Alan Cross’s 10 predictions for the world of music in 2024 – National | 24CA News
As we get nearer to the one-quarter mark of the twenty first century, it could appear that issues are altering sooner than ever earlier than, particularly within the areas of tradition and media. I cope with music for a dwelling and even I can’t sustain with every part that’s happening. But I feel I can see issues clearly sufficient to make some predictions and observations for music in 2024.
1. Music will grow to be much more fragmented
In the olden days, we bought all our music in measured doses by file labels, radio, music magazines, file shops and video channels. Today, every part ever recorded is out there to us on a regular basis. There’s nobody place — just like the radio or A lotMusic — the place all of us go to listen to/see the artists that everybody is speaking about. Consensus on what’s “good” and who’s “big” has fully damaged down. There’s no centre to music anymore. With the exception of some acts, “big” has by no means been smaller.
Few acts unite us as they as soon as did. There was a time once we all ran to the file retailer to get that one album everybody was speaking about. We handed over chilly, arduous money, making a monetary funding within the artist. Today, there’s a lot music to select from for zero money structure. We spend all our time idly hitting the “skip” button. We’re all overwhelmed. Music has grow to be devalued. Today’s stars are smaller than these from days of yore.
By manner of proof, American radio chart analyst Guy Zapoleon identified that 2023 had fewer “consensus hits” — songs that had been featured on not less than 50 per cent of America’s high 40 stations — than any earlier 12 months. How many? Just 18, down from 28 in 2020.
Meanwhile, there appears to be a rising disenchantment with present music. About 75 per cent of all music consumed right this moment is older than two years. That’s not going to alter.
2. The algorithms will proceed to distort music
Recommendation algorithms was important for working our manner by music discovery. Now, although, they appear to be pushing us to issues which are simply monetized as a substitute of fulfilling our wants. If you are feeling that you simply’re being served up materials that you simply don’t care about, you’re not alone.
Meanwhile, bot farms, pretend streams, poor enforcement/moderation and AI clones are simply going to make issues much more complicated and irritating.
3. TikTok might be much more of a game-changer in 2024
TikTok has been one of many world’s hottest apps for a few years now. The firm realizes that continued development will rely upon deeper integration of licensed music into the platform. Once it has TikTok Music, its streaming service, up and working in additional nations, look ahead to some seismic modifications in how the business reacts.
4. Music streamers should consolidate — ultimately
I’ve been untimely with this prediction earlier than, but it surely’s bought to occur someday. Right now, there are too many platforms chasing subscribers for a quickly maturing business mannequin. Why did Spotify CEO Daniel Ek announce main layoffs simply earlier than Christmas? Because he and his board see tough instances forward. Spotify goes into lean-and-mean mode. Meanwhile, all streamers stay hamstrung by the licensing offers below which they have to work. As quickly as more cash is available in, more cash goes out in lockstep. There’s no alternative for efficiencies and synergies that can improve margins.
Spotify has a market cap of just about US$40 billion and has the reserves to proceed to play the lengthy recreation. Apple Music will survive, because of the truth that the guardian firm is value over US$3 trillion. Anything Alphabet does (YouTube, YouTube Music) can be protected. Amazon Music has Jeff Bezos. But what about Tidal, Qobuz, Deezer, Napster and everybody else? How lengthy can they keep unbiased?
5. The language of widespread music will proceed to evolve
It was that when you needed a world hit, you needed to sing in English. Not anymore. Thanks to the widespread availability of low cost streaming music, songs are free to move anyplace they need. Latin music has exploded. Okay-pop is in all places. It’s solely a matter of time earlier than we see international hits rising from India, China and Africa.
6. The AI-and-music panic will subside
Right now, everybody sees AI as a menace to humanity in music. But we’ve seen this film earlier than with the rise of synthesizers (“They’re killing jobs for musicians!”), drum machines (“Human drummers will become extinct!”) and sampling (“All music will end up just being recycled bits!”). It’ll take just a few extra years to type out all of the legalities and ethics of this new know-how, however we’ll quickly surprise how all of us did with out AI. Just like we did with synths, drum machines and sampling.
7. We will lose extra beloved musicians
With so a lot of our legends of their 70s and 80s, it’s only a matter of time. Prepare your self.
8. We will lastly have music that sounds nearly as good as what we had within the ’70s
A few generations have grown up on the inferior audio high quality of MP3s and their ilk. Convenient and transportable, sure. Good-sounding audio? No. But with the rise of latest tech (Dolby ATMOS, Sony 360, Apple Spatial Audio, Hi-Res Audio) we’re approaching an period the place music is not going to solely sound higher than MP3s and different compressed codecs however higher than CDs. Just a few issues nonetheless have to be labored out (correct decoding {hardware} on telephones, extra bandwidth to permit for wi-fi listening), however we’ve turned a nook with regards to getting again to correct high-fidelity music.
9. We might lastly say sufficient is sufficient to excessive ticket costs
Acts have been pushing arduous to see how a lot followers are prepared to pay to see a present. So far, although, followers haven’t reached the breaking level. Funflation — the thought of spending increasingly cash on enjoyable issues as a result of the world appears so loopy that going to a gig is a technique of dealing with one existential disaster after one other — can’t go on indefinitely. Once artists and promoters begin seeing rows and rows of empty seats, they’ll know that we’ve reached our restrict.
10. The Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce factor will finish badly
Talk a few advertising powerhouse. Kelce was already a star when he crossed paths with Tay-Tay, so when their relationship grew to become public, they grew to become a Richard Burton-Liz Taylor-style phenomenon.
Their tryst has been a win-win for everybody, together with the NFL, which has seen scores in sure demos skyrocket. A large portion of the inhabitants is invested within the couple, however for the story to be full, it has to finish with a tragic breakup. More than one individual has written that if the Kansas City Chiefs tank down the stretch and into the playoffs, Swift will probably be made right into a scapegoat by Chiefs followers for inflicting such a distraction. I’ve already seen her known as “Yoko” a lot of instances. But simply consider the songs she’s going to get out of it!
That might find yourself being the beginning of the Tay-Tay backlash. You can’t grow to be as ubiquitous as Taylor Swift is now eternally. At some level, individuals will start to tire of listening to and studying about her on daily basis. It gained’t be the top of her, nonetheless. She’s confirmed far too savvy with regards to managing her profession and he or she’ll survive any downturn. But Taylormania as we all know it proper now will subside. That’ll be a pleasant break.
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Alan Cross is a broadcaster with Q107 and 102.1 the Edge and a commentator for Global News.
Subscribe to Alan’s Ongoing History of New Music Podcast now on Apple Podcast.
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