Catching Conundrum: Weighing pros and cons of trading each Blue Jays backstop

The Toronto Blue Jays low season has already included one high-stakes resolution within the type of the Teoscar Hernandez commerce, however maybe the most important selection the group will grapple with is how one can deal with its catcher state of affairs.

While depth is vital over an 162-game season, retaining Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno would characterize a failure to adequately allocate the membership’s sources.

It’s exceedingly seemingly that a type of gamers will likely be moved, and deciding who goes will play a vital position in shaping the Blue Jays’ roster development in 2023 and past. To say the state of affairs is difficult is an understatement, since you might make an argument for any of the three backstops being the most suitable choice for Toronto within the close to time period — they usually all have various commerce values.

Here’s a rundown of the main execs and cons of transferring every of the Blue Jays’ starting-calibre catchers.

Danny Jansen

The case for retaining him: The Blue Jays are firmly in win-now mode, and Jansen may simply be the most effective backstop they’ve bought.

Since an influence breakout that started after a return from the IL on Aug. 31, 2021, the 27-year-old has hit .274/.348/.559, good for a 153 wRC+.

Due to accidents and the rise of Kirk final yr these numbers come from a 313 plate look pattern, however of the 316 hitters with no less than 300 journeys to the plate throughout that point Jansen’s wRC+ ranks eighth, immediately between Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper.

On a per-game foundation, it’s not a stretch to say he’s been the group’s simplest place participant.

If Jansen is something near the hitter he’s been these days, transferring him can be a mistake. That kind of offensive manufacturing mixed with a defensive pedigree that earned him a 2019 Gold Glove finalist nod is sort of unimaginable to search out.

MLBTR initiatives him to earn $3.7 million in arbitration this yr, which implies he’s loads inexpensive and there’s a ceiling on how a lot he can earn in 2024 with that as a baseline.

Because of his latest sturdiness points — and the actual fact he solely has two extra years of group management left — his commerce worth can be the bottom of the three catchers.

The case for transferring him: Although Jansen’s latest offensive manufacturing is staggering, it appears truthful to imagine that he’ll regress to some extent within the subsequent two years. We don’t have many 2023 projections but, however Steamer pegs him for a 120 wRC+ in 2023, which is superb — particularly for a catcher — however not dominant.

If the Blue Jays might discover a commerce accomplice really shopping for into his latest manufacturing with the bat he’d characterize one thing of a sell-high alternative.

Jansen has additionally made repeated journeys to the IL during the last two seasons and his profession excessive in plate appearances is 384. He wouldn’t be requested to hold a full load if he stays, but it surely’s price questioning if the damage and tear of baseball’s most bodily demanding place will proceed to be a problem for him.

Moving Jansen would additionally permit the Blue Jays to show the place over to the mix of Kirk and Moreno — a tandem with complementary strengths that may put Toronto in “set it and forget it” mode on the place for no less than 4 years.

Alejandro Kirk

The case for retaining him: Kirk most likely has the best ground of any of those catchers. He’s now produced a 124 wRC+ over 755 MLB plate appearances and final season his improved framing, blocking and throwing utterly overhauled assumptions about his defensive limitations.

He simply turned 24, he’s already began in an All-Star Game and he isn’t even arbitration-eligible but. Most gamers who match that description are seen as foundational gamers, particularly in the event that they play a premium place.

He additionally matches properly with no matter different catcher the Blue Jays determine to maintain as his bat is so sturdy he profiles as an above-average DH. Although final season felt like one thing of an offensive breakout for him, it doesn’t appear like his ceiling.

Kirk’s energy fell off in 2022 to below-league-average ranges and it appears truthful to foretell a bounceback primarily based on his earlier manufacturing.

For that purpose, Steamer is projecting a 142 wRC+ from Kirk subsequent yr in anticipation of his ISO bouncing again as much as .183.

For reference, since 2000 solely 4 catchers have had a wRC+ of 142 or extra in a season with no less than 500 PA: Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, Mike Piazza and Jorge Posada.

The case for transferring him: Kirk has extraordinary commerce worth for all the causes that he’s price retaining.

Catchers along with his latest manufacturing and room for development don’t grow to be obtainable too typically, and the haul the Blue Jays might get in return from him would mirror that.

If Toronto is apprehensive that his unorthodox physique form will end in harm points down the highway — or they’re reluctant to tie up the variety of DH at-bats he’s prone to command in a single participant — that is the right time to maneuver him whereas his worth is excessive.

Should the Blue Jays see Moreno as the long run on the place, an association the place he shares time with Jansen for the following two years whereas slowly taking up the job could be an interesting blueprint.

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Gabriel Moreno

The case for retaining him: Moreno has repeatedly appeared on the prime of assorted prospect lists, and there’s each purpose to consider he generally is a franchise catcher.

His athleticism is uncommon for the place, his defensive instruments are elite and his bat-to-ball potential is excellent. There’s a reasonably good likelihood that he’s in the end the most effective of the three, he prices the least, and he’s underneath group management for the longest.

Although he skilled a considerably regarding energy outage final season, his minor-league monitor report suggests there’s thump in his bat, even when it’s extra gap-to-gap energy.

He additionally has just a little little bit of positional versatility, which can grow to be increasingly interesting if his offence rises to a degree the place his bat is required within the lineup as a lot as humanly potential.

Prospects nearly as good as Moreno come round as soon as a decade, if that, for many franchises.

The case for transferring him: With simply 73 plate appearances underneath his belt on the MLB degree, Moreno continues to be a prospect. Even the most effective prospects can bust.

It’s potential his energy by no means materializes on the highest degree and he turns into an excellent defensive catcher who’s a slap hitter that doesn’t stroll sufficient. That isn’t the probably consequence, but it surely’s definitely on the desk.

While he has the bottom ground of this group by advantage of his lack of MLB expertise, he additionally may need probably the most commerce worth — no less than to some groups. There will likely be golf equipment who worth him above Kirk as a result of they’re cautious of Kirk’s long-term sturdiness however in love with Moreno’s all-around talent set.

The alternative to amass a prospect of his calibre not often comes round, and he could possibly be the centrepiece of a deal for a star-level MLB participant. If the Blue Jays pulled the set off on a commerce like that, they’d nonetheless be capable to convey again a duo of catchers that produced 7.3 fWAR final season.

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