10 key questions that will decide the AL West
Want to know the way shut we’re to the start of the 2023 season? Well, should you have been to preview a distinct division each two weeks and be sure to bought all six of them in earlier than the season began, you’d have to begin proper now. Like, as we speak. That’s thrilling, proper? It’ll be right here earlier than you already know it.
That is our long-winded approach of claiming as we speak kicks off our Division Previews collection, through which we ask two huge questions on every staff and, foolishly, try to make predictions. We start with the American League West, a division that has:
• The defending World Series champion
• The greatest participant of the final decade
• The greatest two-way participant ever
• The high free-agent pitcher signing
• The defending AL Rookie of the Year who simply led his staff to the playoffs for the primary time in 21 years
• The A’s
So, enjoyable division! Let’s begin our previews with the AL West. Teams are listed in alphabetical order by nickname. We’ll pose two key questions for every staff (10 complete) with my standings prediction under.
1) How most of the vets can keep wholesome?
The downside with the 2022 Angels was, should you can consider this, not their pitching. The staff had 5 starters with above-average ERA+ numbers, and the bullpen was, properly, common — which for the Angels counts as enchancment. But the lineup imploded. Injuries ravaged what was alleged to be a formidable lineup, which is the type of factor that occurs when you’ve gotten as many veterans because the Angels did. Well, guess what? They have extra veterans this 12 months. The additions of Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury ought to theoretically lengthen the lineup, however they’re each over 30 themselves (although nonetheless youthful than Mike Trout). The Angels’ lineup could possibly be a energy this 12 months, however provided that Trout, Jared Walsh, the 2 new additions, Shohei Ohtani and, maybe particularly, Anthony Rendon, can keep wholesome. Can the Angels depend on that? Can they ever?
2) How lengthy will they maintain agency with Shohei?
You could have heard that Ohtani, probably the most thrilling participant in baseball and a expertise like we haven’t seen in a long time, is a free agent on the finish of this season. The Angels have been steadfast in not entertaining any commerce affords for him, however that’s as a result of they plan on contending this 12 months. What occurs if it’s late June and so they’re eight video games out of a playoff spot? (Not seemingly given the expanded playoff format, however actually doable.) The minute the Angels admit they’d decide up the cellphone if anybody calls about Ohtani would open up a commerce feeding frenzy that’d make the Juan Soto sweepstakes appear to be a Pokemon swap. The Angels nonetheless need to re-sign him. But no participant doubtlessly available on the market subsequent offseason would carry again greater than Ohtani, contemplating he’s, primarily, two gamers. The Angels have a ton of questions dealing with them after this 12 months. Trading Ohtani is perhaps the one solution to reply at the least a few of them.
1) Can any of the younger starters step up and be the subsequent Justin Verlander?
All proper, so there actually isn’t a “next Verlander.” The man simply received the AL Cy Young, one other one, so anticipating Framber Valdez or Cristian Javier (and even Luis Garcia) to do what Verlander did for this Astros rotation is unrealistic. But Valdez, Javier and Garcia (and Lance McCullers Jr. and José Urquidy) have all spent their Astros careers not having to be that No. 1 man as a result of Verlander was there. Now he’s not. They all have the opportunity of being ace starters, particularly Valdez and Javier, however the Astros want one in every of them to step up and achieve this. Put it this manner: If there’s a top-shelf starter who hits the market in July, the Astros might be in on him.
2) Did they should improve at catcher?
The Astros don’t have quite a lot of holes, which is smart: They did simply win the World Series. But they have been extensively anticipated to be in on a catcher this offseason, whether or not it was a free agent like Willson Contreras or a commerce candidate like Sean Murphy. Houston ended up staying put, maintaining Martín Maldonado (a free agent after this season), saying goodbye to midseason acquisition Christian Vázquez and hoping the children can fill in appropriately. The Astros even have two prospect catchers: Yainer Diaz (MLB Pipeline’s No. 3 Astros prospect) and Korey Lee (No. 7). Diaz is the higher hitter, one who can play first base (which is now occupied by José Abreu), and Lee is the higher fielder. The Astros clearly belief them each in the long run. Which one do they belief within the quick time period? Also: You can inform the Astros are good as a result of we simply spent a number of sentences asking questions on their backup catchers.
1) So which younger gamers are you constructing round?
