Here is why Soto is still projected as No. 1 hitter
At this level, Soto is a perennial All-Star and a feared hitter, however after what was perceived as a “down year” for him, with these latter two phrases being key, maybe the projection needs to be mentioned in additional element.
Here’s why Soto remains to be projected at No. 1 for 2023.
About that (not-so-)down 12 months
Let’s begin with the truth that the concept Soto’s 2022 wasn’t as much as snuff has rather a lot to do with the requirements he’s set for himself up to now in his younger profession. He had a 145 wRC+ — meaning he was 45% higher than MLB common, offensively. That determine ranked tenth amongst certified hitters, simply behind Yandy Díaz and Julio Rodríguez (146 wRC+), and forward of Mookie Betts (144). There had been 130 certified hitters final 12 months, for additional context.
This isn’t meant to gloss over extra conventional stats, after all. After getting into the 12 months with a profession .301 batting common and .550 slugging share, he hit .242 and slugged .452. But his anticipated stats, primarily based on high quality of contact, point out that the outcomes ought to have been higher. The “unlucky gap” between his anticipated batting common of .266 and the precise was tied for eighth-largest amongst hitters with a minimum of 350 batted balls. Similarly, the distinction between his anticipated slugging of .501 and the precise was sixth-largest. Neither of the anticipated numbers remains to be what we’ve come to anticipate from Soto, however they’re nearer.
That does get to the important thing drawback for Soto in 2022: As a hitter who takes selective swings, the contact he was making wasn’t doing what we’re used to seeing. He had a .249 BABIP, twelfth lowest in MLB, after by no means having a mark under .312 for a season. With a historical past like that, this may be accepted as an indicator of dangerous luck, because the anticipated stats indicate as effectively, however that isn’t the complete story.
There’s no query that a few of what led Soto’s stats to depreciate final season will be attributed to luck — which is our first clue that that is fixable, because it’s unlikely to final as such. But there’s extra to it than that.
Soto is infamous for his selectiveness on the plate, and that remained the case final season as he led certified hitters with the bottom swing fee for the second straight season. With so few swings, every that does happen turns into that rather more necessary by way of making optimum contact.
If we have a look at two indicators of contact, hard-hit fee and sweet-spot fee, we see how his contact might’ve been higher optimized, each by way of energy and arc. Soto’s 47.4% hard-hit fee was his lowest since his rookie 12 months in 2018 and his 28.5% sweet-spot fee was the bottom of his profession. He hit .478 and slugged .995 on laborious contact and .598 and 1.246, respectively, on sweet-spot contact. He simply wanted to do extra of every.
The good news is there’s no motive to consider {that a} younger, gifted hitter wouldn’t be capable of return to crushing the ball tougher and within the air, when he did so for 4 years prior.
Still a grasp of plate self-discipline
Hopefully, we’ve satisfied you that what could have gone “wrong” for Soto will be fastened — past what was out of his management, anyway. Further optimism for his outcomes transferring ahead: In some ways, he was nonetheless himself in 2022. Namely, his plate self-discipline.
He nonetheless led MLB in swing fee, as famous above, not letting any perceived struggles result in extra reckless swings. His chase fee went up 5 share factors from 2021 to 17.2%, and it nonetheless led the Majors. His 14.5% strikeout fee was effectively higher than MLB common and his 20.3% stroll fee led MLB.
Soto had extra walks than strikeouts for the third time in his younger profession. The solely different participant with even two such certified years by his age-23 season within the Wild Card period is Albert Pujols, with two. Juan Soto doing Juan Soto issues.
Not solely did his excellent plate self-discipline persist, it did so by the noise.
Track document at this younger age
The truth we’ve come to anticipate a lot of Soto can’t be ignored — it’s a part of the explanation his projections make sense. He’s simply 24 — which bodes effectively when projecting any participant — and already on a Hall of Fame observe.
He has a 157 profession OPS+, which is tied with Eddie Mathews for fifth highest by a participant’s age-23 season (min 2,000 PA). That trails solely Ted Williams (190), Ty Cobb (171), Mike Trout (169) and Pujols (165). Hall of Fame and soon-to-be Hall of Fame firm.
We talked about his MLB-leading 20.3% stroll fee earlier. It wasn’t the primary and even the second time that he walked in a minimum of 20% of his plate appearances. It was his third such certified season, tied for the fifth most all time. All time, and he’s but to play an MLB sport as a 24-year-old.
Only Williams (9), Babe Ruth (eight), Barry Bonds (seven) and Max Bishop (six) had extra certified seasons with a 20% stroll fee, and Soto is the one participant with three by his age-23 season.
Another factor about that stroll fee: It led MLB by rather a lot. The distinction between Soto’s 20.3% stroll fee and Aaron Judge and Max Muncy at 15.9% was the most important between certified Nos. 1 and a couple of in stroll fee in a season since 2004, when Bonds led at 37.6% and Todd Helton was second at 18.6%. Anytime you’re on a walks-related record with Bonds, you understand you towered over the competitors.
We gained’t know whether or not these projections had been on the right track till the season is full, however provided that what was atypical for Soto in 2022 is fixable and he was nonetheless the identical hitter who’s constructed a formidable observe document up to now, they actually appear believable.
If Soto does certainly lead all hitters in WAR, per FanGraphs, he’d be simply the second Padres participant to take action, becoming a member of Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2020 and ‘21.
Regardless of the way it goes, Soto needs to be a pleasure to look at but once more in 2023.
