10 questions that will decide the AL East
Spring Training has begun, which implies Opening Day is quick approaching. Every 12 months, we preview a distinct division each two weeks main as much as the beginning of the season, which implies we at the moment are on our third division preview.
Today we proceed with the perpetual drama that’s the American League East, a division that had three playoff groups final 12 months, 4 groups over .500 and likewise the Red Sox. While we’re not fairly within the arms race period of the early aughts, this division continues to be traditionally stacked, with heavy spenders, groups loaded with younger prospects, and, once more, additionally the Red Sox.
Still, with regards to the Sox, it’s price noting that they’re the one AL East staff that has received a World Series within the final 13 years. The Rays are the one different membership within the division to have even made one in that point. That’s laborious, as a result of at this level, the World Series must be thought-about the objective for every staff in AL East.
So, let’s proceed our previews with the AL East. Teams are listed in alphabetical order by nickname up high, with my standings prediction under.
1) Will the remodeled outfield be higher?
In 2022, the Jays had a big-hitting outfield of George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernández — three males who hit a ton of balls into and over the outfield however, once they visited the identical space with their gloves, had an inclination to let practically as many balls drop. The Jays made the guess this offseason that they’d sufficient hitting, thanks, and switched to upgrading the outfield protection, buying and selling Gurriel to Arizona, buying and selling Hernández to Seattle, shifting Springer to proper and bringing in defensive whiz Kevin Kiermaier and the ever-fascinating Daulton Varsho. The plan is sensible, particularly if Varsho can maintain hitting along with his protection, however are we positive they’re not going to overlook the offense Gurriel and Hernández have offered? There’s all of the sudden so much much less depth on the market, too. The Jays are top-heavy with stars, however they higher keep wholesome.
2) Will there be extra hearth within the stomach?
The Blue Jays made the playoffs final 12 months, and jeez, a staff with as a lot expertise as they possess higher have. But the vibes simply felt off for the Jays just a little bit, didn’t they? They acquired off to a slow-ish begin, the Yankees pulled away from them so much sooner than anybody might have thought, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wasn’t fairly what he was in 2021, the staff simply by no means fairly went on the run all of us anticipated. Again, they nonetheless made the playoffs, and so they’re nonetheless loaded with expertise. But now is meant to be the time the Blue Jays are flooring it — that is their prime. Will the staff play prefer it is aware of it? Will there be extra urgency than in 2022?
1) Do they’ve sufficient pitching?
On the floor, you may perceive why the Orioles didn’t exit and spend a large sum of money on pitching this offseason. It didn’t essentially make sense to herald a Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom; the Orioles don’t look fairly prepared for that but (and it’s removed from clear both would have gone to Baltimore, anyway). And it’s not like throwing all of your free agent {dollars} at middling veteran starters simply to say you probably did is a very environment friendly technique. But the Orioles lastly had their breakthrough final 12 months, and their followers, fairly moderately, anticipated the staff to construct on that. Instead, Baltimore will nonetheless be counting closely on Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer and, particularly, super-phenom Grayson Rodriguez, who’s going to be nice however continues to be simply getting began and is recovering from an harm. The Orioles are coming. But do they really have sufficient pitching to get them anyplace they need to go?
2) Are they able to make the leap?
You actually can’t convey out this reality sufficient: When the Orioles referred to as up Adley Rutschman on May 21, they have been 15-24. Between then and Sept. 3, they went 56-37, among the best information in baseball over that stretch. The Orioles ran out of fuel just a little down the stretch, nevertheless it’s plain that Rustchman has already change into one of many inner-tier MLB stars and the beating coronary heart of this staff. He’s acquired extra expertise round him this 12 months, and extra is on its approach — the times of the Orioles being the mushy spot of each staff’s schedule are lengthy over. But nonetheless, this division is absolutely good, and extra to the purpose, it’s not going to sit down round and await the Orioles. If Baltimore goes to be the intense contender it plainly desires to be — and the followers moderately anticipate it to be — it greatest get going proper now, sure? If all of it falls completely for the Orioles, they’ve acquired sufficient expertise to make the playoffs this 12 months. But will that actually occur?
1) What can they anticipate from Glasnow?
