10 key questions that will decide the NL Central
Opening Day is now lower than two months away. That’s so quickly! Every yr, we preview a special division each two weeks main as much as the beginning of the season, which implies we are actually on our second division preview: We did the American League West a fortnight in the past.
Today we proceed with the National League Central, which, for all of the discuss of a transparent hierarchy, has featured a special division champion every of the previous three seasons. (The solely workforce that has by no means received this division is Pittsburgh, which is definitely 4 NL Central titles behind … Houston.)
The Cardinals are the defending champs, they usually’ll be favored by most once more this yr after bringing in Willson Contreras to take over for Cards icon Yadier Molina. But each the Brewers and Cubs have muscled up this offseason as nicely, and the Reds and Pirates have slightly extra expertise than it might sound at first look. This division tends to shock you slightly greater than you may suppose.
So, let’s proceed our previews with the NL Central. Teams are listed in alphabetical order by nickname up high, with my standings prediction beneath.
1) Is this offense higher than everyone thinks?
The basic consensus on the 2022 Brewers is that their pitching was nice however they didn’t have fairly sufficient offense to make up for a few of their late-season bullpen points, resulting in a skid they couldn’t fairly escape. But whereas there’s some fact to that, the Brewers’ offense was far more productive than you may bear in mind: Essentially each place of their lineup aside from catcher was common or above final yr (going by OPS+), with a lot of the manufacturing coming from gamers you wouldn’t have anticipated, comparable to Rowdy Tellez and Luis Urías.
Some of these stalwarts from final yr are gone, together with Kolten Wong and Hunter Renfroe, however the Brewers have been sensible and stealthy with additions, bringing in Jesse Winker and William Contreras. (We’re nonetheless unsure how they snuck into the Sean Murphy commerce and snagged Contreras.) This lineup is rather a lot thicker high to backside than it was final yr, so underestimate it at your individual threat.
2) Will they keep away from making any too-clever-by-half offers?
On Aug. 1, 2022, the day the Brewers traded Josh Hader to the Padres, the Brewers have been 57-45 and three video games forward of the Cardinals for first place within the NL Central. The Brewers then misplaced their subsequent three video games — two of them walk-offs — and 5 of their subsequent six. By Aug. 6, they have been in second place … and would by no means get again in first once more, finally lacking the playoffs fully. We carry this up to not make Brewers followers relive it — and we must always be aware that Hader wasn’t precisely dominant for San Diego — however to remind that even trades that make theoretical sense can fall flat when confronted with actuality.
Brewers brass has admitted buying and selling Hader was a mistake — that the clubhouse was a large number afterward. Sounds like they’ve discovered their lesson. Then you retain listening to about Corbin Burnes commerce rumors, and you are worried once more if the Brewers are overthinking all the pieces. Milwaukee has a superb workforce — one adequate to win the division. Will the entrance workplace go away them alone and allow them to strive?
1) How does the outfield type itself out?
It feels just like the Cardinals have had an outfield logjam for half a decade. Remember, they traded away Randy Arozarena (and even Luke Voit and Tommy Pham) to assist filter out area for all their outfield depth years in the past, they usually did so once more final yr by sending Harrison Bader to the Yankees. Yet they nonetheless haven’t discovered any of the positions for 2023.
The Cardinals are loaded with proficient outfielders, together with former phenom Dylan Carlson, toolsy-but-oft-injured Gold Glover Tyler O’Neill, 2023 breakout star Lars Nootbaar, Top 100 prospect Alec Burleson, Albert Pujols protégé Juan Yepez and even utilityman Brendan Donovan. And that record doesn’t even embody No. 4 general prospect Jordan Walker, who may nicely be the Opening Day proper fielder. The Cardinals are oozing with outfield expertise, however they’ve been for years now, with out a corresponding quantity of productiveness. How this all shakes out might decide how nicely this offense clicks.
2) Do they’ve sufficient pitching?
For all of the celebrity place gamers they’ve had the previous few years, the true indicator for Cardinals success has been a easy one: When they’ve sufficient beginning pitching, they make the playoffs, and after they don’t, they don’t. So perhaps there needs to be some alarm bells this yr.
The Cardinals’ rotation is oddly spackled collectively, with Miles Mikolas the one actual fixed (and he, like 80% of the present rotation, is a free agent after this yr). Alongside him, the Cardinals have a madly inconsistent Jack Flaherty, an oft-injured Steven Matz, Trade Deadline star Jordan Montgomery and the farewell tour of Adam Wainwright, who is a superb story however fully fell aside down the stretch final yr.
Behind them, there’s … Dakota Hudson? Drew VerHagen? Gordon Graceffo? Matthew Liberatore? Jake Woodford? Nothing confirmed, that’s for certain. Can the Cardinals cowl the innings essential to win the division? If anybody pitcher falls off or will get damage — a statistical inevitability — then what do they do? Your guess is pretty much as good as ours.
1) What can we make of this remodeled offense?
Cubs followers have been annoyed by the workforce’s lack of exercise the previous couple of years — and, after all, its willingness to let all these World Series heroes go away city — however they definitely can’t say the workforce sat on its palms this offseason. The Opening Day lineup can have extra new faces than returning ones: Eric Hosmer at first, Cody Bellinger in heart, Tucker Barnhart at catcher, Trey Mancini at DH and, most ambitiously, Dansby Swanson at shortstop, signed to the workforce’s second-biggest contract ever (and better by common annual worth than Jason Heyward’s 2015 deal).
