What advanced numbers tell us about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s slow start at the plate

Baseball

Published 22.06.2023

What advanced numbers tell us about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s slow start at the plate

The 2023 Toronto Blue Jays season has included plenty of gamers producing at a stage under their projections, however the one who has earned a lot of the highlight lately is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

With 76 video games within the books, the star first baseman is hitting .275/.345/.423 — good for a 115 wRC+. That manufacturing is much from disastrous, however it doesn’t replicate what Guerrero has been able to prior to now.

Most of the issues surrounding the 24-year-old are along with his energy. He has solely 9 house runs to his identify, and his remoted slugging has fallen off even though energy manufacturing is up across the league.

These outcomes aren’t simply puzzling as a result of Guerrero has confirmed he has extra energy than that in his bat in earlier years. His Statcast numbers and batted-ball profile are additionally comparatively just like what he produced in his MVP runner-up season in 2021 — a marketing campaign the place he hit 48 house runs.

Guerrero’s numbers are barely worse this yr than they had been throughout his breakout throughout the board, however the similarities are noticeable. What we’re seeing now could be nearer to his MVP type than his 2020 and 2022 seasons.

He’s not hitting the ball on the bottom greater than half the time like he was in these years, and his common exit velocity and launch angle numbers are the second-highest marks of his profession. He’s even operating a career-high hard-hit fee (55.9%).

That makes the largest query why the quality-of-contact numbers that appear like this …

… aren’t leading to elite manufacturing.

Just a few components are at play. One of them, indisputably, is luck. In 2021, the primary baseman hit a line drive or fly ball at 100+ mph on 4.7 per cent of the pitches he noticed — and 73.7 per cent of these balls became hits.

Guerrero has produced a triple-digit liner or fly on the identical proportion of his pitches seen this season (4.7%), however simply 60.4 per cent of these batted balls have turn into hits. It’s clear that he’s had greater than his justifiable share of bullets discover gloves — like this 115 mph liner into the mitt of Oswaldo Arcia.

This isn’t fully a matter of being snakebitten, although. Guerrero is coping with a elementary problem with the kind of flyballs he’s hitting.

When it involves energy, we will simply put apart his grounders — as a result of they account for the occasional double and nothing extra — and line drives, as a result of his energy manufacturing is as robust on them this yr (.979 SLG) because it was in 2021 (.957 SLG).

When we take a look at flyball outcomes, that’s the place the dramatic variations reveal themselves.

We are likely to assume that if Guerrero places the ball within the air, his power and bat pace will generate elite outcomes, however that hasn’t been the case this yr.

One huge purpose for that’s that the slugger has constantly been hitting the ball to the biggest a part of the ballpark.

No one doubts Guerrero’s capacity to clear the centre-field wall when he actually will get behind the ball, however hitting 48.0 per cent of his flies up the center shouldn’t be a recipe for constant success. For slightly context, between 2019 and 2022 Guerrero hit simply 39.1 per cent of his flies to centre.

Those batted balls have resulted in only one hit this season.

Pulling the ball within the air is much simpler mentioned than completed, however there’s little doubt it’s one of the simplest ways to generate robust energy numbers. There’s a purpose Danny Jansen has as many house runs as Guerrero regardless of having inferior uncooked energy and taking part in simply 44 video games.

Guerrero has hit simply 11 flyballs to left all season, good for a 22.7 per cent pull fee. That’s not too far off his 2021 quantity (26.0%), however the delicate distinction is being felt.

Placement is a matter, however the truth Guerrero is much less productive on flyballs to all fields than he normally is can’t be ignored — and is tougher to clarify. His common exit velo on flyballs (96.2 mph) is just like his 2021 mark (96.7 mph), and his launch angle (37.7) can be paying homage to his 2021 quantity (36.3).

Sure, he’s hitting the ball barely softer and getting underneath it slightly extra, however it doesn’t appear to be sufficient to account for the distinction. One factor that might be consuming into his flyball manufacturing is Guerrero’s house park, the place he has but to go yard in 2023.

Rogers Centre has hosted simply 32 video games since its renovation, so we’re delving into the hypothesis zone right here, however to this point Statcast ranks it as one of many worst parks for righties to hit house runs this season. It has a Park Factor of 92 for right-handed home-run hitting, which is twenty first within the majors.

Meanwhile, the three areas Guerrero known as house in 2021 — the place he hit 31 house runs — had been all ranked as wonderful venues for right-handed energy that season.

These numbers are compelling however they arrive from far smaller samples than we typically use to guage how ballparks play. There are some compelling correlations there, however we have to see extra of the brand new Rogers Centre to know the way it impacts hitters.

Unfortunately, there simply aren’t too many clear conclusions to be drawn from Guerrero’s lack of ability to show elite contact into elite numbers in 2023.

The Blue Jays must be inspired by the truth that loads of what he’s doing on the plate is strongly correlated with success. His strikeout and stroll charges are robust, he’s preserving the ball off the bottom higher than he did final yr, and he’s not too far off a few of his 2021 requirements in uncooked contact high quality.

There’s an argument to be made that loads of what he’s completed is extra spectacular than his 2022 work, regardless of the dearth of outcomes. Even so, he appears to be getting dragged down by a myriad of small components like his tendency to sq. hit-balls within the air and drive them to straightaway centre, versus getting out in entrance of them and pulling them down the left-field line.

A bit extra luck ought to come Guerrero’s method, and we’ll be taught extra about whether or not the new-look Rogers Centre is having a adverse impact on him over time. For now, the 24-year-old in all probability isn’t almost as misplaced as he’s checked out instances, and loads of endurance is warranted for a participant who’s doing so many issues proper.