9 players with a big walk-year opportunity
That’s nice news for Machado, for Padres followers and for what stays of a pending free agent class that already had been stretched skinny — particularly on the place participant facet. This shall be a steep drop-off from a 2022-23 class that was stacked with, amongst others, the reigning AL MVP Award winner and a bunch of star shortstops.
When it involves bats, subsequent offseason is ready to characteristic two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani, whose potential free company guarantees to be not like any we’ve seen earlier than. There are a number of different comparatively huge names, resembling Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernández and Rhys Hoskins, every of whom presents a mix of sturdy promoting factors and distinct downsides. Then there are the high-profile rebound candidates who simply signed one-year offers (or offers with opt-outs after 2023) — Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto and Joey Gallo amongst them — who definitely have the expertise to launch themselves again to prominence by subsequent winter.
But what about another place gamers who might use a giant contract yr to push their manner towards the highest of a skinny market, within the wake of Machado’s determination? Here are 9 candidates:
Harrison Bader, CF, Yankees
Bader has a excessive flooring, given his excellent protection at a premium place. No outfielder may even strategy his whole of 57 Outs Above Average since 2018, and his 92nd-percentile dash velocity makes him a risk on the bases as effectively (17-for-20 in steals final yr). But the query is whether or not Bader, getting into his age-29 season, is a glove-first ballhawk or a real two-way contributor. The latter is tough to search out however fairly profitable. (See Brandon Nimmo’s eight-year, $162 million contract this offseason.) Bader gained’t carry Nimmo’s lengthy monitor document of on-base skill into free company, however he does provide some pop to go together with that velocity, hitting 16 homers in 103 video games in 2021 and 5 in 9 video games final postseason. Is {that a} signal of issues to return in Bader’s first full season within the Bronx?
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF/DH, D-backs
While a strong contributor over 5 seasons in Toronto, the youthful Gurriel brother by no means fairly put all of it collectively there. Last season, he batted .291, however his energy fell off a cliff (simply 14 barrels and 5 homers), and the Blue Jays despatched him to the D-backs within the Daulton Varsho commerce. (His new supervisor, Torey Lovullo, not too long ago talked about that Gurriel “fought through a hand injury last year that very few knew about.”) The 29-year-old now has a recent begin within the desert, and though Arizona’s outfield image is crowded, it’s additionally fairly left-handed. The right-handed Gurriel ought to get each alternative for normal taking part in time, and mixing his current enhancements in limiting strikeouts with the return of his 20-homer pop would make him a horny bat subsequent offseason.
Ian Happ, LF, Cubs
A high 10 Draft decide in 2015, Happ ascended to the Majors rapidly however didn’t put collectively an entire season till ‘22, when he made his first All-Star team and produced 4.4 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) — his first time cracking the 2.0 mark. That was in large part due to Happ settling in defensively in left field, where he started 142 games after previously bouncing around the infield and other outfield spots. Happ won his first Gold Glove Award and posted 13 Defensive Runs Saved in left, although Statcast’s Outs Above Average had him with a way more modest plus-2 there. Now the problem is to repeat that success in his contract yr, which might arrange the switch-hitter effectively to hit free company going into his age-29 season.
Kiké Hernández, SS/CF, Red Sox
Two large questions loom over Hernández’s 2023 marketing campaign. First, can he rediscover his kind on the plate? The 31-year-old has been an above-average hitter at occasions in his profession, together with 2021 (108 OPS+, 20 homers), however he struggled mightily final yr (75 OPS+, six homers), whereas lacking greater than two months with a hip flexor pressure and different points. Second, can he excel defensively as Boston’s main shortstop within the absence of Trevor Story? Hernández’s versatility has been his calling card, and he’s been stellar for the Sox in heart discipline over the previous two seasons. Now the membership is relying on him at a place the place he has began a grand whole of 64 MLB video games unfold throughout 9 seasons. That makes 2023 one thing of a high-risk, high-reward yr for Hernández, who has a shot to show himself at one other up-the-middle spot whereas bouncing again with the bat.
