Are the Pirates contenders or pretenders? MLB execs discuss
The overwhelming majority of preseason prognosticators pegged the Pirates as a back-end group within the National League Central, their rebuilding venture not fairly able to make any actual noise within the division.
Yet right here we stand within the first week of May and Pittsburgh sits atop the NL Central — regardless of being swept this week by the Rays and their 26-6 file — a growth that 15 of 20 voters selected within the “biggest surprise team” class on this week’s MLB.com government ballot.
“Their success isn’t a blip,” an NL government stated of the Pirates, who’re coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons. “They’re showing they can sustain it and fight with the best.”
Sustaining for just a few months is one factor. Can the Pirates really conquer the 162-game grind to succeed in the postseason for the primary time since 2015?
Many of the executives polled don’t suppose so, with 15 predicting a third- or fourth-place end. Only one government picked Pittsburgh to win the NL Central, whereas two predicted a second-place end. None of the respondents, nevertheless, consider the Pirates will wilt badly sufficient to seek out themselves in final place by season’s finish.
“I don’t think they quite have the roster talent to win the division,” an NL government stated. “But already being [eight] games over .500 should keep them out of the basement even if they cool off.”
As of Thursday, the Pirates ranked fourth within the NL in runs scored, thanks largely to a operating recreation that leads the Majors with 44 stolen bases. The membership’s collective .769 OPS ranked fourth within the NL, whereas its 68 doubles and 9 triples had been every tops within the NL.
“They could finish first if they can keep this momentum,” an NL government stated. “They could use a little more production from guys, but defensively, Ke’Bryan Hayes has been solid and so have some of the young arms in the rotation.”
Led by a rejuvenated Vince Velasquez (3.06 ERA) and homegrown arm Mitch Keller (3.32 ERA), the rotation ranked fifth within the NL with a 3.84 ERA, whereas the bullpen — anchored by All-Star nearer David Bednar — ranked second with a 3.21 ERA.
One NL government praised the Pirates’ “youth and overall depth of their roster,” whereas one other referred to as Pittsburgh a “great story” up to now within the season.
Still, many executives are skeptical that the Pirates will be capable of sustain this stage of play for 5 extra months.
“The Pirates will finish second or third behind Milwaukee and possibly the Cubs,” an NL government stated. “They’re solid, but I’m not sure how they’ll handle another big setback or two or a losing streak. I’m also not sure the depth will be super powerful or exciting; it will be soon in another two years or so.”
The largest problem the Pirates might face within the coming months is rotation depth, a theme talked about repeatedly by rival execs. Through Thursday, the Pirates had used the identical 5 starters by means of their first 32 video games, however an damage or two might go away them in a precarious place after JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows had been misplaced for the season to season-ending surgical procedures.
That scenario may need arrived Thursday, when Velasquez left his begin towards the Rays after solely three innings with proper elbow discomfort. The membership’s prime pitching prospect, Quinn Priester, has a 7.78 ERA in 5 begins at Triple-A, although its No. 8 prospect, Luis Ortiz, has a 2.45 ERA in six begins for Indianapolis, making him the possible candidate to get the decision if wanted.
“Their lack of Major League-ready pitching depth will rear its head over the course of the season,” an AL exec stated. Added one other AL decision-maker: “The Pirates will fade based on roster depth and playing a more challenging schedule, but they’ll still manage to finish third.”
Among those that picked the Pirates to fall again within the standings, the assumption that the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals are merely deeper and extra proficient was the first motive given.
“As fun as Pittsburgh’s start has been — and though they certainly do have talent — the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs have the talent and depth to chase them down,” an AL government stated.
“The season is long,” one other AL exec stated. “There’s plenty of time to regress to their preseason expectations.”
Or, maybe, the Pirates are placing themselves in place to shock the baseball world and produce their eight-year playoff drought to an finish.
“… I think it’s a pleasant surprise given their recent years,” an NL government stated. “They have some young talent and solid players. It should be interesting to see if they can maintain the momentum as the season continues.”
