Analyzing what Kevin Kiermaier can bring to the Blue Jays in 2023

The greatest manner to consider what the Toronto Blue Jays are including in Kevin Kiermaier, the left-handed hitting centre fielder the membership’s finalizing a free agent cope with this week, is to think about condensing Raimel Tapia, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Bradley Zimmer into one roster spot.

Last season, the Blue Jays gave that trio 614 mixed plate appearances and 1,481 defensive innings, making an attempt to leverage the strengths of every participant’s profile whereas minimizing their flaws.

The membership different its offence with Tapia’s contact-heavy, left-handed bat early in video games earlier than lifting him defensively late. It leaned on Bradley’s flawless defence however seldom requested him to face a left-handed pitcher. It situationally utilized Zimmer’s defence and game-changing velocity whereas hardly ever letting him close to a consequential plate look.

Going ahead, Kiermaier can present all these traits with fewer limitations and at one-third the roster weight. That begins with the 400 plate appearances he’s positioned to inherit from Tapia. Kiermaier’s offensive strategy is a bit completely different — much less contact with extra self-discipline, much less uncooked energy but higher recreation energy, extra balls within the air than on the bottom — however the general outcomes are comparatively comparable. Tapia contributed a .672 OPS and 90 wRC+ to the Blue Jays final season. Since the beginning of 2020, Kiermaier’s OPS is .690, his wRC+ is 96.

Meanwhile, it was usually Zimmer or Bradley who took over defensively for Tapia late in shut video games. The Blue Jays notably coveted the runs Bradley saved off the board as a centre fielder thanks partly to outfield jumps and arm energy that ranked throughout the top-10 per cent of the league. Kiermaier didn’t solely grade inside that rarefied defensive air himself — he rated even larger.

And in Zimmer, the Blue Jays carried one in every of MLB’s quickest runners — a late-game weapon who averaged 29.2 toes per second on the basepaths. How fast was Kiermaier in 2022? He averaged 29.2 toes per second himself, with a median home-to-first time a tenth of a second sooner than Zimmer’s.

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Ben Nicholson-Smith is Sportsnet’s baseball editor. Arden Zwelling is a senior author. Together, they bring about you essentially the most in-depth Blue Jays podcast within the league, protecting off all the most recent news with opinion and evaluation, in addition to interviews with different insiders and crew members.

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That’s the concept right here. Kiermaier isn’t changing Teoscar Hernandez. He’s condensing — arguably upgrading on — Tapia, Bradley, and Zimmer, serving to create extra roster flexibility that may be utilized in quite a lot of methods to accumulate different outfielders that assist substitute the offence Hernandez took with him to Seattle.

Will that imply betting on Michael Conforto’s return to play? Or Michael Brantley’s skill to keep away from the injured checklist? Is there a extra reliable possibility acquirable by way of commerce similar to Bryan Reynolds, Daulton Varsho, or Ian Happ? Does the membership look to extend its versatility with somebody like Adam Frazier, Brian Anderson, or Jurickson Profar? Is there a extra inventive bench building of a number of part-timers with upside in some mixture of Joey Gallo, Edwin Rios, Trey Mancini, or AJ Pollock?

We’ll see. The one piece of that puzzle we now have to date is Kiermaier, who grew to become a free agent this winter after the Rays purchased out their $13-million 2023 membership possibility on him for $2.5-million.

That was a close to automated choice for the low-payroll Rays with Jose Siri available to take over centre subject, high prospect Josh Lowe nearing major-league readiness, and Kiermaier coming off a rocky 2022 season that led to July with surgical procedure to restore a torn labrum in his left hip.

Following surgical procedure, Kiermaier mentioned “it has been an absolute grind what I’ve played with this last year-and-a-half,” suggesting his hip points initially arose someday in 2021. He was clearly hampered by the ailment in 2022, receiving a number of cortisone pictures, spending 10 days on the IL in June, and hitting .228/.281/.369 with a 90 wRC+ over 63 video games previous to his surgical procedure.

That clearly wasn’t one of the best or most consultant pattern of Kiermaier’s skill. So, what is going to he carry to the 2023 Blue Jays? Let’s check out every facet of his recreation.

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Defence

It isn’t hyperbolic to say Kiermaier’s been MLB’s greatest defensive outfielder since he entered the league in 2014. He’s second to solely Mookie Betts over that span in final zone score (72.4 to Betts’ 89.3) and has him beat in defensive runs saved (134 to 129). That’s regardless of Kiermaier enjoying over 700 fewer innings and sticking at centre into his 30’s whereas Betts moved to proper.

