Cooperstown, Wright does have a comp within the Hall of Fame already — Twins nice Kirby Puckett. Both had their careers reduce brief by damage, with Puckett taking part in in 198 extra video games than Wright. Puckett’s profession bWAR was 51.2, and Wright’s was 49.2. Puckett hit 207 homers with a profession 124 OPS+. Wright hit 242 homers with a profession 133 OPS+.

In the top, although, Wright might be preventing simply to remain on the poll in his first 12 months. So far, he’s gotten 5.9% of the vote, with Sardell’s projection inserting him round 7%. If Wright can handle to eke by this time, he’ll at the least have an opportunity to have his case additional examined within the years forward.