Which triple-A bats could impact Blue Jays' offence?

Even after scoring 9 runs in three of their final 4 video games, The Toronto Blue Jays enter Friday with the fourth-lowest scoring lineup within the majors — and any enchancment to the group’s offence is unlikely to come back from outdoors the group.

When Ross Atkins addressed the media final week he acknowledged the potential for an early-season commerce, but additionally stated that there could be a premium to be paid in any deal. Not solely would the value be excessive however any immediate-term offensive improve could be coming to a group with the worst document in its division and that sit at 24.6 per cent in accordance with FanGraphs and dip as little as 15.5 per cent at Baseball-Reference.

That doesn’t imply the Blue Jays ought to hand over on 2024, however it might make much more sense for the group’s entrance workplace to let issues play out a bit than make aggressive additions in the intervening time. This group is extra prone to be a midseason vendor than a purchaser — and it gained’t veer off that course until it begins profitable at a powerful clip. 

As a end result, discovering the offensive increase the Blue Jays want so desperately is sort of sure a matter of getting improved manufacturing in-house. Some of that ought to occur organically with the gamers who’re getting penciled into the lineup each day.

But one other path to offensive enchancment that could be extra impactful — and thrilling for followers uninterested in the established order — is an inflow of expertise from Triple-A. That’s one thing that Atkins famous on Saturday, saying the group ‘had a lot of good players there’ whereas on the similar time questioning their match within the group’s lineup.

That could sound imprecise, but it surely’s fairly clear who Atkins is referring to as a result of the top-5 Buffalo Bisons gamers by OPS are additionally 5 of the six place gamers at Triple-A on Toronto’s 40-man roster — the opposite being third catcher Brian Serven who gained’t be recalled until there’s an damage.

Below is a abstract of the gamers who could possibly be referred to as upon to enhance the Blue Jays offence as 2024 goes on, and a take a look at how probably they’re to make an influence.

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Orelvis Martinez

AAA stats:.245/.333/.528 in 184 plate appearances with 12 house runs and a 115 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .216/.281/.395 with a 93 wRC+

Positional match: The Blue Jays have the defensive versatility to accommodate most place gamers into their lineup and Martinez has primarily performed second base this yr. 

The thought of Toronto slotting in its high hitting prospect at a spot the place the group doesn’t have a full-time participant blocking the best way could sound interesting on the floor, however it’s a new place for Martinez who has spent most of his professional profession on the left aspect on the infield.

It’s unclear if Martinez could be prepared to fit in on the keystone after simply 53 minor-league begins there over the past two seasons and his second place — third base — is one he’s logged simply 5 begins at this yr. 

What’s the influence potential?: Theoretically Martinez brings the form of energy bat the Blue Jays desperately want, however his projections aren’t notably sturdy and even with 12 house runs in his first 43 video games of 2024 his wRC+ (115) is extra good than nice.

Although these numbers don’t leap off the web page, his Statcast knowledge is spectacular. Martinez’s max exit velocity in 2024 (115.2 mph) would rank second to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the Blue Jays and sixteenth amongst all MLB hitters. 

He’s additionally dealt with velocity properly at Triple-A. Against pitches 95 mph or tougher Martinez has slugged .923 with a comparatively modest whiff charge of 17.2 per cent. That isn’t an ideal indicator that he’ll destroy MLB pitching, but it surely suggests he hasn’t simply been feasting on soft-tossing journeymen.

The 22-year-old has lower down on his strikeouts, however he has problem squaring up the ball at instances. While he places the ball within the air a tonne, he’s additionally run an infield flyball charge above 20 per cent at each degree since 2021.

It’s robust to guess towards Martinez’s presents, however there could be a variety of outcomes for him within the majors if he arrived in 2024.

Addison Barger

AAA stats: .289/.434/.535 in 144 plate appearances with 5 house runs and a 153 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .233/.302/.378 with a 95 wRC+

Positional match: Barger has a giant arm and strong mobility which permits him to suit at third base or in both outfield nook. In his temporary MLB cameo earlier this season, his dash pace ranked within the 62nd percentile and he uncorked a throw over 100 mph — one thing solely eight different gamers have managed in 2024.

Playing at third base would imply taking at-bats away from Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ernie Clement, whereas video games within the outfield would possibly eat into Kevin Kiermaier’s taking part in with Springer and Varsho comparatively firmly in place.

What’s the influence potential?: Barger is in a little bit of a candy spot as a result of he’s skilled, however he nonetheless has upside. He possesses among the energy Martinez brings to the desk, however he’s two years older and has carried out at a better degree in Buffalo.

Add within the reality he brings a lefty bat to a lineup that would use extra from that aspect of the plate, and it is sensible that the Blue Jays referred to as on him earlier within the season.

Unfortunately for Barger, he didn’t shine in his temporary style of the sport’s highest degree, managing one hit in 18 plate appearances with six strikeouts. His bat-tracking knowledge steered he introduced notable bat pace to the desk, however that didn’t end in tangible manufacturing.

