Blue Jays Bullpen Breakdown: Internal and external additions Toronto can consider

Yesterday, we checked out the place the Blue Jays bullpen presently stands — the high-leverage locks, the middle-inning situational choices, and the depth relievers with major-league expertise.

Today, we’ll get into among the pitchers inside the group who’ve but to make their big-league debuts however may pitch their manner into roles this season. Plus, among the relievers obtainable on the open market that the Blue Jays may nonetheless contemplate as spring coaching nears — all the way in which from the high-end choices to the bounce-back candidates.

40-man prospects

Yosver Zulueta, Hagen Danner

Zulueta — added to the 40-man roster final month to defend him from the Rule 5 draft — might need made his MLB debut in late 2022 if not for proper knee irritation and shoulder soreness that developed in early August and sidelined him for a month. Instead, the 24-year-old’s season culminated at triple-A, his fourth minor-league stage of the marketing campaign. Through all of it, Zulueta pitched to a 3.72 ERA in 21 appearances — 12 as a starter, 9 in aid — whereas putting out 33.9 per cent of the batters he confronted.

With a well-rounded arsenal together with a high-90s fastball, plus slider, fringy changeup, and massive curveball, Zulueta has all of the instruments to start out and we all know the Blue Jays choose to exhaust that chance earlier than shifting a prospect to a everlasting bullpen position. That’s why it’s possible Zulueta begins 2023 within the Buffalo Bisons rotation. But he could possibly be a big-league aid possibility within the season’s second half as his innings complete climbs. Possibly even sooner if he flounders as a starter or Toronto’s bullpen circumstances flip dire.

Danner, in the meantime, was added to the 40-man roster final low season and started 2022 closing video games at double-A. But he was shut down with an elbow harm in late-April and sat out the rest of the season, an unlucky consequence for the transformed catcher who’s now mixing an upper-90s fastball with a heavy slider from the mound.

Finally wholesome once more this October, the Blue Jays despatched Danner to the Arizona Fall League the place he labored to a 3.52 ERA over 7.2 innings, putting out eight whereas strolling one. The 24-year-old will begin his 2023 within the excessive minors, however with sturdy performances and a big-league want arising he could possibly be making his MLB debut earlier than lengthy.

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Non 40-man prospects

Adrian Hernandez, Brandon Eisert, Hayden Juenger

We’ll see if Hernandez continues to be within the Blue Jays group by this time subsequent week, because the 22-year-old is a candidate to be taken within the Rule 5 draft coming off a 2022 season that noticed him work to a 4.22 ERA with a 33.3 per cent strikeout charge throughout 4 ranges.

That ERA’s a little bit misleading, as 9 of the 20 earned runs Hernandez allowed came visiting a six-outing span in September after he returned from a mid-season bout of shoulder soreness. Prior to the harm, the right-hander pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 36.6 per cent strikeout charge and was trending in direction of a possibility to check himself on the subsequent stage within the Blue Jays bullpen.

Hernandez’s screwball changeup is undoubtedly major-league prepared, however there’s some query as as to if his low-90s fastball will play in opposition to the world’s finest hitters. Still, it’d be a no-risk wager for a rebuilding membership to take an opportunity on him within the Rule 5 draft and discover out.

If he stays with the Blue Jays, Hernandez will start 2023 within the Bisons bullpen — and Eisert might be there, too, coming off an under-appreciated 2022 wherein he posted a 3.41 ERA with a 31 per cent strikeout charge over 60.2 triple-A innings.

Eisert doesn’t have huge velocity however creates loads of deception with a short-armed, crossfire supply that helps the left-hander earn swinging strikes with a four-pitch combine. His stuff gained’t leap off a Baseball Savant web page, however Eisert’s earned outcomes at each minor-league stage he’s touched, can work two innings at a time, and could possibly be playable out of a big-league bullpen in a lower-leverage, middle-inning capability.

There’s additionally Juenger, a 2021 draftee who’s been quickly working his manner up the Blue Jays system in a multi-inning aid position. Leaning closely on a mid-90s fastball popping out of a three-quarters arm slot, Juenger put up a 3.76 ERA over 88.2 innings break up between double- and triple-A final season with a 27.7 per cent strikeout charge. Like Eisert, Juenger’s utility to a big-league bullpen is probably going extra in direction of the center of video games than late, and even as an opener.

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High-end free agent choices

Taylor Rogers, Chris Martin, Matt Moore, Trevor Williams

On the floor, it seems unlikely the Blue Jays — already projected to run a franchise-record payroll in 2023 — will store on this premium aisle of the free agent market contemplating the workforce’s different apparent areas of want. Toronto may make a extra significant impression to its win expectancy by deploying its remaining price range in direction of a free-agent starter, outfielder, or each. And the membership’s entrance workplace has sometimes been reticent to spend huge on high-leverage aid as is.

