Can Trea’s speed defy Father Time?

Trea Turner is getting older, too, as all of us do; he’ll be 30 in June. But in contrast to most everybody else, he’s not getting slower, not but. After components of eight seasons within the Majors, Turner is strictly the place he was when he broke in again in 2015: Faster than 99 % of the remainder of baseball. Since a lot of his free agent case depends on his elite pace, what this implies going ahead for him goes to be essential as groups put together their gives.

So: What does this imply for him?

Obviously, and we should start right here, as a result of Turner has had elite pace for the reason that day he arrived, actually. You already know this, so we don’t must spend a substantial amount of time to persuade you of it, however what he’s carried out is so spectacular that it’s price being clear on. There’s eight years of dash pace information from Statcast, and Turner has been one of many seven quickest gamers in baseball all eight occasions. He was quick eight years in the past. He’s quick now.

Turner’s pace rankings, 2015-2022

It’s that consistency that stands out right here. For instance, Minnesota’s Byron Buxton was as quick in 2015, and has misplaced solely a bit of of that pace alongside the way in which, however he’s been damage so steadily that he’s taken simply 57% of the plate appearances Turner has.

Many of the opposite prime speedsters from the early years right here – Eric Young Jr., Adalberto Mondesi, Delino DeShields, for instance – have both left the game or are hanging on as bit gamers. Yet Turner endures.

A greater strategy to clarify it, maybe, is that since 2015, Turner has hit the elite 30 ft/sec threshold 724 occasions, the place as second place has carried out so simply 448 occasions. It’s the pace, certain. But it’s constant pace, and the supply to place it to make use of that stands out right here.

It’s that constant capacity to indicate elite pace that runs into direct battle with the truth that …

… Turner is human, and people get slower as they become older.

We now have these eight years of dash pace information, so we should always be capable of discover some traits, after which see by how a lot Turner is bucking them. So let’s begin at first: Do gamers nonetheless get slower as they age, now that we’re almost a decade into this? Well, yeah. By lots. It’s under no circumstances troublesome to see. You may ski down this slope.

We’re speaking 4 ft per second from the excessive finish right here to the low finish, and if that does not sound like a lot, understand that the typical home-to-first run takes about 4.4 seconds, and rapidly this provides as much as fairly main variations.

The 20-year-olds, at the least those that performed sufficient to qualify for a seasonal leaderboard, averaged 28.5 ft/sec, effectively above the Major League common of 27, and by far the quickest right here. (We’ll admit, there may be some bias right here within the sense that solely these 20-year-olds ok to qualify are accounted for right here, and as a result of it’s fairly uncommon for a catcher to be up that early.) That choose group contains speedsters resembling Fernando Tatis Jr. (29.3 ft/sec in 2020), but additionally slower runners resembling Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26.3 ft/sec in 2019).

Then it declines, steadily, till round 28 years previous, when it’s extra like league common, slowly declining till round 37, when it falls off a cliff, leaving principally DH sorts or backup catchers.

To put some names to the thought, let’s cherry-pick just a few examples of gamers who had been A) just like Turner’s age in 2016, B) had above-average pace to start out with, and C) are nonetheless lively right now. Look at what occurred, turning the uncooked dash pace numbers into percentile ranks, with 100 being “best in baseball.” Our group contains Tim Anderson, Kris Bryant, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Mookie Betts and Marcell Ozuna.

Turner has remained elite, however what occurred to the remainder? Age, to some extent, but additionally accidents. Anderson has had quite a lot of groin, hamstring, and ankle troubles. Bryant suffered again and foot issues in 2022, although he’d begun to sluggish earlier than that. Bregman has gone from glorious pace to poor, maybe partially to quad and hamstring points. On and on it goes: Correa has had again hassle, Betts hip issues, and Ozuna has declined from a playable middle fielder to a strictly DH position, although his accidents had been principally to his arms and fingers.

Turner did as soon as break his wrist when he was hit by a pitch, and a finger in 2019 on a bunt try, however his solely decrease physique damage was a minor hamstring pull manner again within the first month of 2017. He’s largely prevented the type of speed-sapping accidents a lot of his friends have suffered.

