Danny Jansen's importance to Blue Jays grows as bat keeps improving
While the Toronto Blue Jays haven’t skilled many nice surprises within the opening stretch of 2024, Danny Jansen’s offensive excellence definitely qualifies.
Jansen has a latest monitor document of manufacturing at a excessive stage on the plate — particularly for a participant who has rather a lot to supply defensively behind it — however his early-season numbers are nothing in need of spectacular.
The 29-year-old received a late begin to his 2024 marketing campaign due to a wrist damage, however he’s carried out at a famous person stage since his debut on April 16.
Shohei Ohtani is the one hitter within the majors with 50-plus plate appearances who has topped Jansen’s spectacular wRC+ (199) and slugging (.667) marks.
While he in all probability gained’t hold raking at his present clip, he appears to be like in management on the dish in a manner he’s by no means demonstrated earlier than. Jansen has flashed elite energy over brief stretches prior to now, however he’s by no means proven the type of plate self-discipline he’s exhibiting now.
Jansen’s plate self-discipline has by no means been a major problem for him, nevertheless it’s by no means regarded this good — and seems to be stemming from the catcher exhibiting unprecedented restraint in opposition to breaking pitches.
While he’s all the time produced comparatively nicely in opposition to sliders and curves, up to now in 2024 he’s been unimaginable to beat with them. So far this season his whiff charge on these pitches is a minuscule 5.6 per cent, a ludicrously low quantity even in a small pattern. In his earlier 5 seasons that mark has by no means dropped beneath 20 per cent.
The finest rationalization for that’s he’s completed an incredible job shedding pitchers’ pitches. Of the 46 breaking balls he’s seen exterior the zone this 12 months, Jansen has solely swung at 4 of them — and a type of swings resulted in a double.
It’s a microtrend, however one that provides a way of simply how locked in Jansen is now, and it’s not tough to check the catcher remaining extraordinarily harmful if he can retain even just a little little bit of the self-discipline positive aspects he’s proven within the early going.
FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection system predicts he’ll produce a 137 wRC+ from right here on out, an elite quantity that may’ve ranked twelfth amongst all certified hitters in 2023. The lowest projection Jansen will get from FanGraphs’ six projection fashions is 117, which continues to be wonderful
It could be time to start out conceiving of Jansen as much less of a tandem catcher and extra of a respectable middle-of-the-order bat. Unfortunately for the veteran — and the Blue Jays — there’s a “when healthy” caveat hooked up to that assertion due to his many journeys to the injured checklist in latest seasons.
Even so, he’s wanting an increasing number of like a man able to delivering high-level offence and energy to a crew that lacks each whose different possibility at catcher has seen his extra-base potential wane considerably in latest seasons.
In the fast time period, Jansen is a vital participant for the Blue Jays who deserves to get as many at-bats because the crew can feed him due to his excellent manufacturing, promising projections, and talent to assist paper over a number of the membership’s present weaknesses.
Looking just a little bit additional down the highway, he’s a fully fascinating determine for the franchise as a result of reality he’s an unrestricted free agent following the 2024 season.
Not so way back, essentially the most logical path for Jansen appeared comparatively clear.
When Alejandro Kirk was acting at an all-star stage, the very fact he was youthful and below crew management longer than Jansen made him seem to be the long-term resolution. Meanwhile, it felt truthful to presume the previous Sixteenth-round choose would search greener pastures and extra taking part in time in free company whereas the Blue Jays received a extra conventional backup for Kirk and allotted sources elsewhere.
That may all nonetheless come to go, however the state of affairs has been sophisticated by Kirk’s offensive decline and the chance Jansen is discovering a brand new gear. If that makes the Blue Jays wish to hold the man who’s been their finest place participant on a per-game foundation this 12 months, it’s tough to give you an affordable contract.
Since constructing a brand new offensive id round a power-first method in 2021, Jansen has hit .242/.323/.499 whereas contributing robust work behind the dish. In simply 806 plate appearances he’s hit 46 house runs and produced 7.1 fWAR. FanGraphs estimates the financial worth of these efforts at $56.4 million.
At the identical time, Jansen’s relative lack of taking part in time is extra of a bug than a characteristic. It’s powerful to know learn how to worth a participant with an in depth damage historical past coming into their 30s and taking part in the sport’s most physically-demanding place.
Even although nobody disputes catchers’ significance, groups have been reluctant to decide to them long-term until they’re superstars. Just 10 backstops are presently taking part in on contracts of three years or longer. Only eight make $10 million or extra per season. Jansen is worthy of a dedication, and getting worthier by the day, however Toronto may stay reluctant to supply one.
While Kirk has regressed offensively, he’s one of many sport’s finest framers and a top-tier pitch blocker as nicely. He doesn’t have to supply a lot with the bat to be a succesful starter, and having him relegated to a pure backup whereas Jansen returning as a standard No. 1 possibility on a large contract could be a little bit of a waste. At that time a Kirk commerce would come into play, however the 25-year-old makes for an odd commerce asset.
That’s additionally true of Jansen contemplating the juxtaposition between his stellar manufacturing and sturdiness worries and could possibly be extra of a urgent concern.
If Toronto turns into a mid-season vendor, it will make sense to flip him. The Blue Jays’ catcher surplus has resulted in loads of commerce hypothesis — and the Daulton Varsho deal — lately, and Jansen has not often appeared like the suitable participant to maneuver as a result of different groups could be scared off by his damage historical past or skeptical of his mid-career energy surge.
Now issues could possibly be altering.
Although catcher trades are inclined to occur extra within the low season as a result of issue of studying a pitching employees on the fly, the plausibility of Jansen carrying important commerce worth in some unspecified time in the future in 2024 is creeping up. If his efficiency stays in step with his projections, he may turn out to be a big-ticket energy bat able to sliding right into a contending crew’s DH spot, not only a catcher.
He may nonetheless present essentially the most worth behind the plate, however there’s a giant distinction between a slightly-above common hitter who performs a single place — irrespective of how worthwhile that spot is — and a man whose manufacturing instructions that he finds his manner into the order. Jansen is presently trending in direction of being seen because the latter.
For now, the Jansen state of affairs is easy. At a time when a number of the Blue Jays’ high hitters are underachieving, they’re lucky that he’s stepping up. Add in Kirk’s tough offensive begin to 2024 and Jansen has been a treatment for lots of what ails the Blue Jays since returning to the lineup, or not less than somebody who’s a part of the answer not the issue.
A number of steps down the highway, issues are going to get extra sophisticated. Jansen is concurrently changing into a greater extension and commerce candidate at a time when the Blue Jays have credible causes to be gun shy about selecting both path — notably if they’re in rivalry when the commerce deadline rolls round.
Jansen is an incredible homegrown player-development story and an especially worthwhile two-way contributor. Those traits virtually all the time lead to extension if the participant in query is open to it, however the catcher’s future continues to be unsure and the higher he performs the cloudier it appears to get.
