Blue Jays' Davis Schneider quietly building on rookie breakout

Davis Schneider entered 2024 as one of many Toronto Blue Jays’ most high-variance gamers with each an unsure function and a difficult-to-project offensive profile.

In most instances, if a participant produces an OPS over 1.000 as a rookie — even in a comparatively small pattern — he returns the following season with loads of hype and a locked-in beginning job. Schneider was in a special boat for a few causes.

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The first is that his prospect pedigree is minimal. Schneider is a Twenty eighth-round choose whose manufacturing didn’t actually stand out till his fifth professional season in 2022 which took him from High-A all the best way to Triple-A. If he’d been a excessive draft choose who’d spent years and years on high prospect lists, his outburst on the MLB degree would’ve been met with much less skepticism.

Schneider’s statistical profile in his major-league cameo was additionally peculiar.

There’s no doubting his bottom-line numbers, however it’s notable that he put up large energy numbers regardless of a pedestrian common exit velocity (89.5 mph) and max exit velocity (108.8 mph). His anticipated numbers have been strong, however his xBA (.214) and xSLG (.459) fell approach under his precise numbers (.276 and .603).

Add in the truth that a lot of his manufacturing got here in a single flurry upon arriving and he carried a 30.5 % strikeout charge — it’s straightforward to understand Schneider’s 2023 as an aberration and stay unsure about him.

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While that’s a good place simply 58 video games into his MLB profession, what the Blue Jays have seen from Schneider in 2024 hints at his capacity to have sustained success on the highest degree — maybe much more so than the fireworks he produced final yr.

Although his .228/.333/.456 line is modest in comparison with 2023’s numbers, it provides as much as a 131 wRC+. Not solely is that an incredible quantity, it’s additionally one Schneider has earned with minimal assist from luck.

In truth, he might have been a bit unfortunate within the early going contemplating a .263 BABIP and anticipated numbers that outshine his precise manufacturing, which runs in distinction to final yr’s sample.

Numerous the distinction right here isn’t about how Schneider is hitting the ball — though it’s value noting his common exit velocity is 1.5 mph tougher than final yr — however how usually he’s making contact.

In 2023 Schneider’s contact charge of 64.9 % was extraordinarily low. In the earlier 20 seasons, simply 20 certified hitters (out of two,910) have whiffed at a better charge. It was most likely truthful to anticipate the 25-year-old to expertise some optimistic regression from that outlier lead to 2024, however maybe not the step ahead the Blue Jays have seen to this point.

Schneider nonetheless swings at air greater than the common hitter, however the distinction between going from the underside of the barrel towards the center of the pack is notable.

Unsurprisingly, that has introduced his strikeout charge right down to a decent quantity (24.2 %) and made him far much less weak in two-strike counts. In 2023 when pitchers acquired Schneider up towards the wall they tended to place him away. That hasn’t been the case as a lot in 2024.

Both of those are comparatively small samples, however it appears clear that Schneider’s improved capacity to make contact helps him stave off strikeouts — and that’s opened the door for some optimistic outcomes for the Blue Jays.

His greatest recreation showcasing this enchancment got here again on April 8 towards the Seattle Mariners. Schneider’s first notable effort in that one got here with the bases loaded within the third when he was in a position to poke a 2-2 Luis Castillo slider into centre for a two-run hit.

Schneider’s capacity to stick with the slider particularly has stood out as his run worth per 100 on that pitch (9.0) ranks fourth within the majors and his whiff charge has dropped from 39.6 % in 2023 to 21.1 %.

Five innings later, he took a 1-2 Brett de Geus curve on the nook and hit it the opposite approach.

Last season Schneider had simply 11 hits with two strikes and he’s already at seven to this point in 2024 in lower than half as many plate appearances. 

If Schneider have been a slap hitter then an uptick in his contact charge and subsequent drop in strikeouts can be a wholesome growth that may not transfer the needle. In his case, the impression is critical as a result of when Schneider isn’t taking place on strikes he’s typically doing spectacular issues. 

The energy (.295 ISO) and persistence (13.5 % stroll charge) he’s proven in his younger MLB profession present the inspiration for fulfillment on the plate. The standard knowledge has been {that a} bloated strikeout charge may erode the bedrock of that offensive profile, although.

Although we’re too early within the season to problem that notion definitively, Schneider is exhibiting indicators that his capacity to make contact may find yourself being a extra noticeable blemish than a deadly flaw. That won’t sound like a large distinction, however it may have a radical impact on the younger slugger’s profession.

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