The A’s are in such a interval of flux proper now — truthfully, is it doable Aledmys Díaz is the cleanup hitter for this staff? — that you simply actually can solely have a look at the longer term. Which present Athletics shall be on the subsequent aggressive A’s staff? Shea Langeliers, sure; Ramón Laureano, perhaps. Esteury Ruiz, hopefully. The A’s even have extra veterans on their staff than you may like, from Díaz to Jace Peterson to Tony Kemp to even Seth Brown, who’s over 30 himself. You don’t need to rush guys, however how excited are you able to be about anybody over 30 on this roster proper now?
2) Are we going to get some readability quickly?
So a lot of the A’s future is up within the air, together with their future residence ballpark. If you’ve been to a recreation in Oakland when this staff is aggressive, you understand how thrilling a spot it may be when it’s rocking: The fan base typically resembles that of a faculty soccer one — rowdy, loud, younger, rambunctious, persistently loud. It has been some time since we’ve seen that in Oakland. There’s some attention-grabbing younger gamers right here, particularly a few of these rotation items, however that run of three straight playoff appearances from 2018-20 looks like a lengthy time in the past, doesn’t it?
1) The drought is over. Now what?
One wouldn’t essentially say the wait was price it — 21 years is an unreasonably lengthy amongst of time to be with out playoff baseball — however actually there was quite a lot of frustration launched within the Mariners’ Wild Card Series win vs. Toronto final 12 months. (There’s an alternate universe the place Yordan Alvarez strikes out within the ninth inning of ALDS Game 1 and issues end up very in a different way for everybody.) But you solely get to interrupt via as soon as. Now, the Mariners shall be anticipated to make the playoffs shifting ahead. Their offseason strikes mirror this: The additions of Kolten Wong, AJ Pollock and (particularly) Teoscar Hernández are the strikes of a staff that seems like it’s simply getting began. The Mariners is perhaps proper.
2) How excessive can Julio fly?
Julio Rodríguez was all of the Mariners might have probably hoped for final 12 months. The man did all the pieces. He hit for energy, he stole bases, he performed terrific center-field protection, he was the face of the franchise, and he made you are feeling like baseball was probably the most enjoyable sport that has ever been invented each time he stepped on the sphere. So now he simply has to exit and do all of it once more, and perhaps even be somewhat higher. Where might he probably enhance? You marvel if there’s somewhat bit extra energy in that bat, perhaps? Maybe somewhat increased OBP? Rodríguez, in keeping with Fangraphs WAR, was the Twenty eighth-best participant in baseball final 12 months. Imagine how excessive this staff might soar if he’s within the high 10. So, go get ’em, Julio!
1) How many innings can they fairly anticipate from deGrom?
It is undeniably thrilling that Jacob deGrom is pitching for the Rangers. Texas followers must be ecstatic: That’s Hall of Fame-level expertise proper there, on the mound for you, each fifth day. But, after all, it’s the every-fifth-day half that’s the query. deGrom hasn’t thrown greater than 92 innings in a season since 2019, and whereas the innings he has thrown have largely been unimaginable — although he did get a little shaky down the stretch final 12 months — there simply haven’t been sufficient of them. If the Rangers make the playoffs and deGrom is at one hundred pc for a Game 1 begin, this transfer appears to be like genius. But quite a lot of issues must occur for each of these issues to line up. Would you expect it?
2. Do they want an outfield improve?
It’s spectacular that the Rangers have been so prepared to go after top-tier expertise, and, it must be famous, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney aren’t unhealthy back-of-rotation provides both. But it’s type of bizarre that the Rangers haven’t added a lot to the outfield, isn’t it? Your mileage on Adolis García could range — the ability is spectacular, clearly, however he’s a free swinger and an iffy fielder. Then once more, at the least he holds down a spot. Is a playoff contender actually trotting out Leody Taveras and Josh Smith within the different spots, although? It certain looks like the Rangers must be dialing Pittsburgh’s cellphone about Bryan Reynolds, no? The Rangers have some top-shelf gamers, and some optimistic notes like Jonah Heim and the rising Josh Jung. But there are huge holes right here. Can they fill them?
THIS HUMBLE SCRIBE’S BEST GUESS AT THE STANDINGS:
Astros: 100-62
Mariners: 91-71
Angels: 85-77
Rangers: 78-84
A’s: 60-102
It’s powerful to see anybody catching the Astros, however the Mariners appear to be a transparent playoff staff, and the Angels and the Rangers will definitely be within the chase. (The Angels could have extra boom-or-bust potential than any staff in baseball.) The division winner won’t be doubtful, however one will get the sense we’ll be listening to loads from the AL West within the postseason.