But what if the Blue Jays fill their holes within the rotation and outfield through commerce? In that state of affairs, there could possibly be some extra price range to decide to one of many higher-end free-agent relievers obtainable. The Erik Swanson addition can’t shut the Blue Jays off from persevering with to enhance the again finish of their bullpen. Depth is crucial when constructing a aid corps and there’s a powerful case to be made that the Blue Jays didn’t add sufficient of it popping out of final winter’s lockout.

To that finish, Rogers, that includes a heavy, mid-90s sinker and a frisbee slider that breaks three inches greater than common, could be a superb left-handed complement to Toronto’s present steady of late-inning choices (For extra on why Rogers is a powerful bounce-back candidate coming off a down 12 months, see our free company pitching preview). And Martin, who’s combined a good 26.5 per cent strikeout charge with an absurd 2.8 per cent stroll charge since getting back from an NPB stint in 2018, would add as a lot dependability as you will discover at an inherently risky place.

Meanwhile, the right-handed Williams and left-handed Moore are transformed starters with first rate stuff who may slot in middle-inning bulk roles. Listing them as higher-end choices is a little bit of a stretch, however pickings are slim on this winter’s aid market, which is why you noticed a slew of names — Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, Rafael Montero — come off the board early.

Veteran, name-brand free agent choices with query marks

Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton

A signing from this broadly recognizable group could be a boon for internet site visitors of shops that cowl the workforce however doubtlessly a bane for the Blue Jays bullpen itself.

Jansen is probably going probably the most reliable of the bunch, as he’s adjusted his pitch-mix in his mid-30s to fight declining uncooked stuff, permitting him to proceed creeping up MLB’s all-time saves leaderboard (Jansen presently resides eighth with 391). The 35-year-old’s nonetheless serviceable if now not dominant, coming off a 3.38-ERA season as Atlanta’s nearer. But a lot of his peripherals — Jansen set a career-high hard-hit charge and career-low whiff charge in 2022 — have been creeping within the flawed path for a while and the late-career drop-off for relievers might be sudden. Jansen will receives a commission like a more in-depth this winter — however there’s purpose to marvel how for much longer he can preserve performing like one.

Kimbrel — three saves forward of Jansen in seventh on the all-time leaderboard — has been adrift for the higher a part of 4 seasons and was most not too long ago left off the Los Angeles Dodgers’ post-season roster. He may return to type if he can reverse his downward velocity pattern and discover a strategy to get hitters to respect his fastball once more. But how usually does that occur in a pitcher’s age-35 season? There actually could possibly be upside in Kimbrel on a low-cost, one-year deal. But as quickly because the bidding nears $10-million for 2023, the chance begins to outweigh the potential for reward.

Chapman’s been a problematic participant all through his profession and remained constant in 2022, lacking time in direction of the tip of the common season as a consequence of a leg an infection ensuing from tattoo problems earlier than being left off the New York Yankees’ post-season roster after skipping a membership exercise. We may get into the declining fastball velocity, the waning management and command, the very fact he was a web detrimental on the Yankees final season with a -0.2 fWAR. But for a workforce that preaches the significance of tradition and character such because the Blue Jays, the dialogue possible doesn’t even get that far.

Britton clearly wasn’t proper upon his return from Tommy John surgical procedure this September, strolling six of the 9 batters he confronted whereas throwing a 92.6-m.p.h. fastball — a number of clicks down from the mid-90s warmth he featured in his prime. There could be zero danger in seeing if Britton can recapture his type on a minor-league deal. He was one in every of baseball’s finest relievers from 2014 by 2020, in spite of everything, pitching to a 1.84 ERA over 369 appearances. But there could be a metric ton of danger in betting on post-surgery Britton with a assured contract, notably contemplating how priceless 40-man roster spots have turn out to be for the Blue Jays.

Middle-tier free agent choices

Andrew Chafin, Carlos Estevez, Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson, Matt Strahm

All of the above could possibly be turnkey late-inning choices for the Blue Jays in the event that they select to insert one other confirmed veteran right into a set-up position alongside Anthony Bass, Erik Swanson and Yimi Garcia. But free agent costs have been excessive normally this winter and the going charge for any of those names possible begins someplace round $8-million for one season. And in some circumstances, it may even require a two-year dedication.

It’s truthful to marvel if the Blue Jays would see the worth in that sort of deal for a reliever who would possibly return 1.5 WAR in a best-case state of affairs. But there are low season scripts that might see the Blue Jays tackle their different roster wants through commerce and have some payroll left over for this sort of luxurious. And if the value on any of the above drops, the Blue Jays may examine in and search for a discount.

Estevez is especially attention-grabbing coming off a six-season run with the Colorado Rockies that produced a pedestrian-looking 4.59 ERA over 302 innings. What’s not so pedestrian is his stuff. The right-hander throws an upper-90s fastball with a tough slider and changeup that must be getting extra swing-and-miss than they do. His arsenal is begging for a progressive franchise with a intelligent pitching division to assist him attain new heights.

