MLB Playoff Push: Can Blue Jays hold off the surging Mariners?

With Sunday’s win over the Chicago Cubs, the Toronto Blue Jays achieved one thing they hadn’t since July 29 — win on the identical day that the Seattle Mariners misplaced.

Seattle’s loss on that Saturday in July dropped it to 53-51, 5.5 video games again of the ultimate wild card spot and behind the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels.

Since then, nevertheless, the Mariners have gone 10-3 — together with an eight-game win streak — to catapult themselves previous all of the groups on the surface trying in and simply 1.5 video games behind the Blue Jays.

Toronto has gone 7-8 in that very same stretch, getting inconsistent outcomes from collection to collection. Heading into this week, the Blue Jays will get two off-days, a welcome reprieve following their 17-games in 17-days stretch.

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Now simply 42 video games from the top of Toronto’s common season, let’s take inventory of the place all of the AL wild card and AL East contenders stack up as we enter the stretch run.

IF THE POST-SEASON BEGAN TODAY

No. 1 and AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles (73-45): Bye

No. 2 and AL West-leading Texas Rangers (70-48): Bye

No. 3 Minnesota Twins (62-58) vs. No. 6 Toronto Blue Jays (66-54)

No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (71-49) vs. No. 5 Houston Astros (68-51)

WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

With the 12-team playoff format returning for 2023, the addition of a 3rd wild card spot continues to wreak havoc on the playoff image.

The Mariners, Yankees and Red Sox are all inside 5 video games of the Blue Jays, and regardless of dropping beneath .500, the Angels stay within the image, simply 6.5 again.

The Cleveland Guardians — 8.5 again within the wild card — might additionally issue into the AL Central image, as they path the Twins by 4.5 video games.

THE LATEST WITH EACH TEAM IN AL EAST/WILD CARD CONTENTION

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles did the Blue Jays a favour this previous weekend, halting Seattle’s win-streak and successful the three-game collection with a pair of extra-innings wins. Centre fielder Cedric Mullins made his return to the staff on Friday from a groin harm, and made his impression felt on Sunday, robbing a go-ahead dwelling run within the ninth and hitting a go-ahead homer within the tenth.

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Texas Rangers: Despite key cogs Nathan Eovaldi, Josh Jung and Jonah Heim not too long ago lacking time attributable to accidents, the Rangers have saved on successful. They are 10-2 in August, and have gotten excellent manufacturing from their rotation for the reason that commerce deadline. The group of Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery and Jon Gray has pitched to a 2.41 ERA over that stretch whereas putting out 30.1 per cent of hitters they’ve confronted and strolling simply 5.7 per cent.

Minnesota Twins: The Twins, just like the Rangers, have obtained sturdy beginning pitching this month. Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda all have sub-2.00 ERAs in August, and have picked up six of the staff’s eight wins. Minnesota has one of many best remaining schedules in baseball, with simply 12 of its remaining 42 video games coming towards groups at the moment in a post-season spot.

Tampa Bay Rays: After beginning July 4-14, the Rays have began to proper the ship. They have received 4 of their final 5 collection, beating the likes of the Astros, Yankees and Guardians. However, Tampa Bay will now be with out Wander Franco for at the least its upcoming six-game highway journey as MLB investigates social media posts surrounding the shortstop. It can even be with out star pitcher Shane McClanahan for the remainder of the season attributable to a forearm harm.

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Houston Astros: The Astros have received 4 straight collection — all towards groups within the playoff hunt — however haven’t been capable of make up a lot floor within the division, due to the play of the Rangers. Houston is 9-4 in its final 4 collection. Jose Altuve’s return to the lineup has supplied a spark for the Astros, because the 2017 AL MVP is slashing .406/.493/.641 in his 16 video games again.

Toronto Blue Jays: Like lots of the contenders within the American League, Toronto’s pitching has carried the load. Since the All-Star break, the Blue Jays’ workers owns an MLB-best 3.24 ERA, whereas holding opposing hitters to a .235 common towards. The offence, in fact, has struggled in the identical stretch, scoring 4.48 runs per sport. The Blue Jays play simply 5 video games within the subsequent eight days as off-days bookmark their collection towards the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds.