And even in dropping a step during the last near-decade, Kiermaier’s remained elite. He ranked amongst MLB’s 93rd percentile or larger in outs above common every season from 2017 by means of 2021. And though his 2022 was too condensed to contemplate superior defensive metrics like these, the 32-year-old nonetheless demonstrated elite uncooked ones.

He averaged 92.5-m.p.h. on the highest 10 per cent of his throws, which ranked twentieth amongst outfielder arm energy. His 37.3 common toes per second whereas monitoring down flyballs fell inside MLB’s eight quickest defenders. And his burst — a statcast measure of acceleration that tracks the bottom a participant covers throughout the second 1.5 seconds of their route — was 1.8 toes higher than common, a top-5 mark.

That explosive velocity helps Kiermaier get a number of the greatest outfield jumps you’ll see throughout the sport. It expands the territory he covers, rendering alternatives on the edges of a median outfielder’s vary routine, and letting him make makes an attempt on balls many wouldn’t get close to.

In 2021, Kiermaier ran down 81.3 per cent of the balls Statcast graded him as having a chance on — second solely to Byron Buxton. Of all his alternatives, 40 had a catch chance between 26 and 75 per cent. Kiermaier caught 35 of them, an MLB-best charge.

It all comes collectively to make outfield defence Kiermaier’s best affect on a crew’s win expectancy. A run prevented is the same as a run created. That’s how Kiermaier’s produced 9.1 fWAR during the last 5 seasons regardless of being a below-league-average hitter and lacking substantial time as a consequence of accidents.

If there was ever a membership that stands to learn from that, it’s the Blue Jays. Toronto graded properly under common in outfield DRS (-6), UZR (-17.1), and OAA (-3) final season. And these numbers might’ve been worse if not for the membership’s aggressive deployment of four-man outfields and exaggerated shifts.

MLB’s shift restriction will restrict Toronto’s skill to place defenders as optimally in 2023. But the addition of a superlative defender like Kiermaier, in tandem with the improve George Springer will present over Hernandez as he performs extra typically in proper subject, ought to assist make up for it after which some.

Offence

Kiermaier’s by no means been recognized for his bat and nobody’s anticipating him to energy Toronto’s offence. The wager the Blue Jays are making is that, along with his hip points within the rearview, Kiermaier may be one thing nearer to the .249/.310/.410 profession hitter he was over his first eight years as a big-leaguer. Considering the 2022 league common was .243/.312/.395, that’s definitely playable.

But is even that a lofty expectation? Possibly. Kiermaier’s greatest season since 2017 was truly 2021 when his hip points started. He completed that marketing campaign with a .259/.328/.388 line, good for a 101 wRC+. Kiermaier was a below-league-average hitter every of the three seasons prior, together with back-to-back 79 wRC+ efforts in 2018 and ’19. His profession numbers are pulled up considerably by a powerful, .262/.419/.431 line — good for a 107 wRC+ — over his first 4 MLB seasons. He’s posted an 87 wRC+ over the half-decade since.

The image appears worse whenever you layer in Kiermaier’s rising strikeout charge over that latest pattern, which hit a career-high of 27.6 per cent in 2022. He struck out solely 18.3 per cent of the time over his first three MLB seasons however has been operating charges within the low-to-mid 20’s ever since. And the three highest strikeout charges of his profession have come within the final three years. That’s a troubling pattern.

Kiermaier has a minimum of proven a capability to combine a good variety of free passes in with these strikeouts, posting a 12.6 per cent stroll charge throughout pandemic-shortened 2020 adopted by an 8.5 in 2021. But he was again down to six.3 per cent in 2022, which traces up along with his seven per cent profession clip. That’s a good expectation going ahead.

There isn’t a lot in Kiermaier’s Statcast information to dream on, both. His common exit velocity and barrel charge during the last 5 seasons are properly below-average, and whereas anticipated statistics counsel he deserved higher outcomes than he noticed for the standard of contact he made final season, the alternative was true in 2021 over a a lot bigger pattern. And even regressing positively to his 2022 anticipated statistics — .250 xBA, .388 xSLG, .305 xwOBA — wouldn’t make Kiermaier an above-average participant, to say nothing of the shortage of onerous contact underlying these numbers.

Still, MLB’s shift restriction might assist Kiermaier, who hit .172/.226/.310 with a .238 wOBA within the 26.8 per cent of whole plate appearances he was shifted in during the last three seasons. He hit .250/.302/.392 with a .305 wOBA when not shifted over that span, which, once more, isn’t dominant however is way more playable on the backside of a lineup.