Strahm could possibly be an enchanting developmental case, as effectively. The left-hander throws a mid-90s fastball from an uncommon arm slot that carries almost 5 inches greater than a league-average heater. It’s an uncomfortable search for a hitter up within the zone. And he has a tough slider, high-spin curveball and fading changeup to throw off of it — a deep arsenal of secondaries he’s been unable to maximise over his first seven big-league seasons. Walks and sturdiness have been points for Strahm at instances all through his profession. But there’s a ton right here for analysts and pitching coaches to work with.

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Lower-tier freeagent choices

Brad Boxberger, Miguel Castro, Shintaro Fujinami, Michael Fulmer, Mychal Givens, Chad Green, Luke Jackson, Pierce Johnson, Tommy Kahnle, Corey Knebel, Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal, Drew Rucinski, Vince Velasquez

Here’s the place the Blue Jays may discover some worth. All of those gamers have apparent warts — inconsistent efficiency, harm histories, and so forth. But that might decrease their costs into the $3-5 million vary on a one-year deal. That’s a possible discount when you can establish the pitcher primed for both optimistic regression or a breakout. Here are just a few the Blue Jays may contemplate.

Trevor May

The first half of May’s 2022 was disastrous, as he allowed runs in 5 of his first eight outings earlier than hitting the IL in May with triceps irritation that was in the end tied to a stress response in his humerus. But upon his return three months later, May rattled off a powerful, 18-appearance stretch to complete the season, pitching to a 3.24 ERA with wonderful strikeout (35.7 per cent) and stroll (7.7) charges. May’s velocity additionally ticked up when he returned from the IL, as he averaged 96-m.p.h. on his fastball with a depraved changeup that earned a whiff almost half the time. Those are respectable weapons that make May a powerful bounce-back candidate offered his arm troubles are actually behind him.

Pierce Johnson

Questions about Johnson’s well being abound after the right-hander missed many of the 2022 season as a consequence of proper forearm tendinitis. But when wholesome, there’s no questioning the effectiveness of his curveball, which includes a sky-high spin charge, generates a whiff almost a 3rd of the time, and graded as MLB’s fourth-best hook in 2021 by Baseball Savant’s Run Value metric. Johnson’s posted 31 per cent or larger strikeout charges every of the final three seasons and will present loads of worth if issues about his arm well being submarine his market.

Shintaro Fujinami

Fujinami, posted this week by the Hanshin Tigers, has flashed big-time stuff all through his decade-long NPB profession, reaching triple digits on the energetic fastball he enhances with a splitter and slider. But he’s additionally demonstrated excessive volatility, operating double-digit stroll charges in a number of seasons and spending his previous few campaigns bouncing between Japan’s equivalents of the minor- and major-leagues as a consequence of inconsistent efficiency. The 28-year-old’s hung out as each a starter and reliever, nevertheless it’s not onerous to dream of what his large velocity may appear to be popping out of an MLB bullpen. That is, if a workforce may help him reign in his overpowering stuff and discover the zone extra constantly.

Tommy Kahnle

Kahnle pitched solely 5 instances between the tip of 2019 and the summer time of 2022, as a sequence of arm points — Tommy John surgical procedure, forearm irritation, a bone bruise in his elbow — derailed the once-dominant set-up man’s profession. But in 12 appearances with the Dodgers this September and October, Kahnle regarded like himself once more, averaging 95.6-m.p.h. together with his fastball and flashing a 90-m.p.h. changeup with extra inches of drop than the one he threw previous to surgical procedure. Considering his in depth harm historical past, Kahnle must be a comparatively cheap signing this winter. And if he’s wholesome once more — huge if — he may return a ton of worth on a one-year deal.

Drew Rucinski

After struggling in a sequence of stints with 5 completely different MLB organizations, Rucinski took his providers to KBO’s NC Dinos in 2019 and unlocked his potential. He’s pitched to a 3.06 ERA over the 4 seasons since, making at the very least 30 begins in every of them whereas operating groundball charges within the mid-60s. It’s clearly one factor to try this in Korea and one other to do it in MLB. But if the 33-year-old can replicate one thing near these groundball charges in opposition to North American competitors, he may deliver loads of worth in a swingman position.

Chad Green

After present process Tommy John surgical procedure in June, Green possible gained’t be wholesome till the second half of 2023. But he pitched to a 3.18 ERA with a 30.8 per cent strikeout charge over his three seasons previous to the operation, pounding the zone with a high-spin, mid-90s heater and racking up swinging strikes together with his curveball. The Blue Jays may get artistic and supply Green a back-loaded, incentive-laden, two-year deal, primarily signing up for no matter Green can present on a budget in 2023 earlier than paying him nearer to the speed he’d command if wholesome in 2024 as soon as he’s totally recovered.