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Seattle Mariners: In what was seemingly a transfer to take a step again on the deadline, the Mariners’ pitching workers hasn’t missed a beat since delivery Paul Sewald to Arizona. Since the deadline, the group has a 2.56 ERA and has opposing hitters hitting simply .185 towards them. Seattle could have the best remaining schedule of any staff in post-season competition, with six video games towards the Oakland Athletics and 7 towards the Kansas City Royals. It does have a troublesome end to the season, nevertheless, with its final 9 video games coming towards the Rangers and Astros.

Boston Red Sox: After being swept by Toronto within the first week of August, Boston has taken benefit of its smooth schedule, going 5-2 towards the Royals and Detroit Tigers. The Red Sox begin a three-game set with the Washington Nationals Tuesday, earlier than turning to one of many hardest remaining schedules. Once it’s finished in Washington, Boston has six video games remaining towards groups below .500 and 21 video games towards AL East opponents. However, the returns of Trevor Story and Chris Sale have the membership on the healthiest it’s been for all of 2023.

New York Yankees: Hanging on by the pores and skin of their tooth, the Yankees are slowly shedding floor within the standings. They are simply 6-10 since Aaron Judge’s return to the lineup and solely introduced in reliever Keynan Middleton on the deadline. Since Judge got here again, New York pitchers have given up the eleventh most runs in baseball, and the offence has carried out simply above league common with a .242/.336/.402 slash line.

At the Letters

Ben Nicholson-Smith is Sportsnet’s baseball editor. Arden Zwelling is a senior author. Together, they create you probably the most in-depth Blue Jays podcast within the league, protecting off all the most recent news with opinion and evaluation, in addition to interviews with different insiders and staff members.

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Los Angeles Angels: After going all-in on the commerce deadline, the Angels haven’t been capable of string wins collectively. They really strung seven-straight losses collectively as quickly because the Aug. 1 deadline handed. The staff’s new additions haven’t carried out very properly since becoming a member of Los Angeles, as Reynaldo Lopez is the one new Angel to generate a constructive WAR. So whereas Mike Trout’s imminent return and the mere presence of Shohei Ohtani are positive to assist decide up some wins in September, it seems that the Angels could have fallen too far again to make up floor on at the least 4 of the groups above them.

PLAYOFFS ODDS REPORT

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Monday, by way of playoff odds amongst AL groups battling for post-season spots.

Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 98.2% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.5%

Texas’ FanGraphs odds: 91.7% | Texas’ Baseball Reference odds: 97.5%

Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 90.3% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 89.4%

Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 95.7% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 91.7%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 90.3% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 84.9%

Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 66.1% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 70.3%

Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 34.2% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 44.3%

Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 15.9% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 8.8%

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 6.1% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 2.4%

Los Angeles’ FanGraphs odds: 1.6% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: 0.6%

Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 8.8% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 9.9%

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NOTABLE GAMES/SERIES THIS WEEK

PHI @ TOR: After sweeping the Blue Jays earlier within the season, the Phillies come to Toronto with their two finest pitchers set to take the hill. While Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler haven’t fairly pitched to the requirements they’ve set of their careers, they’ve proven flashes of brilliance this season, and each held Toronto to 2 or fewer runs in May. Yusei Kikuchi and Kevin Gausman will get the ball for the Blue Jays, so runs can be robust to come back by within the two-game set at Rogers Centre.

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LAA @ TEX: With the Angels’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread, they begin a three-game collection in Texas. Ohtani was initially scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, however requested to skip the beginning attributable to “arm fatigue.” Meanwhile, the Rangers will ship Scherzer, Montgomery and Gray to the mound as they give the impression of being to push their AL West foes even additional out of competition.

SEA @ HOU: Later this week, the Mariners and Astros will kick off a three-game weekend set at Minute Maid Park. Seattle at the moment leads the season collection 5-2, and can get an opportunity to make up floor each in-division and within the wild-card race. While no possible pitchers have been introduced but, it seems unlikely that both Luis Castillo or Justin Verlander will throw this weekend.

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