Of course, there are examples on the contrary, too, since we simply selected just a few huge names for instance the type of issues that are likely to occur over time. In the opposite course, Mike Trout, Marcus Semien, and George Springer are amongst those that are nonetheless about as quick in 2022 as they had been in 2016. Again: It’s not one-size-fits-all. The general pattern, although, is troublesome to refute. Father Time at all times wins, ultimately.

So Turner hasn’t but began to sluggish, that’s clear. But he’ll in some unspecified time in the future, absolutely, and people traits that we spotlighted above apply to the Major Leagues as a complete, not somebody who begins from such lofty heights as Turner had. What about simply these gamers, the true speedsters? After all, the non-catchers in our pace record have, as a gaggle, declined by about 0.7% per season from age 30 to age 35. If Turner did the identical, then at age 35, he’d have a 28.5 ft/sec dash pace, which might be 82nd percentile this 12 months – or mainly Trevor Story. If not elite, that will nonetheless be glorious.

We’re over 4,300 certified seasons, which is each “quite a bit” and “not really enough,” since clearly we will’t inform you something in regards to the careers of Rickey Henderson or Juan Pierre and even the sooner components of the careers of Jose Altuve or Andrew McCutchen.

But that doesn’t go away us with out choices. Let’s attempt to take a look at what we’ve bought in two alternative ways.

A) What occurred to different latest quick gamers at Turner’s age?

For instance: Anthony Rizzo has slowed down, however a soon-to-be 33-year-old first baseman who was by no means that quick within the first place isn’t precisely an excellent comparable right here. We want speedsters.

In the primary 5 years (2015-19) of pace monitoring, we seemed for gamers who averaged 29/ft sec or above of their age-29 season, as Turner simply did. (While 29 ft/sec just isn’t 30, it’s nonetheless excellent.)

We discovered 15. A handful of these gamers didn’t have a lot profession left, attributable to problems with damage or efficiency, so clearly, there’s a range bias right here. Seven of them, nonetheless, had been nonetheless lively in 2022, taking part in from ages 32 to 36. Was the pace nonetheless there?

The reply: A convincing sure, or at the least sufficient of it. In 2022, right here’s how these seven runners carried out.

It doesn’t imply they retained all of their pace, particularly the latter two, who every have proven appreciable pace declines from their once-elite glory days. (Cain is now possible retired.) But if not elite, then at the least nobody fell even to common pace, a lot much less below-average. That’s an excellent signal for Turner.

B) What about gamers growing old into their late 30s?

Turner’s subsequent deal is prone to take him to age 35 and past, and never all the gamers we simply talked about have made it to that age but. Do we now have proof of anybody at that age or older retaining elite pace, even when all the info we now have to go on is the top of their profession?

It is, for essentially the most half, grim, stuffed with examples like Alex Rodriguez going from stealing 46 bases as a 22-year-old shortstop to one of many slowest gamers within the recreation as a 40-year-old designated hitter.

But there are good outcomes, too. We have just a few hundred examples of pace information from age 35 or past, and these 5 gamers – thus far, as McCutchen is prone to be a part of this group subsequent 12 months – have had a number of seasons of above-average pace (28 ft/sec) from that time on.

If we decrease the brink to only common pace (27 ft/sec), then 11 gamers have carried out it.

Again, if not essentially elite pace at that age, then good-enough pace continues to be clearly inside attain. (Davis, for his half, did retain elite pace into his age-38 season.) It’s doable, is the purpose.

Turner received’t be this quick ceaselessly, as a result of nobody could be. But barring main damage, which he’s managed to keep away from up to now, there’s little fear about his pace exhibiting worrisome decline over the following a number of years. Given the lofty heights he’s ranging from, even a typical decline would nonetheless go away him being fairly quick in his mid-30s, and that’s past any affordable expectation his subsequent group may need. Speed may not age effectively, however pace doesn’t normally begin this elite, both.