Is one in every of your final pre-pandemic reminiscences pondering, “Tyler Glasnow is about to be the best pitcher in the world”? It regarded that approach for some time, didn’t it? He’s large, with a physique that sorta seems prefer it was particularly constructed to be a dominant pitcher. But nobody appears to have instructed Glasnow’s physique that, as a result of it retains breaking down. Glasnow threw practically seven innings final 12 months, a 12 months after throwing 88, a 12 months after throwing 57, a 12 months after throwing 60. He’s going to show 30 in August! The Rays consider he might be their No. 2 starter this 12 months, and if he’s wholesome, he offers their rotation a ceiling that rivals that of any staff within the Majors. But perhaps we should always get to, you recognize, 100 innings first. The Rays have a stable, deep rotation with out Glasnow. But with him, they’re a terror in a brief sequence.
2) Is Wander going to change into an MVP candidate?
The expectations positioned on Wander Franco have been completely unfair, burdening him with turning into the largest Rays homegrown celebrity since Evan Longoria (or, maybe, ever). He’s solely 21 and being requested to be the linchpin of a complete franchise. Franco was nonetheless an above-average participant final 12 months — a outstanding feat for a participant that younger — however he was suffering from accidents and didn’t ascend to the MVP stratosphere as Rays followers may need hoped. But, once more, he’s solely 21. The Rays normally have a roster populated with stable gamers however missing a celebrity within the center. Wander may very well be that man. He most likely can be that man. But can he be that man now?
1) How is that this rotation going to provide innings?
Red Sox followers are pissed off about all kinds of issues happening with this staff proper now, and it’s nonetheless just a little complicated that Xander Bogaerts doesn’t play right here anymore, however for those who’re searching for the lights which might be flashing pink essentially the most urgently, it must be the rotation. They’re previous just like the Mets rotation however not as good because the Mets rotation. There are 4 guys over 30 right here, headed by Chris Sale, who has thrown fewer than 50 innings because you first began utilizing Zoom. Corey Kluber has thrown one full season since 2018; Nick Pivetta makes begins however not superb ones; James Paxton has been damage so many instances it’s legitimately spectacular that his arm continues to be connected to his physique. What occurs if (when) these guys begin getting damage? The Red Sox may run out of pitchers by May.
2) How are they going to make individuals consider once more?
Red Sox followers have been demoralized after Bogaerts left, and Trevor Story‘s harm was one other intestine punch. The offense is doubtlessly intriguing, at the least. Keep a watch on that Adalberto Mondesi addition, whereas the Rafael Devers and Justin Turner combo will maintain any pitcher on his toes. But this staff feels a number of yards quick nearly in all places, notably on this gauntlet of a division. You can see this season getting away from them, disturbingly early. What can they do to show issues round?
1) Can they maintain Judge wholesome?
This may appear to be a disturbing factor to say a couple of man you simply re-signed to a nine-year, $360 million contract, however … man, I hope nothing occurs to Aaron Judge. He is, in spite of everything, a 6-foot-7 man who will flip 31 in April and has solely performed greater than 148 video games or extra thrice in his profession. (That’s lower than half the seasons of his profession.) As you could possibly inform from the Yankees’ desperation to not lose Judge within the offseason, their offense utterly collapses with out him. There could also be no staff in baseball extra reliant on one participant than the Yankees are on Judge. So yeah, Aaron, please exit and hit 62 homers once more and all the things right here must be tremendous.
2) Is this … a run prevention staff now?
Remember the times when Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and firm have been going to steer an offense that might rating 1,000 runs? The Yankees search for all of the world like a staff whose pitching carries its offense slightly than vice versa. The addition of Carlos Rodón offers the Yankees one other ace with Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes, and you may have excessive expectations for Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and Domingo Germán in order for you. The bullpen isn’t as stout because it has been prior to now, however there’s nonetheless loads there, and you must most likely anticipate them so as to add as properly. And Yankees followers are going to very a lot get pleasure from having Harrison Bader patrolling heart subject behind this employees as properly. These aren’t the Bronx Bombers anymore … and that could be OK.
Blue Jays: 95-67
Yankees: 90-72
Orioles: 87-75
Rays: 82-80
Red Sox: 68-94
Seriously, any staff aside from the Red Sox might win this division, and your prediction as to who will achieve this could rely in your specific whims and preconceived notions. Do you assume Judge will keep wholesome sufficient to hold that Yankees offense? Do you assume the Orioles can maintain their surge going? Do you assume the Rays are stepping ahead or going backward? (I’m most likely too low on the Rays, now that I have a look at it.) I are likely to assume the Blue Jays are due for a consolidation 12 months when all the things lastly goes proper for them unexpectedly. But your mileage could differ.