Barger’s Triple-A numbers are spectacular and his projections are respectable, however his efficiency towards high-velocity pitches is a pink flag. At Triple-A he’s solely managed two hits towards pitches 95 mph or extra and each got here off the bat at lower than 80 mph.

Spencer Horwitz

AAA stats: .316/.438/.456 in 208 plate appearances with 2 house runs and a 140 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .253/.340/.372 with a 108 wRC+

Positional match: The reality the Horwitz profiles as a 1B/DH is his greatest impediment in the direction of making a big-league influence.There’s an argument to be made that he’s an improve over Daniel Vogelbach as a lefty pinch hitter/occasional DH proper now, but it surely’d be tough for him to search out vital taking part in time on a membership that employs Justin Turner and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Horwitz has performed some left subject within the minors, however he’s solely began three video games there in 2024, suggesting that’s not an possibility in severe consideration for the big-league membership.

What’s the influence potential?: Of all of the gamers on this checklist, Horwitz is the one almost definitely to carry his personal offensively within the majors. The 26-year-old has dominated Triple-A pitching in every of the final two seasons and has some glorious projections to indicate for it.

He additionally produced strong numbers in 15 video games with the Blue Jays in 2023, posting a 106 wRC+. Horwitz’s numbers towards velo are good too as he has a .407 wOBA versus pitches 95 mph or extra over the past two seasons at Buffalo.

The subject he faces is whether or not an offensive profile that skews in the direction of on-base capacity over energy is one the Blue Jays need to function of their 1B/DH slots — notably contemplating the group lacks energy. 

Although his projections are strong, it’s additionally affordable to be skeptical in regards to the scalability of his endurance as a result of big-league pitchers are higher at attacking the zone than their minor-league counterparts — and his comparatively modest energy may not create sufficient of a deterrent for him to maintain up a large stroll charge.

Nathan Lukes

AAA stats: .336/.404/.504 in 146 plate appearances with 5 house runs and a 137 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .256/.313/.364 with a 95 wRC+

Positional match: Lukes can play across the outfield, however he’s spent much less time in centre currently with simply 11 professional begins there because the starting of 2023.

Looking at Lukes primarily as a nook outfielder, his street to taking part in time would probably require an damage to one of many group’s starters or maybe a Kiermaier commerce. The Blue Jays outfield image is a bit murky as a result of they’ve so many infielders able to chasing flyballs like Cavan Biggio, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Davis Schneider, however no devoted fourth outfielder.

A world the place Lukes will get some run might be one the place Toronto nonetheless has aggressive aspirations in 2024, however is coping with accidents. Considering he turns 30 in July, he’s a participant the Blue Jays are prone to name on in the event that they really feel like he can present immediate assist versus a prospect they need to take an extended take a look at.

What’s the influence potential?: Lukes is a troublesome participant to interpret as a result of on one hand he hit .360 at Triple-A final yr and he’s following that up with a .336 mark. Alternatively, his age is related and he’s been working primarily at that degree since 2019.

Multiple undertaking programs see him as an above-average hitter within the majors and that’s corroborated by the very fact he has a .465 wOBA towards high-velocity pitches over the previous two years.

That stated, the Blue Jays have had Lukes within the group since 2022 and have given him 31 at-bats on the highest degree. He’s on this checklist resulting from his sturdy Triple-A manufacturing and 40-man roster standing, but when the group perceived him as somebody able to altering their offensive woes they’d’ve dealt with him otherwise since he joined the group.

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Leo Jimenez

AAA stats: .248/.405/.376 in 158 plate appearances with 4 house runs and a 115 wRC+

Average FanGraphs projection: .238/.320/.344 with a 95 wRC+

Positional match: Jimenez is a reliable shortstop who has dabbled at second base in recent times. He has the instruments to play across the infield in idea, however he’s solely performed one inning at third base in his professional profession.

Getting a prolonged take a look at quick would require a Bichette damage — or commerce if the season goes down the drain. Neither of these issues are unattainable, but when Jimenez’s time comes, it’s simple to think about him sliding in at second.

What’s the influence potential?: Some of the extra optimistic projection programs have Jimenez nearing league-average manufacturing; it’s unlikely that he’ll be a part of some form of offensive turnaround in 2024.

If Jimenez makes it to the large leagues the Blue Jays will likely be within the all-around contribution he’s in a position to make versus seeing him as somebody who particularly boosts their run-scoring capabilities.

That stated, Jimenez deserves loads of credit score for his stellar .405 OBP at Triple-A this season and he has produced a max exit velocity (109.0 mph) that’s higher than Horwitz or Lukes, and just like Davis Schneider (109.3 mph).

Jimenez’s offensive profile brings to thoughts comparable inquiries to Horwitz as his capacity to attract walks will not be scalable on the MLB degree and he has only one hit on high-velocity pitches this season.

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