So, what’s a sensible expectation for Kiermaier offensively in 2023? Likely numbers round 10 per cent under league common over the 400 plate appearances he might make from the bottom-third of Toronto’s batting order. That’s primarily what Tapia supplied the 2022 Blue Jays, batting .265/.292/.380 with a 90 wRC+ over 433 plate appearances.

Remember, that was on a 92-win crew. Given the substantial defensive improve Kiermaier is over Tapia, the Blue Jays can be joyful to take these offensive numbers once more — assuming a extra impactful outfield bat is added to the on a regular basis combine forward of him.

Baserunning

While he doesn’t attain first typically sufficient to totally leverage it, Kiermaier gives glorious velocity on the basepaths. His 29.2 toes per second dash velocity ranked amongst MLB’s 93rd percentile in 2022, and he completed within the top-5 per cent of the league every of the prior three seasons when he wasn’t enjoying by means of a hip problem. Combining that with constant effort out of the field and innate savviness, Kiermaier stays one in every of MLB’s greatest at swiping an additional base from unsuspecting outfielders.

You can wager Blue Jays supervisor John Schneider will discover loads of use for that after demonstrating the aggressive baserunning strategy he likes to deploy over the back-half of 2022. Through the primary 88 video games of the season with Charlie Montoyo as supervisor, the Blue Jays averaged .56 stolen base makes an attempt per recreation. But over the ultimate 74 video games of the marketing campaign performed underneath Schneider, that charge jumped to .72 per contest. And, whereas dependable hit-and-run information stays onerous to come back by, the membership definitely appeared extra prepared to make the most of the tactic with Schneider on the helm.

Kiermaier hasn’t been stealing bases as continuously of late as he did in his 20’s, making an attempt solely 30 during the last three seasons. But he has a 76.7 per cent success charge over that span, which is correct in keeping with his profession common. And in 2021, Kiermaier took an additional base — outlined as advancing multiple base on a single or greater than two on a double — in 57 per cent of his alternatives, a top-15 charge throughout MLB.

That tells you he’s simply as crafty as ever when selecting his spots to run. Could MLB’s bigger bases and new pick-off restrict encourage him to take off extra typically in 2023? It wouldn’t be stunning. And with Schneider in cost, a shrewd veteran like Kiermaier is prone to have the inexperienced gentle at any time when he needs it. 

Health

You can debate whether or not or not well being is a talent. But there’s no arguing that all the above is moot if Kiermaier’s unable to take the sector. And all through his Rays tenure, availability was by no means sure.

Kiermaier appeared in 654 of Tampa’s 1,032 video games during the last seven seasons — a mere 63.4 per cent. There was final yr’s hip problem that required surgical procedure; separate IL stints for quad and wrist illnesses in 2021 adopted by an low season knee process; a left thumb sprain in 2019 suffered sliding headfirst into first base; a 2018 proper thumb damage that value him two months earlier than a fractured foot ended his season; one other two months missed in 2017 as a consequence of a hip fracture; a number of fractures in Kiermaier’s left hand that value him 48 video games in 2016. It’s so much.

To his credit score, the vast majority of Kiermaier’s accidents have resulted from his fearless, full-send strategy and a willingness to sacrifice his physique to supply good outcomes for his crew. Here he’s fracturing these bones in his left hand making an attempt to make a play on a ball most centre fielders enable to drop in:

And right here’s the hip fracture from 2017, suffered as Kiermaier went right into a slide to attempt to beat out a routine groundball to first that had no business being an in depth play:

Watch sufficient Kiermaier video and also you’ll discover he isn’t solely a hazard to himself, however these round him. His vary is so vast, and his need to make each play so unrelenting, that he’ll sometimes barrel in entrance of proper or left fielders and crash down upon shortstops or second basemen whereas pursuing fly balls. Like Springer, it’s evident Kiermaier has just one recreation velocity — all-out. Regardless of any human being or stadium construction which will stand in his manner.

You might argue that Kiermaier should be a bit extra cautious and selective along with his makes an attempt on the near-impossible. But you then’re within the uncomfortable place of faulting effort. And is Kevin Kiermaier Kevin Kiermaier if he isn’t flying everywhere in the subject looking down each final ball in play?

Ultimately, Kiermaier’s constructed his profession making performs most gamers can’t. There’s in all probability a cause he’s the uncommon, WAR-producing veteran to exit the Rays group by way of something aside from commerce. He can fill a precious function on a profitable crew. And if making an attempt too onerous to make performs is a flaw, it’s one you’ll abdomen for his options.

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