5 reasons Billy Wagner belongs in the Hall
Billy Wagner is in his eighth 12 months on the Hall of Fame poll. Here’s his case for moving into Cooperstown.
Wagner was probably the most dominant closers ever. The flamethrowing left-hander notched 422 saves in his 16-year profession with the Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox and Braves. He racked up 1,196 strikeouts. He had a 2.31 ERA. He was a seven-time All-Star and the NL Reliever of the Year in 1999, and he helped lead his groups to the postseason seven occasions.
The BBWAA voters appear to be coming round on Wagner, too — he is made large beneficial properties on the poll lately, as much as a career-best 51% share of the vote final 12 months. With three years of eligibility remaining, Wagner is trending towards election.
Here are 5 the explanation why Wagner can be a deserving Hall of Famer.
He stacks as much as the opposite Hall of Fame relievers
There are eight relievers within the Hall of Fame: Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter. How can we examine Wagner’s Hall of Fame credentials to theirs?
Let’s use their reliever JAWS rating — a quantity that mixes these relievers’ complete profession Wins Above Replacement, their seven-year peak WAR, their Win Probability Added and their efficiency in several leverage conditions. It’s basically an all-in-one quantity to match relievers all through baseball historical past and set up a basic Hall of Fame benchmark.
Wagner measures as much as the Hall of Famers. He’s the sixth-best nearer of all-time by reliever JAWS — and the one 5 relievers higher than him are already in Cooperstown. That’s Rivera, Eckersley, Wilhelm, Gossage and Hoffman. And Wagner’s reliever JAWS rating is nicely greater than Smith’s, Fingers’ and Sutter’s.
In different phrases, Wagner was as helpful as a Hall of Fame reliever … so why should not he be one?
Only Mo saved runs off the board higher
Wagner’s profession ERA was 2.31. His profession ERA+ was 187 — meaning he was 87% higher than a league-average pitcher.
Of all pitchers within the Live Ball Era — not simply relievers — solely Rivera, the best nearer in historical past, was higher than Wagner in these classes. Mo had a 2.21 ERA and 205 ERA+.
Lowest ERA, Live Ball Era
Min. 750 innings pitched
1. Mariano Rivera: 2.21
2. Billy Wagner: 2.31
3. Kenley Jansen: 2.46
4. Clayton Kershaw: 2.48
5. (tie) Hoyt Wilhelm / Jacob deGrom: 2.52
And by ERA+, he dwarfs each Hall of Fame reliever however Rivera — Wilhelm (147) is subsequent after Wagner, all the way in which all the way down to Eckersley (116). Whether you simply take a look at Wagner’s regular ERA, or modify it to see how a lot better he was than the remainder of the league when he was pitching, he was one of many best relievers ever.
His price stats are a number of the finest ever
Wagner struck out hitters at one of many highest charges in historical past, and allowed hits and baserunners much less typically than almost some other pitcher.
He struck out a 3rd of all of the batters he confronted in his profession and fanned virtually 12 batters per 9 innings. The solely pitcher higher than Wagner in both class, amongst those that threw the same variety of innings and confronted the same of batters, is Kenley Jansen.
Highest Okay/9 of all time
Min. 750 innings pitched
1. Kenley Jansen: 13.0
2. Billy Wagner: 11.9
3. Chris Sale: 11.1
4. (tie) Blake Snell / Robbie Ray: 11.0
Highest Okay% of all time
Min. 3,000 batters confronted
1. Kenley Jansen: 36.4%
2. Billy Wagner: 33.2%
3. David Robertson: 32.1%
4. Jacob deGrom: 30.8%
5. Chris Sale: 30.6%
Notice that every one these different pitchers are nonetheless lively. Wagner is surrounded on the Okay% and Okay/9 leaderboards by present-day pitchers, who get to pitch within the highest-strikeout period of baseball historical past.
Then there’s Wagner’s .187 profession batting common allowed and 0.998 profession whip. By the identical innings-pitched baseline, his batting common is the second-lowest of all time behind Jansen, and his WHIP is tied for third-lowest (with deGrom) behind Jansen and Addie Joss, who pitched within the Deadball Era.
He has the saves, and the K’s
It’s not like Wagner’s counting stats are missing. He’s one among solely six members of the 400-save membership, and one among solely 13 pitchers with 1,000 or extra strikeouts as a reliever.
Wagner’s 422 saves rank sixth all-time; his 1,196 strikeouts as a reliever rank fourth all-time and are a document for lefty relievers. And there’s just one nearer in MLB historical past with each extra saves and extra K’s than Wagner. That’s Smith, with 478 saves and 1,225 K’s as a reliever, who was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2019.
He was one of many best archetypal closers
Wagner debuted within the Nineties, after Dennis Eckersley had ushered within the period of the ninth-inning nearer. And beginning within the mid-’90s, 12 months after 12 months, there was Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner.
Wagner recorded 9 30-save seasons. Since Eckersley’s first 12 months as a real nearer in 1988, solely Rivera (15) and Hoffman (14) have had extra. Among present closers, solely Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman (eight every) are approaching Wagner.
Wagner additionally recorded 4 100-strikeout seasons, a rarity for a ninth-inning nearer. Since 1988, solely Dellin Betances (5) has extra. Wagner’s 10 seasons with at the very least 75 K’s as a reliever are the second-most of any nearer since 1988 behind Jansen (11).
The strikeouts had been Wagner’s greatest edge over his contemporaries within the Hall of Fame. Rivera solely had one 100-Okay season and 4 75-Okay seasons. Hoffman had two 100-Okay seasons and 5 75-Okay seasons.
