After Blue Jays, Guerrero Jr. go to arbitration, one question lingers: Why?
TORONTO — Even in the event that they’d crushed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — and the Toronto Blue Jays didn’t, as arbitrators awarded the all-star first baseman’s ask of $19.9 million reasonably than the membership’s $18.05 million provide — the identical pivotal query would have lingered: What was the purpose of that?
The arbitration course of, in spite of everything, is predicated on comparable gamers and particular person stats, with the uncertainty of what occurs as soon as arguments are made to a three-person panel often driving the perimeters to make a deal. Hearings may depart gamers annoyed — a threat value avoiding, particularly with a cornerstone participant eligible without cost company after 2025.
Typically, then, the divergence in how membership and participant see issues should be significantly vast to not discover center floor.
The Blue Jays had an unusually busy caseload this yr, too, with 12 gamers eligible for arbitration. They discovered mutually agreeable comps for everybody however Guerrero. As a “file-and-trial” group, the one means out of a listening to for the Blue Jays after the perimeters traded provide and ask on Jan. 11 was with a multiyear deal, an avenue they used with Josh Donaldson in 2016 and Bo Bichette final winter.
With Guerrero, there have been no negotiations after they exchanged numbers.
All of which makes a fairly exhausting line for the Blue Jays to take, particularly when he’s been on a wage and efficiency trajectory comparable sufficient to New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso for a robust, handy and related comp.
Alonso and Mets agreed at $20.5 million earlier than the Jan. 11 submitting deadline. At $19.9 million, Guerrero’s award appears much more according to that wage than the Blue Jays’ provide of $18.05 million, because the chart under reveals.
Another seemingly related comparable is the $5.9 million elevate Juan Soto obtained in his third time by way of arbitration after the 2022 season, when his numbers declined after a stronger 2021. Guerrero additionally dipped in 2023 after a stronger 2022 – at the same price to Soto — and final yr had a stat line comparatively near Soto’s in ’22.
The Blue Jays’ provide of $18.05 million was a elevate of $3.55 million on the $14.5 million Guerrero earned final yr. Guerrero’s $19.9 million ask supplies a elevate of $5.4 million, much more according to Soto’s acquire.
What the perimeters introduced throughout Tuesday’s listening to isn’t identified and what tipped the scales for the arbitrators isn’t clear, as they don’t share opinions on their selections.
But given the straightforward quantity matching above, there was a fairly clear pathway to settle earlier than submitting. That they didn’t get there led to a counterproductive train, as often when a participant of Guerrero’s calibre will get to a listening to, the group loses no matter outcome.
That’s why instances like his not often get this far, with the arbitrators on this case handing out the largest wage ever determined in a listening to, regardless of which means they dominated.
Yet the Blue Jays went there, misplaced besides — and for what?
The fallout now relies upon, partly, on whether or not Guerrero is ready to shake off what he heard within the membership’s presentation.
In 2019, when the Blue Jays final went to a listening to, Ryan Tepera was awarded the membership’s provide of $1.525 million reasonably than his ask of $1.8 million and the reliever got here away annoyed by what he heard.
When Marcus Stroman misplaced his case in 2018 ($6.5 million, reasonably than $6.9 million), he tweeted that “the negative things that were said against me, by my own team, will never leave my mind.”
Guerrero is bound to come back away from his arbitration case feeling good that he stood his floor and received. But he’ll additionally know that he was pushed right into a listening to room by a group that doesn’t see his worth in the identical means he does.