Adalberto Mondesi, INF, Red Sox
Nobody on this listing has extra to show than Mondesi, who’s now a yr away from free company regardless of having simply 358 MLB video games to his credit score. (For context, fellow 2016 rookie shortstops Story and Dansby Swanson have each performed in additional than 800 video games.) Mondesi has struggled to supply constantly and likewise handled a wave of accidents, together with a torn ACL in his left knee that stored him out for all however 15 video games final season. But there’s nonetheless “top of the scale” expertise and athleticism right here, within the phrases of Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who acquired Mondesi from the Royals within the wake of Story’s damage. When Mondesi performed a career-high 102 video games in 2019, he led the Majors with 10 triples and swiped 43 bases in 50 makes an attempt. It’s honest to ask whether or not that breakout potential stays, however given Boston’s middle-infield state of affairs, the chance is there for Mondesi to grab.
Amed Rosario, SS, Guardians
This previous shortstop class featured Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Swanson. The subsequent one guarantees no one of that caliber. So it’s not troublesome to think about a situation by which Rosario is the perfect shortstop out there on the open market. While he has not but emerged as a star after rating as a consensus high 10 prospect previous to 2017, Rosario has been extremely sturdy (tied for thirteenth in video games performed since ‘18) while ranking as at least a league-average hitter in each of the past three full seasons (excluding ‘20). The biggest issue here is Rosario’s protection, which might put his future as a shortstop unsure. But if the 27-year-old can preserve these questions at bay, subsequent winter’s market will play proper into his palms.
Jorge Soler, LF/DH, Marlins
What do you make of Soler at this level? He authored a long-awaited breakout in 2019 for Kansas City, main the AL with 48 residence runs, however struggled to comply with up on that success till a 2021 Deadline deal to Atlanta, the place he raked down the stretch and have become a postseason hero. That propelled him to a two-year, $27 million deal in Miami, the place Soler flopped in ‘22, hitting .207/.295/.400 earlier than his marketing campaign ended as a consequence of damage in late July. Now with a clear invoice of well being, Soler will look to experience that rollercoaster again to the highest once more. He has a participant choice for ‘24 that would pay him as much as $13 million, relying on his plate look whole, but when Soler will get that energy swing clicking as soon as extra, the open market shall be loads tempting.
Gio Urshela, INF, Angels
With Machado off the board, Chapman is the clear No. 1 third baseman in subsequent offseason’s class. But who might be the perfect of the remainder? Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria and Justin Turner are of their late 30s. Brian Anderson and Jeimer Candelario had been simply non-tendered and have rather a lot to show. From that group, Urshela stands out — assuming golf equipment nonetheless view him as a 3rd baseman a number of months from now. Acquired by the Angels from the Twins by way of commerce, Urshela figures to spell Anthony Rendon on the scorching nook in 2023, whereas additionally taking part in across the infield. Some added versatility by no means hurts, although, and Urshela has been a quietly productive hitter since breaking out with the Yankees in 2019 (.290/.336/.463, for a 119 OPS+).
Jesse Winker, LF/DH, Brewers
For as depressing as Winker’s 2022 season in Seattle was, a return to his 2020-21 kind (.292/.392/.552 with 36 homers in 164 video games) might re-establish him as certainly one of subsequent offseason’s most enjoyable bats. He definitely has a compelling case as a rebound candidate, if he really is previous the knee and neck accidents that plagued him final yr and led to offseason surgical procedure. Winker’s commerce from Seattle to Milwaukee not solely returns him to the consolation of the NL Central — the place he performed from 2017-21 with Cincinnati — but in addition units him as much as hit in an setting a lot friendlier to left-handed batters. Winker’s lack of defensive worth will maintain down his ceiling as a free agent, but when he’s again to mashing in 2023, he’ll have loads of suitors.