As many signings as there have been, although, it’s powerful to argue the Cubs added any superstars, even together with Swanson, who was clearly fourth among the many large 4 shortstops to hit the market. This offense is clearly higher. But is it by higher sufficient?
2) Are we clear in regards to the long-term plan right here?
Signing Swanson was positively an indication that the Cubs are now not punting: That’s some huge cash to decide to a key place for seven years, cash that certain makes it appear to be the Cubs are prepared to begin successful video games once more. (The short-term offers to Bellinger and firm definitely indicate this as nicely.) But even in a division just like the NL Central, which is hardly some bastion of juggernauts the caliber of the NL and AL East, the Cubs nonetheless appear to have a transparent ceiling.
To contend this yr — and actually for the following couple of years — they want the Cardinals and Brewers to stumble and they should hope the Reds and Pirates don’t make a run with their younger gamers. The Cubs have some good prospects coming, however they’re hardly stacked just like the Orioles. The Cubs have spent sufficient cash this offseason to make it appear to be they’re attempting. But, you already know, how arduous?
1) When do the prospects begin displaying up and paying off?
This is the fourth consecutive season that the Pirates have reached the high 10 in MLB Pipeline’s farm system rankings, which is nice but in addition its personal type of indictment; even with that expertise, they’ve nonetheless completed final within the NL Central yearly. Players comparable to Ke’Bryan Hayes, Roansy Contreras and Oneil Cruz have reached the Majors and located success, however nothing resembling superstardom.
You’ve acquired prospects like Henry Davis, Quinn Priester, Liover Peguero and others coming, however they’re hardly 100% prepared themselves. And the workforce seems primarily prefer it all the time does, besides now their greatest participant, Bryan Reynolds, needs to be traded. The Pirates will probably have a high 10 class subsequent yr. They will probably end in final once more, too. This is the definition of spinning one’s wheels.
2) How cool is it going to be to have Cutch again?
If you wish to make the argument that bringing franchise icon Andrew McCutchen again will not assist the Pirates appear extra enjoyable and thrilling and emotionally partaking than they in any other case could be, that’s in all probability a good level and wow are you no enjoyable. Seeing Cutch — a man who for some time seemed like he’d have his personal statue outdoors PNC Park — again in a Pirates uniform is low-key probably the greatest storylines in baseball this yr, and it’s value remembering that he can nonetheless hit, too.
He makes the Pirates’ lineup higher, and the lineup may use the assistance. No matter what occurs this yr, 2023 goes to be memorable as a result of it was the yr MCCUTCHEN 22 was an energetic Pirates uniform once more. That won’t result in a division title. But it’s not nothing.
1) Do they’ve two of one of the best 5 starters on this division?
The Reds are a couple of years away from severe rivalry, significantly with a lineup that appears … let’s name it patchwork. (There’s hope within the farm system, however not in 2023.)
That’s a disgrace, as a result of you can also make an argument that the Reds have a 1-2 punch that may be the envy of lots of groups in baseball — they usually’re each younger. In Hunter Greene (age-23 season) and Nick Lodolo (25), the Reds have the type of basis any workforce would need: Two cost-controlled starters with ace potential, maybe as early as this season. Greene, specifically, appears poised to make an All-Star workforce this yr. The remainder of the rotation doesn’t have their upside, however when it traces up proper, the Reds will likely be a headache to go go to on many a weekend.
2) Can Votto have a fond goodbye?
It has been 11 years since Joey Votto signed his $251 million, 12-year extension, and if the Reds don’t decide up his $20 million possibility for 2024, this may very well be his remaining yr in a Cincinnati uniform. (And perhaps any uniform.)
Considering how a lot Votto has meant to this franchise — in keeping with Baseball-Reference WAR, Votto is Cincinnati’s fourth-best participant ever, behind solely Pete Rose, Johnny Bench and Barry Larkin — you’d like to see him have the type of sendoff Albert Pujols had in St. Louis final season. One factor has positively modified since 2012: The AP story about that extension mentioned that Votto’s “shy personality came across during a news conference.” It is honest to say that nobody considers Votto shy anymore.
THIS HUMBLE SCRIBE’S BEST GUESS AT THE STANDINGS
Brewers: 88-74
Cardinals: 87-75
Cubs: 81-81
Pirates: 68-94
Reds: 66-96
It actually seems like individuals are sleeping on the Brewers. They seemed like a reliable World Series contender till final season’s Trade Deadline, they usually nonetheless have a killer rotation, stable bullpen and an underappreciated lineup. And after the backlash to the Hader commerce, it certain seems like they’ll should attempt to maintain them collectively. Meanwhile, the Cardinals not solely appear quick on pitching, it needs to be talked about that they may in all probability miss Pujols greater than folks suppose. He was the third large bat alongside Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt the workforce had been searching for over the previous few years, and now he’s gone. They ought to nonetheless find yourself with a Wild Card berth, however the Brewers, to those eyes, look slightly bit higher over the lengthy haul.
