5 contenders with a need for speed at the Deadline

We all know what contending groups might be in search of forward of the Trade Deadline, and that’s the identical factor they’re at all times in search of: pitching, particularly aid pitching, and possibly a bench bat to fill a particular position, like hitting lefties or enjoying shortstop. It’s the identical yearly.

But baseball in 2023 is not like something you’ve ever seen earlier than, as a result of it’s the primary 12 months below the new guidelines. Stolen bases are up. Speed is in — and normal managers are overtly speaking about how they’ve been making an attempt to construct their rosters to be somewhat extra athletic, and somewhat sooner.

Speed, by itself, received’t flip a shedding workforce right into a profitable workforce. But come October, it’s not that onerous to think about memorable examples the place velocity mattered, whether or not it’s one of the crucial well-known stolen bases within the sport’s historical past (Dave Roberts within the 2004 ALCS) or Mookie Betts merely tearing it up across the bases within the 2020 World Series.

We know which groups are contenders, and now, due to a current Statcast addition on Baseball Savant, we all know which groups are the quickest — or not.

That the Reds are baseball’s quickest workforce isn’t any shock in any respect, as a result of it matches precisely with the attention check; the Guardians are at all times among the many quickest golf equipment within the sport; the Phillies are precisely who we projected to be quick earlier than the season. At the opposite finish, properly, does it shock completely anybody that the disappointing Yankees are previous and unathletic?

If there’s not an amazing relationship between workforce velocity and profitable share — and there’s not, as a result of A) Speed has nothing to do with pitching, and B) Speed is closely correlated with youth, and rebuilding non-contenders are usually younger — then it’s value mentioning that there is an amazing relationship between velocity and worth, outlined right here as taking all types of liberties on the bases by way of being aggressive on the proper occasions and taking further bases. (Read extra about this metric right here, which is nearly working the bases on batted balls, not stolen bases.)

Remember: Back in 2004, three months earlier than his legendary ALCS steal, Roberts himself was a Deadline Day acquisition, traded from the Dodgers to the Red Sox on July 31. Sometimes, all it takes is one speedy runner, in the fitting scenario, in the fitting playoff recreation.

Let’s discover some contenders on the underside half of the working scale — and see if we are able to discover some suits to assist in giving them a lift.

All stats are coming into Wednesday’s video games.

Yankees
(thirtieth in workforce velocity, twenty ninth in baserunning worth, twenty second in stolen bases)

Whether or not you consider the Yankees are nonetheless critical playoff contenders or not is as much as you, however they nonetheless have a one-in-three shot in response to FanGraphs, and they’re — as of Wednesday morning — solely 2 1/2 video games out of the ultimate Wild Card spot, with Aaron Judge seemingly on the verge of a return. Being poor on the bases isn’t their solely drawback, however it’s undoubtedly a drawback.

Simply holding Harrison Bader (the quickest Yankee over the previous two seasons) wholesome and on the sphere would assist, however other than him, the membership has had a complete lot of issues merely staffing an outfield, as for weeks they’ve been compelled to resort to journeymen fill-ins or utility gamers. It’s in all probability secure to imagine that even when Judge returns, he’ll in all probability spend a part of his time at DH, so let’s deal with the outfield right here.

Fortunately, there are alternatives. There’s a pair of bigger-ticket names who’ve already been coveted by Yankee followers, in Cody Bellinger (73rd percentile in velocity) and Lane Thomas (94). Maybe you’d favor a task participant? Try Detroit’s Matt Vierling (93), who can play all three outfield spots and likewise has some infield expertise, too. Bader’s former teammate in St. Louis, Tyler O’Neill (75 this 12 months, although 98 final 12 months) just lately returned from harm and might be a buy-low likelihood on a former Gold Glover.

If you simply need pure, top-of-the-scale, velocity velocity, then maybe Oakland’s Esteury Ruiz (98) is out there, although he’s a poor hitter and defender, and the A’s may not wish to transfer him; a a lot lesser-known model of Ruiz could be Kansas City’s 30-year-old rookie Dairon Blanco, one thing of a runner-only participant who’s, in the mean time, basically the quickest man in baseball.

There are choices, anyway — and even when it doesn’t assist the Yankees get into the playoffs this 12 months, they absolutely can’t return the identical roster subsequent 12 months, even older, even slower.

Angels
(twenty third in workforce velocity, twenty seventh in baserunning worth, twenty seventh in stolen bases)

Obviously, nothing right here issues in any respect other than the limitless will-they/received’t-they over Shohei Ohtani, although it’s value noting that after just a few seasons the place he appeared like one of many recreation’s elite speedsters, he’s right down to merely above-average this season. Their quickest runner, Mike Trout, is out with one other harm, however both manner, he simply doesn’t use his velocity anymore, with solely six steals up to now 4 seasons. No workforce in baseball takes fewer of the extra-base alternatives introduced to them.

