What it means to be in 1st place entering August
It’s August, which suggests it is the start of the stretch run. The Home Run Derby and All-Star Game have handed, the Trade Deadline is as we speak, and playoff implication-laden baseball is taking heart stage.
It would possibly really feel like if a crew isn’t in playoff place proper now, it could possibly be time to start out worrying. But is that true? For groups hoping to win the division, it’s undoubtedly getting near crunch time.
Let’s check out what it means to be in first place in a division getting into August and what the playoff discipline might appear like. Note, all stats beneath exclude the shortened 2020 season and as a substitute take a look at full seasons for the influence and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place (or not be there)
Since 1996 — the primary full season with not less than one Wild Card in every league — 113 of 156 eventual division champions held not less than a share of their division lead getting into August 1. That’s 72 % of division winners.
Take notice, Orioles, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Reds and Dodgers followers — these are the groups that at the moment lead their divisions.
Last season, three of the six division leaders on August 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Yankees and Astros every gained their divisions, whereas the Twins, who led the AL Central getting into August, missed the postseason solely. In the NL, the Dodgers gained their division, however the Mets and Brewers, who led the East and Central getting into August, respectively, didn’t. The Mets have been a Wild Card, however the Brewers missed the playoffs.
Since 1996, 15 of the 26 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions getting into August. Before the Astros final 12 months, the final winner in a full season to take action was the 2018 Red Sox.
One factor that stands out rapidly on the standings web page: each division chief besides the NL East’s Braves leads by fewer than three video games. This is simply the second time because the break up to 6 divisions that as many as 5 groups have been inside fewer than three video games getting into August. It additionally occurred in 2011, additionally with 5 of the six.
Four of the division leads are fewer than two video games. That’s essentially the most such division leads getting into August on this span. In the aforementioned 2011 season, the 5 leads in query have been all both two and a half or two video games.
The AL East and AL Central
We’ve lined the truth that the AL East could possibly be traditionally sturdy, but it surely bears a recap right here. The division has a mixed .562 successful proportion, which might be the best by a division in a single season. The present report for a five-team division? .541 by the 2022 AL East.
All 5 AL East groups are above .500. If you’re curious, the newest right into a season that a whole division has been above .500 was the NL East in 2005, in line with the Elias Sports Bureau. All 5 groups have been over .500 via October 1, the second-to-last day of the season. The Nationals then misplaced their finale to complete 81-81.
On the flip facet, the Twins lead the Central at 54-53, a .505 successful proportion. The lowest successful proportion by a division winner in a full season was .506, by the 82-80 Padres within the 2005 NL West.
Of this 12 months’s present division leaders getting into August, every has had not less than a share of that lead getting into August not less than as soon as since 2016, besides the Reds – who have been final on this spot in 2012. The Twins, Rangers, Braves and Dodgers have every gained their divisions not less than as soon as since 2016. The Reds final did so in 2012, the Orioles in ‘14.
October is rapidly drawing nearer, however there’s nonetheless loads of baseball left to be performed. But followers of the six division leaders can take some consolation in figuring out that traditionally, virtually three quarters of these groups have gone on to win their divisions. And for followers of groups that aren’t in playoff place, there’s nonetheless loads of hope — whereas 72% of those groups go on to win their divisions, meaning 28% don’t.
Now, all of us get to observe and see what occurs.
