Estimating the cost of Bichette’s absence from Blue Jays’ lineup

When the Toronto Blue Jays acquired Paul DeJong on the commerce deadline, the hope was that he might elevate the staff’s flooring on the shortstop place till Bo Bichette’s return from a knee damage.

Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, DeJong has produced the worst offensive stretch of his seven-year MLB profession since becoming a member of the staff.

Instead of closing the hole between the staff’s present backup shortstop choices and Bichette — albeit by a reasonably modest diploma — DeJong has created a large gulf between what the Blue Jays might’ve fairly anticipated from their star shortstop and what they’ve gotten from the place currently.

Since Bichette’s final recreation on July 31, the Blue Jays have gotten a .115/.115/.135 line from their shortstops, good for a -43 wRC+. Unsurprisingly, that’s the worst quantity within the majors over that span with the Twenty ninth-ranked staff — the Miami Marlins — producing a 9 wRC+.

In phrases of uncooked manufacturing, Toronto has gotten six hits (5 singles and a double), two runs, and three RBI from the place in additional than half of a month. Those measures don’t completely seize offensive contributions, however right here’s a comparability between them and what Bichette — who performs primarily each day when wholesome — has averaged over the identical variety of video games (15) in 2023.

At the very least the Blue Jays have in all probability missed out on a few runs through the lengthy ball, and contemplating the place Bichette hits within the lineup it appears truthful to imagine 14 extra hits would’ve translated to a couple extra runs right here and there.

If we need to get a bit extra particular on that, there are two different methods to method it. One could be through WAR. The variations between Bichette and DeJong range relying on which WAR system you utilize, and Santiago Espinal’s restricted time at brief in latest weeks is simply too small a pattern to spit out a WAR complete. 

That means we’re estimating a bit right here, nevertheless it nonetheless provides us a way of what Toronto has misplaced.

Whichever approach you slice it you’re 1.4 wins or roughly 14 runs. You can in all probability shave 0.1 or so off of that for Espinal, however we’re nonetheless a couple of win within the standings by general manufacturing.

Another method to sort out this comparability could be to have a look at win chance added. That statistic doesn’t all the time paint an correct image of a participant’s true expertise, nevertheless it captures contribution to profitable and that’s what we’re right here.

Since becoming a member of Toronto, DeJong’s WPA sits at -0.84. Meanwhile Bichette has generated roughly +0.19 per 15 video games this season. That’s a distinction of 1.04 wins, however Espinal’s contributions are simpler to gauge right here and his two robust video games at brief between Aug. 10 and Aug. 12 resulted in +0.30 WPA, placing the distinction right down to 0.74, or about three quarters of a win.

There is not any good method to seize the distinction between a star shortstop and a struggling fill-in over such a small time period — particularly with out contemplating defence, which is borderline unquantifiable in such a small pattern.

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Even so, it appears truthful to imagine that Bichette’s absence has value Toronto roughly one recreation in August. Considering the Blue Jays have taken three one-run losses in his absence, the fitting distribution of his hits would possibly’ve made an much more pronounced distinction. 

We don’t know precisely what he would’ve performed when, however we do know with virtually ironclad certainty that he would’ve given Toronto greater than it’s gotten for the reason that starting of August.

Just one victory is a large distinction contemplating a participant who generates a win above substitute each 15 video games is nearly sure to win MVP. The bar was decrease than substitute degree for Bichette, however the reality it’s affordable to ascribe that large an influence to his absence exhibits how good he’s been this season.

With the Blue Jays sitting only one recreation forward of the Seattle Mariners within the battle for the final spot within the American League wild-card race, it’s clear the staff wants Bichette again. The Blue Jays’ postseason destiny might simply come right down to a recreation or two, and their star shortstop’s absence has already taken a tangible toll.

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