Of course, should you take a look at their workforce velocity rankings, Trout is anticipated to be again within the subsequent few weeks, and rookie shortstop Zach Neto, their fourth-fastest participant, must be again on Friday after lacking per week with a again drawback. The drawback right here, other than the truth that most or all of their provides could be on the mound, is that they don’t actually have an apparent spot so as to add velocity. Certainly that’s not a priority at catcher or first base, and the outfield is well-staffed as it’s. Would they hassle changing second baseman Luis Rengifo or third baseman Mike Moustakas within the title of velocity? Probably not — and if they need a burner, up-and-down outfielder Jo Adell (93rd percentile velocity) is only a name away.

Rangers
(eighth in workforce velocity, twenty fourth in baserunning worth, twenty sixth in stolen bases)

Texas is attention-grabbing, as a result of the roster isn’t truly gradual; Ezequiel Duran, Leody Taveras, Travis Jankowski, and Marcus Semien all have properly above-average velocity, and so they can merely dip into the Minors to name up Bubba Thompson, who’s one of many recreation’s elite speedsters. But regardless of that, this workforce hasn’t truly been all that productive on the bases, no matter whether or not you take a look at Statcast’s worth formulation (twenty fourth), FanGraphs’s model (twenty seventh) or simply uncooked steals (twenty sixth).

Any transfer the Rangers are more likely to make on the Deadline must be to shore up their susceptible bullpen, plus the presence of Thompson signifies that including velocity through commerce isn’t actually a precedence.

Giants
(twenty ninth in workforce velocity, nineteenth in baserunning worth, twenty ninth in stolen bases)

San Francisco did simply name up high prospect Marco Luciano, however he’s not going to supply as a lot velocity as you’d count on from a 21-year-old shortstop. (He has simply 21 steals in components of 4 Minor League seasons, and his MLB Pipeline scouting report glowingly talks about his bat velocity whereas calling his foot velocity “fringy.”) That stated, longtime (and at present injured) incumbent shortstop Brandon Crawford is, at 36 years previous, the slowest runner at his place within the recreation, so even a modest velocity enhance on the place would assist.

Similar to the Rangers and Thompson, the Giants have speedy outfielder Bryce Johnson (91st percentile in velocity) at Triple-A. But the Giants, even with Luciano, and even with Crawford not all that removed from a return to play, nonetheless have an issue within the center infield, partly as a result of Thairo Estrada continues to be weeks away from a return after fracturing his left hand.

It’s clear they’ll be after center infield assist, partly as a result of rookie infielder Casey Schmitt is hitting simply .207/.252/.293. That in all probability means a veteran like Tim Anderson or Paul DeJong, however there’s a velocity choice too, one who already wears black and orange. The Orioles have extra infielders than they know what to do with proper now, and whereas Jorge Mateo isn’t a starting-caliber hitter, he is an efficient fielder with game-changing velocity, tied with Corbin Carroll because the sixth-fastest participant within the recreation.

But if it’s the right-handed-hitting outfielder additionally they want — on condition that the Giants are the second-weakest membership within the Majors towards lefty pitching — then possibly the Nationals’ Thomas would make a complete lot of sense, if velocity is a part of the purpose.

Blue Jays
(18th in workforce velocity, sixteenth in baserunning worth, sixteenth in stolen bases)

To some extent, the Blue Jays are dragged down by the truth that Alejandro Kirk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Brandon Belt are every among the many slowest runners at their positions, and absolutely the membership received’t be — and shouldn’t be — shifting on from any of these three. Despite the presence of Kevin Kiermaier, the Blue Jays have hit the elite 30 ft/sec mark simply 5 occasions this 12 months. Bobby Witt Jr., by comparability, has had a type of ‘bolts’ 88 occasions all by himself.

But if that trio isn’t replaceable, and Kiermaier nonetheless retains above-average velocity, and Matt Chapman stays one of many sooner third basemen within the sport — and positively nobody’s making an attempt to improve over Bo Bichette at shortstop or George Springer in proper — then the place do you add? The reply right here is perhaps at second base, maybe not directly. What we imply by that’s that regardless that Whit Merrifield stays as quick as Kiermaier, he’s spending quite a lot of time platooning with Daulton Varsho in left subject. The remainder of the time goes to Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal, who haven’t been productive (a mixed .222/.300/.347). While Biggio has first rate velocity, Espinal is barely beneath common.

Perhaps that is solved by merely buying and selling for a center infielder, like DeJong or Anderson, who can play second. But this is perhaps one more spot the place a righty outfielder suits, and whereas that might be somebody like previous good friend Randal Grichuk, there’s quite a lot of motive to take a shot on O’Neill right here, and never solely as a result of he’s a Canadian native (albeit from out in British Columbia). It’s as a result of his glove would assist additional reinforce what’s already a robust defensive outfield, and since regardless that his season has been tormented by harm, notice that on Tuesday night time, when he grounded out within the high of the ninth, he bought as much as 29.9 ft/sec as he ran to first.

It was his quickest run of the season. It would have been tied for Toronto’s seventh quickest of the season. It got here only a week after his return from a again harm that had sabotaged a lot of his season. If he’s wholesome — and that run positive makes you’re feeling higher that he’s — then that’s an incredible signal for the velocity he nonetheless has to supply.